Those on Team Europa League still probably view the Premier League as a lost cause, but I will admit it is intriguing to see Tottenham Hotspur now within 10 points of sixth place. While it would take a lot of clubs slipping for Spurs to sneak into the European spots — and the simplest path to Europe next year is just winning the Europa League — the window is cracked back open.
An actual run in the league would require stealing some points, though I am not sure beating Manchester City would even be close to a heist. Though the reigning champions are betting favorites and the superior squad on paper, they are struggling (relative to expectations) just as much as Spurs this year and are playing for very little themselves. Tottenham always shows up for this fixture, and the chance is there to make it four straight in the league.
Tottenham Hotspur (13th, 33pts) vs. Manchester City (t-5th, 44pts)
Date: Wednesday, February 26
Time: 2:30 pm ET, 7:30 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: Peacock (US), TNT Sports 3 (UK)
February has not been kind to City. Wins over Leyton Orient (in the FA Cup) and Newcastle are the only bright spots, with Real Madrid knocking them out of the Champions League and Arsenal and Liverpool both claiming three points against them domestically. This is a lost season; it was bound to happen at some point, but still is shocking to witness after four consecutive Premier League titles.
Tottenham has continued to play its role as City’s boogeyman, winning 2-1 in the League Cup this October thanks to Timo Werner (lol) and Pape Sarr goals in North London. A month later, it was a slaughter at the Etihad, with James Maddison (twice), Pedro Porro, and Brennan Johnson all getting in on the fun in what was one of the few highlights this season.
Measuring heart
It is bizarre to watch City fall off so sharply. The attack is still the third-highest in the league — just one goal behind Spurs — but the defense is midtable, which is an uncommon sight. Injuries have played a major role (sounds familiar!), with John Stones and Manuel Akanji both sidelined for a while, though Ruben Dias looks set to feature. The midfield, however, is perhaps the bigger issue, with Rodri out most of the year and Kevin De Bruyne clearly in decline.
On the other side, things are surprisingly looking up in North London. Djed Spence and Kevin Danso have injected life into the defense, while recent returners such as Maddison, Johnson, and Guglielmo Vicario are making this look like an actually solid squad. Add in the fact that City-killer Heung-Min Son had his best outing in weeks against Ipswich, and there is no debate as to which team is in better form heading into this showdown. It is hard to quantify these things, and form has hardly seemed to matter in past fixtures, but I like where Tottenham is heading into this showdown.
Balance
That being said, Ange Postecoglou needs to keep the big picture in mind. Whether by design or timing, it seems notable that the manager is prepared to hold back his first-choice center backs, and his two true No. 9s, against City, saving them for next week’s winnable — but critical — Round of 16 tie against AZ Alkmaar.
As much as Postecoglou would love to field his best XI on Wednesday, the reality is that beating Alkmaar is a much bigger priority than getting one over on City right now. Perhaps lessons have been learned from rushing players back too soon, but this feels like an acknowledgement of what matters most down the stretch. Beating Pep Guardiola is always satisfying, but it cannot come at the expense of the Europa League.