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Tottenham Hotspur are playing well but losing games anyway - but this time, the problem might not be ‘Spursiness’ at all, but a specific player...
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Getting a handle on Tottenham Hotspur hasn’t been easy this season. How can a side take Manchester United to pieces at Old Trafford and then blow a comfortable 2-0 lead to Brighton just a week later? How can a side thrash West Ham with ease, only to immediately hand Crystal Palace a first win of the campaign?
It’s easy to dismiss this inconsistency as archetypally ‘Spursy’. The same old psychological issues, the same tendency to crumble under pressure, the same failure to turn stylish football into tangible results. We’ve seen it all before, after all, and this season’s performances fit the narrative nice and neatly.
Perhaps as a consequence, there hasn’t been much analysis of the root causes of the up-and-down results that we’ve seen under Ange Postecoglou since the summer. But I wanted to dig deeper after doing a deep dive on some stats which suggested that Spurs should be doing rather better than they are.
Coming into Sunday’s Premier League match against Aston Villa (a top four contender actually in the top four, rather than five points and four places beneath it), Tottenham are currently second in the league for volume of possession, completed passes, total shots and expected goals – Manchester City alone edge them out on all four metrics. Only three teams have conceded fewer goals and only four allowed fewer expected goals against them.
They have made the second most tackles (behind Manchester United) and have the third-highest percentage of successful tackles (after United and Everton). They have dribbled the ball further than any team except for City. Wherever you look, the numbers suggest that Spurs have been playing like a top four side – perhaps even a title contender. So what gives?
Most Premier League supporters would probably shrug and say that it’s just the same old Spurs, and certainly you can peg a few of their more disappointing results as the consequences of mental failings. The 2-1 loss to Newcastle United, a game they controlled for large periods. The 3-2 defeat to Brighton, which bore all the hallmarks of a complete collapse. But how fair is that portrayal?
I went back and watched all 10 goals that Spurs have shipped this season, looking for patterns, for tactical errors that crop up repeatedly. In truth, it wasn’t immediately easy to find one. There are a few goals from low crosses, but nothing to suggest a systemic issue in that department. Last season, it was often set pieces that proved to be the problem, but only Gabriel’s winning goal in the North London derby came direct from a corner or free-kick. It was only when watching Danny Welbeck’s winner at the Amex Stadium back that I spotted a common denominator at last – Cristian Romero.
The 26-year-old Argentine has been outstanding since joining Spurs back in 2021, but this season he has been at fault far too often. It was Romero who lost concentration and allowed Welbeck to saunter in behind him to meet the cross for that third goal in Sussex. Romero who made an unconvincing effort to intercept a cross against Crystal Palace, got in the way of his own man and nowhere near the ball, and allowed Jean-Philippe Mateta the space to score. Romero who lost Gabriel from that corner at the Emirates.
Depending on how harsh of a judge you wish to be, Romero can fairly be said to have been directly culpable for between four and six of the 10 goals that Spurs have shipped – whether it’s walking back towards the box and failing to notice Harvey Barnes’ late run for Newcastle’s opener at St. James’ Park, or missing a tackle he went for on Kaoru Mitoma just ahead of Brighton’s equalising goal.
The strange thing is that Romero has, as a whole, actually not played badly. In general, his play has been just fine. He’s even been making more tackles and forcing more turnovers than he has in previous seasons, and the statistics, taken out of the context of specific mistakes, would suggest that he’s improving in line with a high-class player entering his peak years.
Perhaps Romero has simply been rather unlucky – maybe he has made no more mistakes than any other defender, but they are being punished disproportionately. Perhaps this is just a blip and normal, more reliable service will resume from this weekend forward. But the inescapable fact is that Spurs have conceded more goals than they should have, and Romero is the primary reason. The mistakes have been costly, too, coming in games decided by the odd goal.
That isn’t to say that Romero deserves the entirety of the blame for Spurs’ middling and uncertain start to the season, of course, and equally he has had plenty of interventions which have helped to prevent goals. There are issues going forward, too, with Spurs looking inefficient in front of goal – Dominic Solanke has yet to fully settle in and Spurs are currently converting shots into goals at a relatively poor rate of one in ten, less than Ipswich Town. They are currently scoring at around the right rate, compared to their xG, but top four sides usually outstrip that fairly comfortably.
What it is to say is that Postecoglou may need to determine whether this really is just an anomaly, a blip, that will go away with time, or whether Romero is a potential problem – and the way he strolled back to the box for Barnes’ goal, or completely lost concentration against Brighton to let Welbeck in, does raise some alarming red flags. This hasn’t just been an issue of competency, but of focus, judgement and awareness, and it has hit Spurs disproportionately hard.
The good news is that Romero is a proven high-level player, and a gambling man would surely back him to tighten things up in the long run. The further good news is that Spurs are controlling games, creating opportunities and playing, in most regards, like a team that can contend for the top four. The only bad news is that a fair bit of damage to their chances of Champions League qualification has already been done. A defeat to Aston Villa this Sunday would hit those chances even harder. Romero is an injury doubt, but if he plays, he can’t afford another costly lapse.