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And then there were two. It seems either West Ham or Tottenham will be the final team relegated from the Premier League this season, and, with three games to go, their next matches – both live on Sky Sports – could be decisive in the fight for survival.

Back-to-back wins for Spurs under Roberto De Zerbi has flipped the narrative and pulled them out of the bottom three, where West Ham currently reside, but by the time Tottenham face Leeds on Monday night they could be back in the drop zone.

The Hammers, currently one point adrift of Spurs, would have to beat title favourites Arsenal, who have turned a corner themselves of late, to usurp their rivals, while a repeat of last weekend's defeat at Brentford could prove fatal.

Mathematically, nothing can be decided in this next round of fixtures, but if Spurs open up a four-point gap, then Nuno Espirito Santo's side will find themselves with very little room for manoeuvre and relying on two slip ups from their rivals in their final two games.

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What does Opta's supercomputer say?

There was a big swing in the relegation probabilities after the last round of games as West Ham lost 3-0 at Brentford on Saturday before Spurs produced their most convincing performance of 2026 the following day to win 2-1 at Aston Villa and move out of the bottom three.

Opta's supercomputer is currently projecting West Ham as having more than 80 per cent chance of going down, while Spurs are at 19.3 per cent, which is some turnaround from a week ago.

At the beginning of May, before the win at Villa, Spurs were deemed to have a 59 per cent chance of being relegated but that has shot down, while West Ham's have gone sharply in the other direction. Their chances of going down have more than doubled since then.

The bookies also consider West Ham to be favourites to go down heading into this weekend's games. The Hammers are 1/4 to be relegated, while you can get 3/1 on Spurs.

There is still an outside chance of Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace or Leeds United slipping back into the bottom three. Opta is currently projecting them as having less than a one per cent chance of going down.

Mathematically, 13th-placed Newcastle could still be relegated, but it would require them losing every game and West Ham winning every game as well as a goal difference swing of 17.

Most bookies are offering odds of 125/1 for Leeds and Forest to be relegated, while Palace are up at 150/1, and you will struggle to find bookmakers offering odds on Newcastle.

What does the form tell us?

This has become one of the most competitive Premier League relegation battles of the last two decades, which makes it much harder to predict what is going to happen in the final few weeks of the season.

Recent results at the bottom more closely resemble a title race than a relegation scrap.

Despite the defeat at Brentford, West Ham have been the sixth best team in the Premier League since January 17, when they defeated Spurs 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and they are closely followed by Nottingham Forest.

Spurs' turnaround has been more recent, thanks to the arrival of De Zerbi, and in the four games he has overseen, they have been in the top half for form, picking up seven points, the same total as West Ham over that period.

The form table somewhat challenges the idea that West Ham have a much tougher matchup in their next game.

In Leeds, Spurs are playing the second-best team in the Premier League over those last four matches and the fourth-best team over the last six matches, a period in which Daniel Farke's side have gone unbeaten.

Two of Leeds' wins over that period came against the relegated teams, Burnley and Wolves, but they handled both with ease and claimed a big win against third-placed Manchester United, their first at Old Trafford since 1981. They are not to be underestimated.

Arsenal sit below Leeds - as well as Spurs and West Ham - in the form table over the last four games. They have faced a tougher schedule and appear to have overcome their momentary wobble, but it shows the Gunners are there to be got at.

West Ham also have recent form for denting Arsenal's title bids, drawing 2-2 at the London Stadium in 2023 when Bukayo Saka missed a penalty, and inflicting a 1-0 defeat on the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium in February 2025.

Who has the toughest fixtures?

Only Crystal Palace and Brentford are deemed to have a harder schedule than West Ham by Opta for the Premier League run-in – and their next match is the hardest of them all.

It is never a good time to play the Premier League leaders, but at crunch time in the season, with a first title in more than two decades on the line, this seems to be the worst possible time to be playing Arsenal, who are just three wins from ending their drought.

Especially when you consider the momentum behind Mikel Arteta's side, fresh from defeating Atletico Madrid to reach their first Champions League final for 20 years, and a win over Fulham which showed a return to the formidable form that has brought them here.

West Ham, who are effectively two points adrift of Spurs because of their inferior goal difference, then face a trip to Newcastle before welcoming Leeds to the London Stadium on the final day.

In comparison, Spurs are rated as having the eighth easiest schedule in the Premier League, with Monday's game against Leeds followed by a trip to out-of-form Chelsea, who have lost their last six games in the competition, and a home game against Everton.

