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Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the midweek card of Premier League fixtures.

Chelsea vs Leeds, Tuesday 7.30pm

One of my favourite betting angles this season is centre-forwards committing fouls on centre-backs.

This season's Premier League is a bruising product to watch. The data and the eye test are telling the same story in that the league has tilted back towards directness with far more emphasis on winning first contact. And when that happens, centre-forwards don't just score goals, they start giving away fouls.

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The result? Centre-backs are being fouled more often than the market expects.

Joao Pedro has come to life under Liam Rosenior, putting in some electric performances as the central striker where he's also been making a healthy number of fouls. In six starts as the centre-forward under the new boss. he's made eight fouls. Joe Rodon is in the firing line then when it comes to fouls drawn where he is a bulky 4/1 with Sky Bet to be fouled +2 times.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Everton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm

Everton midfielder James Garner looks a strong play to hit +2 fouls in this one at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has hit this mark in 10 of his 20 starts in central midfield this season, showing he's no stranger to getting his foot in at key moments.

Bournemouth's Alex Scott, meanwhile, has been a magnet for fouls, drawing 14 in his last eight appearances. The battle between Garner and Scott in the middle of the park should see the Everton man commit a couple of challenges as he tries to disrupt Scott's rhythm.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: James Garner +2 fouls committed (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm

Just two wins in 16 Premier League games has left Tottenham a mere six points from safety and suddenly flirting with the drop.

Sky Bet aren't messing about either. Spurs are now just 10/1 to go down.

If they don't find form fast and West Ham keep winning, that relegation scrap could get very real indeed. This is getting serious.

Spurs are easily swerved here at 19/10 with Sky Bet too having won just one of their last 11 Premier League home matches.

Meanwhile, when the chips are down Eddie Howe usually delivers a result for Newcastle and he'll be using the frustration within the home fanbase as a weapon in the hope the north London faithful turn on their team. That's why a fast start is expected which makes the half-time/full-time market for Newcastle/Newcastle at 5/2 with Sky Bet a smart way to boost the odds on an away win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8.15pm

One of the standout bets on the midweek card is Crysensio Summerville to have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in Premier League defences lately, registering nine shots on target in his last six matches.

Nuno Espirito Santo's tactical system is clearly suiting Summerville, giving him the freedom to drift into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United side that has shown vulnerability out wide, expect Summerville to be buzzing for another attempt on goal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Crysensio Summerville +1 shots on target (Evens with Sky Bet)

Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm

Brighton's wobbles are a great betting edge to exploit. Just one win in 12 games isn't a blip, that's a crisis - yet the markets still have them priced as a dangerous outfit. Villa, notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, are on offer at 10/11 with Sky Bet for maximum points. That looks generous based on what Brighton are serving up.

Fabian Hurzeler's side are struggling for creativity and confidence. The end could be near for him as Brighton boss.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Crystal Palace vs Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm

Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove on his debut. It wasn't always pretty or easy on the eye but he made his presence felt in that 1-0 win Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance shows a striker visibly eager to impose himself and to make a statement.

Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That's potentially almost two yellow-card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the aura of a striker playing like it's only a matter of time before he oversteps, mistimes a challenge or lashes out in frustration. Like he did at Brighton when stopping an attack with a cynical pull of the shirt.

Strand Larsen is a striker - sure - but a striker who's touchy, combative, and clearly wants to make a mark. The odds are gigantic at 19/2 with Sky Bet for a card.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)

Manchester City vs Fulham, Wednesday 7.30pm

This version of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City always gives you a chance. It's a far cry from their controlled and possession-obsessed style.

Fulham, meanwhile, aren't here to make up the numbers. Both teams to score have landed in 12 of their last 15 games and they've managed that feat on their last four visits to the Etihad. That's not luck, that's a proven blueprint of being able to hit City on the counter, capitalise on mistakes and play with freedom.

City will score - of course they will - but Fulham are likely to join the party. Both teams to score looks a bet at 4/5 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm

Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Make no mistake, there's bad blood there.

Every touch will be scrutinised, every run will be jeered and if he gets on the scoresheet, the emotions are going to explode.

Gibbs-White isn't shy either. He's combative, fiery and at 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and pick up a card, the value is screaming. Picture the scene: a Gibbs-White goal sparks celebrations in what has become a very big game now for Forest. The shirt may come off which triggers a booking.

Combine the two through the Sky Bet BuildABet function and 10/1 looks like a steal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Sunderland vs Liverpool, Wednesday 8.15pm

If you want a betting market that rewards understanding football match-ups rather than predicting perfection, the "to be fouled" market is as good as it gets.

