Football writer Tom Hancock looks at key stats and tactical points ahead of Matchweek 9.
Team analysis - Tottenham Hotspur
After watching his team blow a 2-0 half-time lead to lose 3-2 at Brighton & Hove Albion before the international break, Spurs head coach Ange Postecoglou stated his desire to “change the perception” of his side.
Such change, the Australian boss said, would come from being “relentless in our approach” – something the north Londoners definitely were not in the second half at the Amex Stadium.
Thumping local rivals West Ham United 4-1 upon their return to Premier League action certainly suggested “relentless” – and Spurs equally showed great character in coming back from 1-0 down to make it three home league wins from four this season.
In all of those victories, Spurs have scored at least three goals, having beaten Everton 4-0 and defeated Brentford 3-1, and exerted the superiority of a top team.
Heading into another London derby, away to Crystal Palace on Sunday, Spurs sit seventh in the Premier League and trail leaders Liverpool by eight points – but are they, in fact, title contenders themselves?
A creative force
Eight matches into the 2024/25 campaign, Spurs are sitting pretty atop the Premier League Expected Goals (xG) chart.
Their non-penalty xG (NPxG) of 16.95 – they’ve not actually been awarded a penalty yet – is 2.09 greater than that of the second-ranked side, Chelsea, and 2.17 ahead of champions Manchester City. They’ve made their creativity count, too, scoring 18 goals – the second-most in the league behind City, with 19.
Spurs are averaging 2.11 NPxG per game, an increase of more than 10 per cent on their average at this stage last season, when they led the Premier League on goals scored ahead of arch-rivals Arsenal.
It’s important to note that we are still less than a quarter of the way into the current campaign, but Spurs have been exceptionally creative so far. Indeed, they boast the leading individual creator in the league right now: James Maddison, who has accumulated 3.6 Expected Assists (xA) in 615 minutes.
During Saturday’s triumph over West Ham, Postecoglou’s team chalked up 1.92 non-penalty xG to the Hammers’ 0.78. That was the continuation of a theme for Spurs: in all four of their Premier League wins this season, they’ve posted an NPxG figure at least TWICE as big as the opposition’s.
Spurs' non-penalty Expected Goals v opponents'
Opponent Result Spurs' NPxG Opp. NPxG Leicester D 1-1 1.18 1.05 Everton W 4-0 2.43 1.00 Newcastle L 2-1 1.26 1.83 Arsenal L 1-0 0.71 0.74 Brentford W 3-1 3.52 0.80 Man Utd* W 3-0 4.59 0.96 Brighton L 3-2 1.34 1.76 West Ham W 4-1 1.92 0.78
*Man Utd reduced to 10 men in 42nd minute
As the data above shows, when Spurs win, they win dominantly. If they can consistently show the relentless streak Postecoglou wants, they seem well-placed to climb the table based upon their underlying attacking numbers.
Making territorial gains count
Spurs' impressive xG output is the mark of a side consistently getting themselves into threatening positions – a fact underlined by their possession and touch data.
In the Premier League this season, only Man City have seen more of the ball, averaging 65.4 per cent possession to Spurs’ 61.9 per cent, or had more touches in the opposition box – 404 to Spurs’ 355.
It follows, then, that Spurs are taking among the highest number of shots in the league. Again, City are the only team to outrank them – albeit only marginally, having had 105 non-penalty attempts to Spurs’ 99 so far. And the team from the capital boast a higher NPxG per shot.
Ranking for NPxG per shot 2024/25
Team NPxG/shot (attempts) Team NPxG/shot (attempts) Chelsea 0.18 (80) Man Utd 0.14 (85) Spurs 0.17 (99) Fulham 0.14 (79) Aston Villa 0.17 (68) Bournemouth 0.13 (90) Brentford 0.17 (66) Nott'm Forest 0.13 (71) Southampton 0.17 (56) Everton 0.13 (65) Liverpool 0.16 (86) West Ham 0.12 (87) Newcastle 0.16 (67) Leicester 0.12 (61) Arsenal 0.15 (88) Crystal Palace 0.11 (73) Brighton 0.15 (78) Wolves 0.11 (64) Man City 0.14 (105) Ipswich 0.11 (54)
Despite averaging more than two goals a game, Spurs are being let down somewhat by their finishing, which feels strange to say but emphasises how terrifyingly devastating they could be.
They have scored from only nine of their 29 big chances, giving them a below-average big-chance conversion rate of 31.03 per cent. But their two primary goal threats on paper, captain Son Heung-min and headline summer signing Dominic Solanke, have both had slightly injury-disrupted starts to the campaign.
Son has converted two of his three big chances in the Premier League this season, having put away a rather clinical 12 out of 19 in 2023/24. And, while Solanke has only scored from two of eight big chances in his six league outings for Spurs so far, he posted a big-chance conversion rate of 50 per cent for AFC Bournemouth in the league last season.
That said, it’s not as though Spurs are over-reliant on Son and Solanke. They have had eight different scorers in 2024/25, the joint-highest number in the Premier League, with six of those netting at least twice: Son (three), Brennan Johnson (three), Solanke (two), Dejan Kulusevski (two), Maddison (two) and Yves Bissouma (two).
Clubs with most different scorers 2024/25
No. of scorers Spurs, Brighton, Bournemouth 8 Arsenal, Fulham 7 Liverpool, Man City, Brentford, Leicester, West Ham 6
Keeping things tight
Quite a lot has been made of Spurs’ perceived defensive weakness, but does that narrative really hold up? Let’s take a look at the underlying numbers once again.
For starters, only four Premier League teams have a lower figure for Expected Goals Against (xGA) than Spurs’ 8.9 this season, with only Liverpool at 6.2 being significantly more miserly than Postecoglou’s men by that telling metric.
Spurs’ actual tally of nine goals conceded is none too shabby either. It’s bettered only by Arsenal (eight), Newcastle United (eight) and Nottingham Forest (six), and it would be even lower if not for some frustrating individual lapses at the back.
A case in point was Johnson’s slow reaction to Mohammed Kudus’s movement before he scored West Ham’s opener last weekend.
But that’s rather nitpicking, and Spurs appear more defensively sound than they did last season, when they gave up 64.5 xG and conceded 61 goals en route to finishing fifth.
Building a fortress at home
At home, they have already restricted the opposition to 1.0 xG or lower on four occasions this campaign, as many as they did in the whole of last season.
It’s not quite taken on fortress status yet – Spurs have lost three of their last 10 home league games – but the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a difficult place to go, and a difficult place to create chances and score goals.
Are Spurs the real deal? There are still some creases that need to be ironed out, but the underlying numbers point to one of the most well-rounded teams in the Premier League right now.
Big tests are coming up in the form of Aston Villa, Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool between now and Christmas. But all of those are home fixtures, an opportunity for Spurs to add a moat and drawbridge to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, perhaps.
The signs are promising – and perceptions do change.