How many points needed for survival?

The Opta supercomputer projects 40 points to be enough to secure Premier League survival. In the last nine Premier League seasons, teams finishing on 36 points or more have avoided relegation, which is exactly where West Ham are right now.

Last season, 26 points would have been enough to stay up as an exceptionally poor bottom three of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all made an immediate return to the Championship.

Spurs took advantage of the trio's weaknesses to focus on winning the Europa League as they finished a dismal 17th on 38 points - 13 points above 18th-placed Leicester.

But that luxury for Tottenham is not there this season as they face the very real possibility of relegation to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1977.

Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in the 20-team Premier League era - Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03) - the latter holding the record for the team relegated with the most points with 42.

Watch West Ham vs Arsenal on Sunday, live on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm; kick-off 4.30pm.

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It was meant to be over for Tottenham. No Premier League wins in 2026, and no immediate new-manager bounce under Roberto De Zerbi. The biggest question was whether he would stay around for the first Championship game next season.

But now Spurs are out of the relegation zone and finally have some momentum behind them for the first time in half a season.

De Zerbi arrived promising to keep things pragmatic, knowing he had only seven games to save his new side.

The Italian's methods are normally anything but that. Lewis Dunk, captain of former side Brighton, once referred to his first weeks at the Amex as "horrendous" and a "carnage fortnight" as they attempted to adapt to his demands. The Seagulls subsequently picked up just two points from his first five games in charge.

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That wouldn't do at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - and it hasn't. Only Georginio Rutter's last-minute equaliser for Brighton has stood between De Zerbi and three wins from his first four games.

The goalkeepers baiting opposition and league-topping line-up changes have been tempered but De Zerbi has managed to introduce some of the hallmarks of his coaching to underpin Spurs' sudden improvement. The speed of his impact has been undoubtedly impressive.

There will be valid points raised about the quality of opposition, especially after Aston Villa's raft of changes in Spurs' 2-1 win on Sunday night. But for a team that had not won a single Premier League game in 15 attempts prior to beating Wolves a week earlier, it still took some doing - and now their survival is back in their own hands.

High-pressing, efficient running

The signs of De Zerbi's high-pressing game have become increasingly evident across his first four games to the point that he has the best record of any single manager across the division of winning the ball back in the final third this season - an average of 5.3 times per game since his arrival.

That does come with the caveat of a small sample size but Spurs are on an upward trajectory even within his four games in charge, and have almost doubled the number of times they are winning the ball in those dangerous areas compared to the rest of the season.

Spurs are pressing better by being smarter. Their running numbers have dropped across the board - they are sprinting less and covering around a kilometre less per game than before De Zerbi's arrival, despite the possession stats remaining largely level.

That better organised, front-foot approach is having a different effect than you might expect. Yes, Spurs are winning the ball back closer to the opposition goal but only Xavi Simons' fine strike against Brighton directly owes anything to it. Spurs are barely creating more xG, striking at goal more or even getting shots away quicker than before De Zerbi arrived.

Instead, keeping opposition pressure away from Spurs' own goal is making a significant difference. They have given up less than a goal's worth of xG on average, 0.79xG per game under De Zerbi - a figure almost 50 per cent down from before his arrival when they were shipping 1.52xG every match.

Going by those numbers, Spurs' average goal difference per game has risen from a concerning -0.49xG per match into positive numbers for the first time all season.

There are further signs for optimism with Spurs conceding more since the Italian's arrival than the numbers would suggest. Though they could still be more watertight, De Zerbi can feel unfortunate that two of the four goals his side have conceded came from a Kaoru Mitoma wonder-goal and Nordi Mukiele's long-range deflected winner for Sunderland.

A reinvigorated, industrious midfield

It's worth remembering that not everything was immediately plain sailing for De Zerbi.

The comparison between Sunderland captain Granit Xhaka's numbers alone against Spurs' midfield three in a 1-0 defeat at the Stadium of Light in his first game made for humiliating reading.

In that game, De Zerbi picked the young duo of Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall alongside Conor Gallagher and was badly burned.

"Are two young kids, learning their trade, going to get you out of a relegation battle?" asked Sky Sports' Jamie Carragher after that game.

"The balance in midfield at Spurs is not right. To be fair, the manager's only been there a week or two," added Roy Keane.

De Zerbi prefers players who can play but he did not make the same mistake again, and put his ideals on hold for more industrious options.

