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Nicolas Jackson outscoring Didier Drogba at Chelsea, Timo Werner's Roberto Firmino-esque running - The Radar

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Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:

🔵 Jackson showing his value and potential

💨 Werner's off-the-ball running analysed

🔍 Man City's vulnerability from fast breaks

Jackson outscoring Drogba for Chelsea

Nicolas Jackson goes into Chelsea's clash with Manchester United on Super Sunday having reached 20 Premier League goals against Newcastle. Only five players have hit the milestone in fewer than his 44 appearances for the club. Didier Drogba is not one of them.

Get instant access to this weekend's live Premier League football on Sky with a NOW Day or Month membership

Drogba needed 50 games to reach the 20-goal mark and while Jackson has much to do to even come close to matching his achievements in a Chelsea shirt, his superior scoring rate, at only 23, underlines his value and potential. At the same age, Drogba was still playing for Le Mans in France's second tier.

Jackson's youthfulness leaves room for improvement but he has come a long way already. He arrived from Villarreal last year with only 16 top-flight starts behind him. For much of last season, he had to manage the pressure of being Chelsea's only available striker.

The circumstances were challenging but he produced an encouraging debut campaign, after overcoming a difficult start, and his progress has accelerated in the new one. Only Cole Palmer, Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland and Bukayo Saka have registered more goal involvements this term.

His rate of productivity has nearly doubled. Last season, he averaged a goal or assist every 148 minutes in the Premier League, with 14 and five respectively. This term, that figure stands at just 77, his six goals and three assists coming from only 695 minutes played.

It is little wonder that, despite being three years Jackson's senior at 26, Christopher Nkunku is finding it so difficult to unseat him. The France international has only started one Premier League game this season. Jackson's continued improvement means his wait for more playing time is likely to go on for longer.

Werner's unseen work for Spurs

After a difficult start to the season, featuring a string of high-profile misses, Timo Werner finally opened his account for the campaign with an emphatic opener in Tottenham's 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night.

The goal was only his third in 26 appearances since his arrival from RB Leipzig in January. His numbers were also modest during his spell at Chelsea, where he scored 23 times in 89 games. But Ange Postecoglou perseveres with him and there are reasons behind it.

His erratic finishing is of course a source frustration to Spurs supporters, as it was to those of Chelsea, but even when he is not scoring, Werner contributes a lot. His defensive industry is an asset. His off-the-ball running in the final third is even more valuable.

Tracking data from Second Spectrum shows that only former Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino, a player famed for the quality of his movement, has averaged more off-the-ball runs per 90 minutes than Werner across the last five Premier League seasons.

As with Firmino, that volume highlights Werner's selflessness. He makes his runs not just to put himself in scoring positions but to stretch opposition defences and create space for others.

One such run led to a goal the last time Spurs faced Sunday's opponents Aston Villa in March. By driving towards the back post, Werner occupied Matty Cash, ensuring Heung-Min Son had room to dispatch Dejan Kulusevski's cut-back in the 4-0 win.

Werner's willingness to put in the hard yards for the team is not lost on Postecoglou. Judging by the way in which he was mobbed following his goal on Wednesday night at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, it is appreciated by his team-mates too. He will doubtless relish the opportunity to test Villa's high line on Sunday.

Man City's Walker reliance is an issue

Tottenham became the latest side to get in behind Manchester City's defence in their Carabao Cup win on Wednesday. The first example came with Werner's opener in the fifth minute. He should have had another when put through again in the second half.

The two chances had different outcomes but came in similar style, with Spurs able to cut through City by attacking directly, and at speed, as they did throughout. Although the loss was City's first of the campaign, this vulnerability from fast breaks has been a theme.

Amazingly, Pep Guardiola's side have allowed seven more shots from fast breaks than any other Premier League side in all competitions, with 24. They are fortunate only three of them have resulted in goals but that total is still the joint-highest among Premier League sides.

It is uncharacteristic. City are facing nearly three times as many shots from fast breaks as last season, their average up from 0.6 per game to 1.6 this term. So why is it happening?

The loss of Rodri from midfield is a factor but it is worth noting that, before his knee injury, he started one of the games in which the issue was most apparent, the goalless draw with Inter in September in which City gave up four shots from fast breaks.

Kyle Walker's absence is probably more pertinent. His recovery pace has become crucial in mopping up danger behind City's high defensive line. Due to injury, however, he has only started four games this season. And even he has been unable to solve the issue.

Consider the game against Fulham in October, one City were fortunate to win. Marco Silva's side caused huge problems from counters that day, with Walker easily outpaced by Adama Traore. He is not the first defender to suffer that fate, of course, but his struggles were a reminder of his advancing years.

At 34, and increasingly troubled by fitness issues, he is not solution he once was behind City's defensive line. On Saturday against Bournemouth, a side with more shots from fast breaks than any other since the start of last term, they risk further punishment.

Live Radar: What's on Sky this weekend?

Winless Wolves go up against Oliver Glasner's Crystal Palace on Saturday Night Football, with coverage starting at 5pm on Sky Sports Premier League ahead of the 5.30pm kick-off time.