Bookmakers price fouls largely off averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully account for is role within a specific match-up. Like a foul-heavy centre-forward playing up against a wily centre-back. That's what we have here.

This isn't about Van Dijk losing control or his cool. That rarely happens.

It's about Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific type of duel against his opponent in Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.

Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, which is a huge number for a striker operating in a possession-dominant side. Even more telling is the recent trend of nine fouls across his last six games where he is bullying big-name opponents. Van Dijk is 10/11 with Sky Bet to win +1 fouls.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Brentford vs Arsenal, Thursday 8.15pm

Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless rate, conceding here and there and making life very, very hard for anyone trying to keep them quiet. That is a perfect cocktail for backing the over 2.5 goals line when the odds flirt around the Even money mark. Their last 13 games are averaging 3.4 goals per 90 minutes and 10 of those matches have gone over 2.5 goals

Even without Brentford contributing, Arsenal alone could easily cover this line. They've hit three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 matches. That's ruthless attacking form from a team who know exactly how to punish mistakes.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)

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Jones Knows' best bets:

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Thomas Frank said Tottenham are "desperate" for wins as they prepare to face Newcastle in a crunch Premier League match on Tuesday night.

Spurs' winless run in the league was extended to seven games by Saturday's 2-0 loss to Manchester United.

Their last Premier League victory came on December 28 when Archie Gray scored to seal a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park - and you have to go back to December 6 for their last home win in the league, when they beat Brentford 2-0.

Similarly, their midweek opponents are without a win in four league games.

"There's no doubt we are desperate to win games, desperate," said Frank.

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"There should be that feeling when we haven't won enough.

"The way I work - we're all different - is that if you haven't won enough, you do everything you can and you actually do a little bit more and you work a little bit harder. You just know that's the way to get out of tough moments.

"That's what I expect from players and I actually think that's what I see from the players. They run very hard and that's why I'm so annoyed we couldn't get anything out of the Manchester United game.

"I'm convinced, if it had been 11 vs 11, we would have got something out of it.

"We haven't won enough - you need to be desperate, because if you're not desperate you don't understand the situation you are in.

"That's what we want for the fans, that's what we want for the team, the club."

The Dane side-stepped a question on whether Tottenham are in a relegation battle, with just six points currently separating them from 18th-placed West Ham.

"I'm focusing on Newcastle tomorrow [Tuesday]," he said. "That's a great opportunity ahead of us against a good team.

"That's the main thing. Can we go out there and get three points tomorrow? That will be very good and then climb from there. Look forward, that's what we need to do. That's the main focus.

"I think we have [the quality to get out of this situation]. There are a lot of players out and that, of course, never helps.

"But I think I actually put a very competitive team out against Manchester United and we looked good for the first 30 minutes.

"We lost two players for tomorrow [Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie], but Djed Spence is back and [Radu] Dragusin looked good when he came back in.

"I know we'll put a very competitive team out tomorrow as well and then there should be hopefully a few more coming back after that, but let's see."

Frank: Romero needs to learn from red card

Frank was asked whether Spurs captain Romero is a leader or a liability following his red card against Manchester United.

"We spoke enough about Romero in the last press conference," said Frank. "For me, he's a leader. I've said it before, he's a young leader, learning every day.

"I used the example that, when I was 30, thought I was top of the world - I was nowhere near the level I am today, in terms of leadership and understanding things.

"When you have a player playing with so much passion and aggression, sometimes, things like that can happen.

"That's not to say he should not learn from it. Of course he needs to learn from it going forward."

Udogie set for another month out; Kulusevski return date unknown

Frank also confirmed Udogie is set for another spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

The 23-year-old - who missed December with a hamstring injury - had featured in Spurs' last three games, but came off after 55 minutes in the defeat to Manchester United.

"Unfortunately, Destiny has a hamstring injury, so he's out for the next four to five weeks," Frank said.

He also provided updates on Kevin Danso and Dejan Kulusevski.

"Kevin met the consultant. Going forward, it's still weeks before he's available," he said.

"[Kulusevski] has got another appointment at the end of this week where we will know more.

"But he's out of the Champions League squad, which is a sign that it's not tomorrow."

Asked if Kulusevski could return before the end of the season, Frank added: "I don't know."

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Tottenham 0-2 Chelsea

Chelsea returned to winning ways in the Women's Super League with a 2-0 victory over Tottenham.

