Manchester City will be looking to bounce back at the first attempt from their weekend defeat when they travel to face Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on Wednesday evening (UK time).
Pep Guardiola’s side lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool on Sunday afternoon, although there was no shame in being second-best against the current Premier League leaders. That defeat aside, City’s recent form has been pretty good, so they should be quietly confident as they head to north London for this fixture.
Before the setback against Liverpool, Manchester City had won three (W3-D0-L1) of their previous four Premier League fixtures. The defeat in that run came against Arsenal, so they have only lost recently against the top two.
Even more instructive is seeing how City have fared against sides that, like Tottenham, are currently in the bottom-half of the table. In such matches, City are W4-D2-L0, which would be another reason to be confident ahead of this trip.
It is worth noting, however, that three of their four wins vs sides currently in the bottom-half of the table were against the bottom three. The clubs in question – Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Southampton – look the division’s weakest, and potentially by some distance.
For a more accurate guide to how this game might unfold, it is perhaps more pertinent to consider solely City’s away matches vs bottom-half sides above the bottom three. Their W1-D2-L0 record in such games suggests they may not have things all their own way here.
The head-to-head record indicates the same thing. City lost the reverse Premier League fixture 4-0 at home to Tottenham on November 23. They also lost 2-1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium when these two sides met in the EFL Cup on October 30.
Tottenham are eight places (12th vs fourth) and 11 points behind City in the Premier League standings. Their home form is a concern: they are W1-D1-L3 from their last five Premier League fixtures in front of their own fans.
Their home form against sides that, like Manchester City, are currently in the top six is also a concern: Tottenham are W0-D0-L3 in such fixtures this season. They lost 6-3 to Liverpool, 1-0 to Arsenal, and 2-1 to Newcastle United.
Best bet
As our odds table above shows, Manchester City are 2.05 (21/20) favourites to win. Tottenham Hotspur are 12/5 (3/4), while the Draw is 16/5 (4.2).
While we understand Tottenham being the underdogs, do the visitors really deserve to be as short as 2.05 to win? Those odds are the market’s way of saying that the visitors have a 49 percent chance of collecting all three points.
Given that City have won just one of three away games vs sides currently in the bottom-half of the table above the bottom three, and have lost both previous head-to-head encounters against Tottenham this season, we would have some reservations about backing Guardiola’s players to pick up all three points from this midweek trip.
Taking all factors into account, we would rather look elsewhere for picks on the game.
High Goals the Smart Selection
The strongest trend on games involving these two sides this season has been the propensity goals, and lots of them.
Eighteen of Tottenham’s 26 Premier League games have featured Over 2.5 Goals (ranking them third in the division in this particular category). City have gone one better: 19 of their 26 Premier League games have featured Over 2.5 Goals (ranking them second). In other words, 71 percent of these sides' combined Premier League games have featured three or more goals this season.
The same applies to 10 of Tottenham’s 13 home matches and nine of City’s 13 away matches. So 73 percent of the relevant home and away games have had three or more goals as well.
Given these stats, it is not surprising to find that Over 2.5 Goals is a short price of 1.33 (1/3) on this game. For that reason, you may prefer to look at Over 3 or Over 3.5 Goals instead.
Twelve of Tottenham’s 26 matches and 12 of City’s 26 matches (46 percent of their total games) have featured four or more goals. The same applies to seven of Tottenham’s 13 home matches, and nine of City’s 13 away matches. This second Over 3.5 Goals trend is especially strong: 62 percent of the relevant home and away games have featured three or more goals.
Best bet
As our odds table above shows, Over 3.5 Goals is available at a best-priced 1.85 (17/20). The statistics on Tottenham’s home games and Manchester City’s away games point so strongly towards this being a high-scoring encounter that we are happy to make Over 3.5 Goals our main pick on the game.
Top selection – Over 3.5 Goals (1.85)
Split Your Stakes on This Special Selection
In a game the market expects to be high-scoring, one of the props (or special) bets worth considering is in the To Score In Both Halves market.
Tottenham are 3.0 (2/1) to score in both halves, with Manchester City 2.25 (5/4) to do the same.
It would be no surprise if either or potentially both sides scored twice in the game. That is not the same, of course, as saying that we expected them to score in both halves. But the odds on them doing so have some appeal given that we expect the game to be high scoring.
Best bet
Rather than backing one or other team in the To Score In Both Halves market, our suggestion would be to split your stakes across the two teams. By doing so, you would make a profit if either of the teams scores in both halves (as well as, of course, if both do).