The Super Sunday double-header begins with Tottenham's meeting with Aston Villa, live on Sky Sports Premier League from 1pm ahead of the 2pm kick-off time, then it's to Old Trafford as Manchester United face Chelsea under interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy, with kick-off at 4.30pm.

It's a west London derby on Monday Night Football as Fulham face Brentford. Coverage starts on Sky Sports Premier League at the earlier time of 6pm ahead of the 8pm kick-off

Read last week's Radar

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Premier League Predictions & best bets: Aston Villa to win at Tottenham

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After calling Bournemouth's win over Manchester City, our football betting expert Jones Knows takes aim at Super Sunday.

Get instant access to this weekend's live football on Sky with a NOW Day or Month membership

Mo Salah goal wins Swansea man £1m Super 6 jackpot!

Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Live Premier League table | Watch PL highlights for free

Download the Sky Sports App

I'm absolutely bouncing to be able to get 10/11 with Sky Bet on Aston Villa avoiding defeat.

This Tottenham team still are a great watch but not one to take seriously when it comes to challenging for top honours.

The opposite can be said of Aston Villa, who aren't overly flamboyant but boy are they efficient and posses a streetwise manager in Unai Emery. Tottenham have lost nine of their last 16 Premier League games - only Wolves (12) have lost more since mid-April and the injury to Micky van de Ven only weakens them further.

If you take Man City out of the equation and just include Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal, Emery has lost two of his last 12 away days against those teams and has beaten Spurs twice at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with Villa.

Emery can celebrate his 53rd birthday on Sunday with a victory that should mean he's in for a good evening.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Aston Villa double chance (10/11 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Cole Palmer has been getting some special treatment of late, in that teams have decided on a method to stop him. To kick him, basically.

It's merited too as he is the most dangerous man on planet Premier League, grabbing 45 goal involvements since the start of last season - no player has more. Nope, not even Erling Haaland.

Jackson outscoring Drogba, Werner's unseen work - The Radar

Palmer has been fouled 19 times in his last six starts, which is a huge spike on where those numbers were last season. His fouls won data has risen from 0.89 fouls won per 90 from last season to 2.44 fouls won per game this season. These are Palmer's fouls won numbers from his last six starts: 4-5-1-3-3-3.

Palmer is 13/8 with Sky Bet to be fouled three times.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Fulham vs Brentford, Monday 8pm live on Sky Sports

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I like Fulham at the prices here with Evens on offer from Sky Bet.

Marco Silva's side have surprised me in the way they've adapted without João Palhinha. They might even be a better team this season without him, although that's not shown in the actual points return of 12 from their nine games. However, when you dig a little deeper into the underlying numbers it paints a very shiny picture where Fulham should actually be third in the Premier League when it comes to Sky Sports' expected goals table of dominance.

And that is shown by the fact they've won the expected goals battle in their last 10 matches across all competitions, including in defeats at Manchester City and Aston Villa. All this evidence shows that Fulham are putting in consistent performance levels, are restricting teams with their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end.

Mbeumo's Brentford story: Dodging lightning to unearth the next gem

I've got them finishing the season much higher than Brentford, who are such poor travellers, losing 14 of their last 18 Premier League games on the road.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Fulham to beat Brentford (Evens with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows' best bets of the weekend...

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Premier League Predictions & best bets: Aston Villa to win at Tottenham

Submitted by daniel on
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After calling Bournemouth's win over Manchester City, our football betting expert Jones Knows takes aim at Super Sunday.

Get instant access to this weekend's live football on Sky with a NOW Day or Month membership

Mo Salah goal wins Swansea man £1m Super 6 jackpot!

Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Stream this game with NOW

Live Premier League table | Watch PL highlights for free

Download the Sky Sports App

I'm absolutely bouncing to be able to get 10/11 with Sky Bet on Aston Villa avoiding defeat.

This Tottenham team still are a great watch but not one to take seriously when it comes to challenging for top honours.

The opposite can be said of Aston Villa, who aren't overly flamboyant but boy are they efficient and posses a streetwise manager in Unai Emery. Tottenham have lost nine of their last 16 Premier League games - only Wolves (12) have lost more since mid-April and the injury to Micky van de Ven only weakens them further.

If you take Man City out of the equation and just include Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal, Emery has lost two of his last 12 away days against those teams and has beaten Spurs twice at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with Villa.

Emery can celebrate his 53rd birthday on Sunday with a victory that should mean he's in for a good evening.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Aston Villa double chance (10/11 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Stream this game with NOW

Live Premier League table | Watch PL highlights for free

Download the Sky Sports App

Cole Palmer has been getting some special treatment of late, in that teams have decided on a method to stop him. To kick him, basically.

It's merited too as he is the most dangerous man on planet Premier League, grabbing 45 goal involvements since the start of last season - no player has more. Nope, not even Erling Haaland.

Jackson outscoring Drogba, Werner's unseen work - The Radar

Palmer has been fouled 19 times in his last six starts, which is a huge spike on where those numbers were last season. His fouls won data has risen from 0.89 fouls won per 90 from last season to 2.44 fouls won per game this season. These are Palmer's fouls won numbers from his last six starts: 4-5-1-3-3-3.