In their last two outings, the Blues had been thumped by Manchester City along with a defeat to Arsenal, but they went ahead at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium through Keira Walsh.

Alyssa Thompson doubled their advantage early in the second half as Chelsea stayed third in the standings and went four points clear of Spurs, who remain fifth.

Live Women's Super League table

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Arsenal 1-0 Man City

A wonderful 17th-minute goal by Olivia Smith helped Arsenal consign Women's Super League leaders Manchester City to a first defeat since September.

City had not lost since the opening day of the season but Andree Jeglertz watched the 17-match unbeaten run of his pace-setters end at Emirates Stadium.

Smith raced onto a wonderful Mariona Caldentey pass and rounded Ayaka Yamashita to score her seventh goal for Arsenal.

Even though WSL leading scorer Khadija Shaw threatened before and after half-time, Renee Slegers' side held on for a vital three points.

Liverpool 4-1 Aston Villa

Liverpool moved off the bottom for the first time since November with a fine 4-1 win over Aston Villa.

It took the Reds 12 matches to get off the mark in the WSL this season, but they made it two wins in three after goals by Mia Enderby, Martha Thomas, Grace Fisk and Aurelie Csillag in St Helens.

Enderby and Thomas scored within 14 minutes and while Miri Taylor reduced the deficit before the break, Fisk and Csillag struck late on to help Liverpool leapfrog relegation rivals Leicester.

West Ham 3-2 Brighton

West Ham were set to go bottom after they went two goals down at home to Brighton before they produced a remarkable turnaround to win 3-2.

Manuela Vanegas put Brighton 2-0 up after 63 minutes following Kiko Seike's 40th-minute opener, but Ffion Morgan gave the hosts a lifeline with eight minutes left when her cross caught out goalkeeper Chiamaka Nnadozie.

Shekiera Martinez levelled in the 86th minute before Viviane Asseyi completed the comeback after a goalmouth scramble in the first minute of stoppage time to spark wild celebrations.

London City Lionesses 0-1 Everton

Everton responded to the midweek dismissal of Brian Sorensen with a 1-0 triumph at London City Lionesses.

After a goalless first 45, Inma Gabarro broke the deadlock in the 62nd minute.

It proved enough to help Everton register back-to-back WSL wins for the first time this season after a string of saves by goalkeeper Courtney Brosnan.

Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace

Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace

CHANCE! Gross finds Dunk at the back stick again but his header is off target.

Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace

Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace

Sky Sports News' Gary Cotterill at the Amex:

"The smoke from the pyrotechnics taking time to clear. Some atmosphere already."

Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace

Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace

Let's play!

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Here come the teams!

Time for some "Sussex by the Sea!"

Teams in the tunnel!

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones at The Amex:

“Crystal Palace will hoping that Jorgen Strand Larsen can boost an attack that has been underperforming dramatically in recent weeks. Across the last nine games, Palace are the lowest scorers in Premier League with just five goals.

“Of course, Strand Larsen has no non-penalty goal in 22 Premier League games this season playing in a struggling Wolves side.

“He looked to be fully revved up in the warm-up. Keen to make his mark, no doubt.”

Who's in charge?

Referee: Thomas Brammall

Assistants: Lee Betts, Simon Long

Fourth official: Sam Barrott

VAR: James Bell

'Howell the latest product of famous footballing family'

Sky Sports News' Gary Cotterill at the Amex:

"Brighton’s Premier League debutant Harry Howell is just the latest product of a famous footballing family, the Hinshelwood's.

"His cousin Jack is on the bench today. As is a man at the other end of his career, James Milner.

"Harry is 651 appearances behind him.

"The entire stadium, even Palace fans, are hoping Milner comes on to equal that Premier League appearance record by joining Gareth Barry on 653."

Premier League launches new LGBTQ+ initiative

The Premier League has launched a new LGBTQ+ initiative to bring together and build on the ongoing work of the league and clubs to help deliver long-term change.

All top-flight matches from February 6 to 12 are dedicated to 'Premier League With Pride’, aligning with LGBTQ+ History Month.

This period provides an opportunity to highlight and celebrate the LGBTQ+ community in football, showcasing the work undertaken to make the game more inclusive.

The Premier League With Pride initiative has been developed in consultation with clubs, representatives from LGBTQ+ supporters’ groups and a wide range of stakeholders, with a focus on embedding three core themes throughout the league and clubs’ work: education, celebration and action.