Gallagher has been partnered by Rodrigo Bentancur in midfield for each of Spurs' three games since, while Joao Palhinha joined them for the win at Villa on Sunday - the first time all three have started together all season.

What the trio may lack in flair, they made up for in energy at Villa Park, outperforming the home trio of Ross Barkley, Lamare Bogarde and Youri Tielemans despite playing 19 minutes fewer.

They set the tone with a display of tackling, duels and ball-winning superior to their Villa counterparts and dominated the middle of the park.

A lack of balance in that area has dogged Spurs all season, but De Zerbi looks to have settled on a system best-suited to winning the midfield battle.

Thomas Frank tried to do the same but where he fell down in creating enough chances, De Zerbi is having less of a problem.

The De Zerbi factor

Numbers can only tell you so much about De Zerbi's impact. Renowned for his man management and big personality, he wasted no time in building his players up when he first walked through the door.

Reassuring them that he would be at the club next season regardless of relegation, true or not, laid down a long overdue base of continuity. He has demanded positivity and belief, but he has provided it too.

"I try to find the best solution to reach every player," he said before his first win over Wolves. "Sometimes that is analysis videos but sometimes what they have done in their career for other clubs.

"With (Randal) Kolo Muani, if I play with Kolo Muani as right winger it's because he has played in that position. If you go to YouTube, and you go to Kolo Muani (at) Eintracht Frankfurt, you can see he played very well in that position and he scored a lot of goals in that position."

De Zerbi's plan is one Spurs players can buy into. It is working and it is effective. But they, like Marseille and Brighton before them, are buying into the man too. "I see football in a completely different way, I picture it in a different way," Dunk said only months after working with him.

Conor Gallagher finally looks like the player who became Chelsea captain. No surprise when De Zerbi claimed his side were "playing with 12 men" owing to the performance of the goalscoring 26-year-old at Villa on Sunday.

"Every player in the squad has taken to him, everyone trusts him, he makes you feel good, confident, he's bringing the best out of players and it's only the start," Gallagher told TNT Sports after Sunday's win.

"Hopefully we can keep learning from him and build a great team."

A great team can wait for the moment. In the last three games, survival will do. And for the first time in a while, there is a genuine belief Spurs might just do it.

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Tottenham breathed new life into their battle to stay in the Premier League with a 2-1 victory at Champions League-chasing Aston Villa to move out of the relegation zone.

West Ham's 3-0 defeat at Brentford on Saturday opened the door for Spurs, and Roberto De Zerbi's side stepped confidently through it as the battle to beat the drop took a plot twist.

Spurs looked a different side under De Zerbi. The way they pressed and won back possession all over the pitch was reminiscent of De Zerbi's Brighton, giving every indication Spurs will have enough to stay in the top flight next season.

Aston Villa, who made seven changes from their Europa League semi-final first leg defeat to Nottingham Forest, were second best from the very first whistle as first-half goals from Conor Gallagher and Richarlison as good as finished the game as a contest.

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The expected Villa resurgence never came in the second half and despite Emi Buendia's stoppage-time header, it was Spurs' night as they produced arguably their best performance of the season at such a crucial point in the campaign.

Spurs, who now have back-to-back wins in the league since their first two games of the season, are now one point above 18th-placed West Ham with three games of the season left to play and favourites to beat the drop, and with a home game to come against Leeds, after the Hammers host Arsenal, their position could be even better next week.

However, De Zerbi was remaining cautious.

"It's not finished yet, the season," he said. "We have to play another three games, very tough games, starting Monday night, with Leeds.

"Leeds are playing very well. They deserve to stay in this position in the table. We can't forget what the situation was before Wolverhampton - and before that it was a very sad situation. These memories have to stay in our head every day, especially this week after this win."

While it was Spurs' best performance of the season, Villa produced their worst display of the campaign, with their attention clearly on Thursday's Europa League semi-final second leg against Nottingham Forest.

Villa, who stay fifth with a six-point cushion to Bournemouth in sixth, have suffered three straight defeats in all competitions and missed the chance to all but seal a Champions League spot for next season.

Unai Emery's men now have to produce a response from a lacklustre display to overcome a one-goal deficit against Forest on Thursday.

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De Zerbi: Spurs showed what we are capable of

Spurs boss Roberto De Zerbi to TNT Sports:

"We played against Aston Villa and Aston Villa is a very good team, with a lot of very good players and a great manager, but we played very well for 60 minutes, I think, with the ball, without the ball.

