This week, Manchester United hosts Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League's marquee match, featuring two underperforming teams vying for European qualification. Both clubs aim to turn their fortunes around after falling short last season, but five games into the new campaign, neither has established itself as a top contender for a Champions League spot.
Currently, Manchester United sits at 11th place while Tottenham is just above them at 10th, with both teams accumulating only seven points ahead of their clash at Old Trafford on Sunday. United's situation worsened after a disappointing draw against Twente in the Europa League, while Spurs managed to relieve some pressure with a victory over Qarabag.
Both managers, Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou, are feeling the heat early in the season. A loss in this match could intensify criticism of either coach, raising the stakes for this encounter.
Historically, Manchester United has been dominant at home against Tottenham, winning 24 Premier League matches—only Arsenal has more home wins against a single opponent. Given this history, it's no surprise that statistical projections favor United, albeit narrowly. In simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, United has a 41.1% chance of winning, Spurs have a 34.6% chance, and the remaining 24.3% is projected for a draw.
Tottenham, however, comes into this match with a positive streak, remaining unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against United, with one win and two draws following a stretch of four consecutive losses.
United's season has been marked by an inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. In their most recent match against Crystal Palace, they dominated possession but failed to convert their five clear chances into goals, resulting in a frustrating goalless draw. With injuries affecting key players like Rasmus Hojlund and Bruno Fernandes yet to find the net this season, United's offensive struggles have been evident.
The team has recorded an expected goals (xG) tally of 9.6, the third highest in the league, but has only managed to score five times, indicating a significant shortfall. New signing Joshua Zirkzee has been highlighted for his xG, and Marcus Rashford, who may return to the starting lineup, has a solid history against Spurs.
Tottenham's form has been inconsistent, though they rebounded from two Premier League losses with a crucial win against Brentford. The team has shown resilience, gaining points from losing positions, but their away form has been a concern. Under Postecoglou, Spurs have struggled on the road, garnering only 14 points from their last 15 away matches.
If they are to contend for a top-four finish, improving away performance is critical, starting with this fixture against a direct rival.
For Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes is pivotal, having taken the most shots without scoring in the league this season. His involvement in attacking sequences has been significant, making him a crucial figure for the Red Devils.
For Tottenham, Son Heung-min is expected to play a key role, having created the most chances from open play in the Premier League. His ability to contribute both goals and assists will be vital for Spurs as they seek to capitalize on their scoring opportunities against United.
As both teams look to find their footing in the league, this clash at Old Trafford promises to be an exciting encounter filled with pressure and potential turning points for both clubs.