The league is also collaborating with the national LGBTQ+ listening service Switchboard, which provides confidential support to members of the community.

Learn more about Premier League With Pride here.

Milner set to equal Barry's record...

Sky Sports’ Lewis Jones at The Amex:

“James Milner could make a bit of history this afternoon if coming off the bench. It would draw him level with Gareth Barry’s all-time appearance record of 653 Premier League appearances. It’s worth adding that Milner is some way down the list when it comes to most minutes played in Premier League history, 14th in fact owing to his ratio of 62 minutes per appearance. Barry’s for example is up at 83.4 minutes.”

Jones Knows: Back the draw at 13/5

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones:

"Crystal Palace have not won in their last 12 games in all competitions but everyone knows about their current plight. But it's pretty gloomy at Brighton too, who have finally started to prove me right in how much of an overrated team they are. Just one win in 11 games means Fabian Hurzeler is facing huge pressure now.

"And, this is exactly the type of opposition they struggle against: low block, long quick vertical football and a head-to-head record of winning just two of the last 13 games with their rivals. Looking at the match odds, where Brighton are around Evens, market forces are also now becoming cold on this Brighton team which is quite a big pointer that Hurzeler is going to struggle to turn this around.

"Trusting Palace though isn't viable either, meaning the draw makes lots of sense to back at 13/5 with Sky Bet."

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

How they shape up...

Debut for Strand Larsen, Wharton returns

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones:

"Jorgen Strand Larsen makes his Palace debut in the absence of Jean-Philippe Mateta who is waiting to find out if he needs surgery on his knee injury. Adam Wharton is back in midfield after suspension which means Jefferson Lerma moves back into the back three."

What a moment for 17yo Howell!

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones at The Amex:

"A real curveball thrown from Fabian Hurzeler with the call to hand Harry Howell, just 17, a full Premier League debut. He has started just one game for the first team this season in a 6-0 win at Oxford. He looks to be playing on the right of the Brighton front three. Good luck, son.

"There's other changes too. Kostoulas, just 18 himself, makes just his second Premier League start in attack with Danny Welbeck on the bench. There's no Jean Paul van Hecke in the squad so Oliver Boscagli is in."

Crystal Palace team news - Strand Larsen makes debut

Team to play Brighton: Henderson, Richards, Lacroix, Lerma, Munoz, Mitchell, Hughes, Wharton, Sarr, Pino, Strand Larsen

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Brighton team news: Hurzeler rings the changes!

Team to play Crystal Palace: Verbruggen, Kadioglu, Boscagli, Dunk, De Cuyper, Baleba, Gross, Rutter, Mitoma, Howell, Kostoulas

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Hello and welcome!

Oh, we do like to be beside the seaside.

In terms of location this one doesn't fit the bill of a local derby but a rivalry it certainly is. It's one of the biggest games of the season for both fanbases. And boy could both teams do with a positive result.

We're all set at The Amex for a game to savour.

Teams dropping shortly.

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Mateta ruled out ahead of potential surgery

Jean-Philippe Mateta will decide next week whether to have surgery on an ongoing knee issue which quashed his chances of joining AC Milan in the January transfer window, Crystal Palace head coach Oliver Glasner has revealed.

The France forward has been playing with a swollen knee for much of this season and failed a medical in Italy on Transfer Deadline Day, thwarting a move which would have seen him join the Serie A giants for a £26m fee.

Mateta will not feature against Brighton or in next weekend's game with Burnley ahead of his assessment to determine whether to go under the knife this season.

The Palace boss said: "I mention often that we have to manage his knee, so the most important thing is the player's welfare. There were no concerns we have taken a higher risk, we have rested him in some games and training sessions.

"It was not a big surprise that he could fail. He knew it was possible. When you play for two-and-a-half months with a swollen knee, it has to be managed and we all know there is an issue with his knee.

"He was not pleased but when you visit three doctors, you get three opinions. This is what we have right now.

"We have an opinion from an English doctor, one from an Italian, one from French and a German one is coming too who he trusts from when he was a Mainz player.

"We will see another doctor on Monday and then we will sit together and make a final decision. There are two ways to deal with this one - one is to manage it until after the World Cup, he has a dream of playing for France at the World Cup.

"The other option is that he gets surgery. We don't know [which works better for the World Cup]. Surgery could keep him out for two months, it could be three months, or it could be six to nine months."

Jean-Philippe Mateta: Crystal Palace striker may undergo surgery on knee issue, head coach Oliver Glasner confirms

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