"Then we suffered Watkins, we suffered Buendia, we concede a goal. The only bad thing on the pitch was the goal we conceded.

"We could have scored more goals, especially in the first half, but I'm pleased for this performance from my players. I know how much they suffered this season and for that I'm very proud."

On what pleased him the most about Spurs' performance, he added: "The high pressure, for sure, because the high pressure is a mentality. Then the possession because we played very, very well, with calm. When we had to attack the space or to go to shoot, we did. When we had to keep the ball, we did.

"I love playing football. Especially if you have these players in the squad, my job is to help them, to put them in the right condition to play, to show what they are capable of doing."

Emery: We must accept this defeat

Aston Villa boss Unai Emery to TNT Sports:

"We didn't deserve more. Today, Tottenham played a very good match. They scored two goals so quick and then they dominated the first half more than we planned.

"Good reaction in the second half; we were pushing more, playing better than the first half. We tried to react, scoring one goal, but we only achieved it at the end of the match. We must accept this defeat.

"Yes (we were below our standard in the first half), but we were playing against Tottenham. They are in the bottom, but they are a very good team.

"Last week we lost against Fulham and which players played against Fulham? We played against Nottingham Forest and we lost. Today we lost with different players."

On Thursday's Europa League semi-final second leg, he added: "It's a different match, a different competition. We're in the semi-finals and of course we are going to enjoy the match and enjoy the process. To play in the semi-final of the Europa League is fantastic. I don't play one match like this in three years here.

"The supporters forget we are having a fantastic season and we are on the same points as Liverpool on 58."

Story of the match in stats

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Roberto De Zerbi has spoken of his pride at seeing his Tottenham team beat Aston Villa, but warned against forgetting the situation his side were in just a matter of weeks ago.

Having lost to Sunderland in his first game in charge on April 12 and then drawn 2-2 against former club Brighton six days later, prior to the trip to Wolves on April 25, the north London club were sat 18th in the Premier League table, two points from safety.

But after beating the division's bottom side, then Champions League-chasing Villa, Spurs have not only won back-to-back league games for the first time since the first two games of the season, but leapfrogged the Hammers into 17th with three games remaining.

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Speaking to TNT Sports after the final whistle at Villa Park, De Zerbi said: "We played against Aston Villa and Aston Villa is a very good team, with a lot of very good players and a great manager, but we played very well for 60 minutes, with the ball, without the ball.

"We could have scored more goals, especially in the first half, but I'm pleased for this performance from my players. I know how much they suffered this season and for that I'm very proud. The only bad thing on the pitch was the goal we conceded.

"It's not finished yet, the season. We have to play another three games, very tough games, starting [next] Monday night, with Leeds.

"Leeds are playing very well. They deserve to stay in this position in the table.

"We can't forget what the situation was before Wolverhampton - and before that it was a very sad situation.

"These memories have to stay in our head every day, especially this week after this win."

The Italian was also asked what pleased him most on Sunday evening.

"The high pressure, for sure, because the high pressure is a mentality," he said

"Then the possession because we played very, very well, with calm. When we had to attack the space or to go to shoot, we did. When we had to keep the ball, we did.

"I love playing football. Especially if you have these players in the squad, my job is to help them, to put them in the right condition to play, to show what they are capable of doing."

And he reserved special praise for man of the match Conor Gallagher.

"When Conor Gallagher played well, we played with 12 players," De Zerbi said. "He's an amazing player.

"Today also, Randal Kolo Muani and Mathys Tel, they played a fantastic game. Joao Palhinha and [Rodrigo] Bentancur were incredible. The two centre-backs, with the ball and without the ball. I'm very pleased."

Gallagher: Hopefully this is just the start

Tottenham's Conor Gallagher speaking to TNT Sports:

"It was a fantastic performance. Exactly what we needed.

"Everything we did in the week leading up to the game, we showed tonight and we're really happy with the performance and three points.

"It's been a perfect night, but hopefully it's only the start. We want to carry it on for the last few games of the season.

"It's massive for us and hopefully our confidence can start growing and we can keep playing games like that."

"I can't speak highly enough of him [De Zerbi]. He's been so good.

"Every player in the squad has taken to him, everyone trusts him, he makes you feel good, confident, he's bringing the best out of players and it's only the start.

"Hopefully we can keep learning from him and build a great team."