Arsenal's Premier League season all comes down to the next two games against Tottenham and Man City. They need four points. It's as simple as that.
If they get anything less, then you start to worry because you're playing catch-up against a machine in Man City.
If they draw against Spurs and lose at Man City a week later, they're probably going to be seven points behind and I think that would be it.
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I know there are 30-odd games left but I just can't see how they make up the seven points.
I was very bullish last year saying Arsenal would definitely win the North London Derby but I'm not so sure this season - and it's a game they can't afford to lose in the title race.
I'm a bit worried for Arsenal without the suspended Declan Rice and Tottenham being at home.
Last season, Arsenal dominated and then all of a sudden they let in a goal and you could only see one result, and that was Tottenham coming back.
I don't think there's a lot wrong with Tottenham at the moment. They have been bang unlucky. They could easily be sitting on nine points and top of the league.
Tottenham dominated Leicester and then should have got a draw against Newcastle at worst. They end up drawing and losing those two games.
With experience, you make sure you don't get beat at Newcastle and at Leicester when it did go 1-1, they didn't look like they were going to score again and that would have been worrying.
But that comes with experience and another year and another year. Look how long it took Man City to win the Champions League.
It's the same with the Premier League, the manager would have come away and gone, you know what, we should have just not lost against Newcastle.
At the time you're thinking if they don't win this game, they've just dropped two points.
There's not a lot in it at the moment with Spurs. They've not been as bad as what people probably think only because of the points they've got. The performances haven't been that bad.
Solanke takes Spurs to next level but what do Arsenal have?
Dominic Solanke is a good signing and takes Tottenham to another level.
What he's got to get used to is if you miss a few good chances then you're under the microscope. With no disrespect, when you're playing for Bournemouth and you miss three chances, there are no headlines about it. He'll have to get used to being at a big club and putting his chances away.
When he starts scoring, I think he could get 20 goals this season whereas Arsenal might be short of a centre forward. I'm not sure they did enough in the transfer window.
With Rice suspended, you'd think Kai Havertz probably drops back into midfield because Mikel Merino is injured. Gabriel Jesus is injured - and wouldn't score 20 goals - and they got rid of Eddie Nketiah, so now you're looking at having to play someone else up there.
He could play Leandro Trossard or even Raheem Sterling but that's a big ask for a winger to play up front at a new club.
You might get away with it for two or three games playing a false nine, but you wouldn't want to go seven, eight, nine games with one.