The start to the 2024/25 season for Tottenham Hotspur could be a future case study on analytics. Many of the numbers believe this squad is off to a solid start: dominating possession, controlling the pitch, but ultimately getting a bit unlucky in terms of actual goals and results. Of course, this meant that Wednesday’s terrible outing against Coventry had to end up in a victory.
Whether this was the result needed to finally get on track or just a lucky 10 minutes against a mid-table Championship side will be determined over the next couple weeks. Spurs return to league action against a beatable Brentford side, and a quality outing will start validating the frustrating opening month to the year. Anything other than three points, however, may make the midweek success look like a meaningless blip.
Tottenham Hotspur (t-13th, 4pts) vs. Brentford (t-9th, 6pts)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 10:00 am ET, 3:00 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: Peacock (USA)
Brentford has alternated wins and losses to start the season, with the defeats coming against Liverpool and City. The Bees do have a pair of League Cup triumphs, including a win over Leyton Orient on Tuesday to advance with Spurs into the next round. After finishing just outside the relegation zone last year, Brentford is expected to end up down there again. The club already sits at 15th in xGD on the young season.
Tottenham earned a point at the Gtech to open up the 2023/24 campaign, with Cristian Romero and Emerson Royal getting on the scoresheet. The reverse fixture had plenty of intensity, with Destiny Udogie, Brennan Johnson, and Richarlison quieting the antics of Neal Maupay in an eventual 3-2 victory. Spurs are just 2-3-1 against Brentford since its promotion to the Premier League, however.
Avoid the sting
While the metrics debate has mostly focused on Spurs’ inability to convert possession into goals, there is also the lingering issue of too easily conceding when the ball is lost. Goals against Leicester and Newcastle were emblematic of this issue, and despite the quality across the Tottenham backline, opponents are more than happy to take their chances on the counter.
Spurs will get a little relief in this department with the injury to Yoane Wissa. The Brentford forward already has three goals and an assist in the league, and with Ivan Toney gone and Igor Thiago out as well, there is not an obvious place to look for scoring now. What this means is the home side has no excuse to not lock down in defense and keep a clean sheet. Letting these lapses continue to cause dropped points is inexcusable and damaging.
Unlocked combination
Spurs came into the season with dozens of options for the top half of the formation but after five matches — and some injury-forced decisions — it is starting to look more clear as to who Ange Postecoglou must select. Dejan Kulusevski seems like an awkward fit at basically every spot, but he simply offers something that no one else does. Brennan Johnson is a flawed product, but he looks closest to a Postecoglou winger and did well to finish the comeback against Coventry.
Brentford gave City all it could handle, and Thomas Frank’s press will try to make Tottenham uncomfortable on the ball. While there are many more matches ahead, including the start of the Europa League journey next week, it might be beneficial to roll with the best XI for a bit and find that groove against a side that is fifth-worst in xGA. How Spurs respond, especially the regulars who were subbed on midweek, will show if these team is truly capable of finally capitalizing on so much early possession.