Palmer is 13/8 with Sky Bet to be fouled three times.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Fulham vs Brentford, Monday 8pm live on Sky Sports

Stream this game with NOW

Live Premier League table | Watch PL highlights for free

Download the Sky Sports App

I like Fulham at the prices here with Evens on offer from Sky Bet.

Marco Silva's side have surprised me in the way they've adapted without João Palhinha. They might even be a better team this season without him, although that's not shown in the actual points return of 12 from their nine games. However, when you dig a little deeper into the underlying numbers it paints a very shiny picture where Fulham should actually be third in the Premier League when it comes to Sky Sports' expected goals table of dominance.

And that is shown by the fact they've won the expected goals battle in their last 10 matches across all competitions, including in defeats at Manchester City and Aston Villa. All this evidence shows that Fulham are putting in consistent performance levels, are restricting teams with their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end.

Mbeumo's Brentford story: Dodging lightning to unearth the next gem

I've got them finishing the season much higher than Brentford, who are such poor travellers, losing 14 of their last 18 Premier League games on the road.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Fulham to beat Brentford (Evens with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows' best bets of the weekend...

Source

Nicolas Jackson outscoring Didier Drogba at Chelsea, Timo Werner's Roberto Firmino-esque running - The Radar

Submitted by daniel on
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Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:

🔵 Jackson showing his value and potential

💨 Werner's off-the-ball running analysed

🔍 Man City's vulnerability from fast breaks

Jackson outscoring Drogba for Chelsea

Nicolas Jackson goes into Chelsea's clash with Manchester United on Super Sunday having reached 20 Premier League goals against Newcastle. Only five players have hit the milestone in fewer than his 44 appearances for the club. Didier Drogba is not one of them.

Get instant access to this weekend's live Premier League football on Sky with a NOW Day or Month membership

Drogba needed 50 games to reach the 20-goal mark and while Jackson has much to do to even come close to matching his achievements in a Chelsea shirt, his superior scoring rate, at only 23, underlines his value and potential. At the same age, Drogba was still playing for Le Mans in France's second tier.

Jackson's youthfulness leaves room for improvement but he has come a long way already. He arrived from Villarreal last year with only 16 top-flight starts behind him. For much of last season, he had to manage the pressure of being Chelsea's only available striker.

The circumstances were challenging but he produced an encouraging debut campaign, after overcoming a difficult start, and his progress has accelerated in the new one. Only Cole Palmer, Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland and Bukayo Saka have registered more goal involvements this term.

His rate of productivity has nearly doubled. Last season, he averaged a goal or assist every 148 minutes in the Premier League, with 14 and five respectively. This term, that figure stands at just 77, his six goals and three assists coming from only 695 minutes played.

It is little wonder that, despite being three years Jackson's senior at 26, Christopher Nkunku is finding it so difficult to unseat him. The France international has only started one Premier League game this season. Jackson's continued improvement means his wait for more playing time is likely to go on for longer.

Werner's unseen work for Spurs

After a difficult start to the season, featuring a string of high-profile misses, Timo Werner finally opened his account for the campaign with an emphatic opener in Tottenham's 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night.

The goal was only his third in 26 appearances since his arrival from RB Leipzig in January. His numbers were also modest during his spell at Chelsea, where he scored 23 times in 89 games. But Ange Postecoglou perseveres with him and there are reasons behind it.

His erratic finishing is of course a source frustration to Spurs supporters, as it was to those of Chelsea, but even when he is not scoring, Werner contributes a lot. His defensive industry is an asset. His off-the-ball running in the final third is even more valuable.

Tracking data from Second Spectrum shows that only former Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino, a player famed for the quality of his movement, has averaged more off-the-ball runs per 90 minutes than Werner across the last five Premier League seasons.

As with Firmino, that volume highlights Werner's selflessness. He makes his runs not just to put himself in scoring positions but to stretch opposition defences and create space for others.

One such run led to a goal the last time Spurs faced Sunday's opponents Aston Villa in March. By driving towards the back post, Werner occupied Matty Cash, ensuring Heung-Min Son had room to dispatch Dejan Kulusevski's cut-back in the 4-0 win.

Werner's willingness to put in the hard yards for the team is not lost on Postecoglou. Judging by the way in which he was mobbed following his goal on Wednesday night at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, it is appreciated by his team-mates too. He will doubtless relish the opportunity to test Villa's high line on Sunday.

Man City's Walker reliance is an issue

Tottenham became the latest side to get in behind Manchester City's defence in their Carabao Cup win on Wednesday. The first example came with Werner's opener in the fifth minute. He should have had another when put through again in the second half.

The two chances had different outcomes but came in similar style, with Spurs able to cut through City by attacking directly, and at speed, as they did throughout. Although the loss was City's first of the campaign, this vulnerability from fast breaks has been a theme.

Amazingly, Pep Guardiola's side have allowed seven more shots from fast breaks than any other Premier League side in all competitions, with 24. They are fortunate only three of them have resulted in goals but that total is still the joint-highest among Premier League sides.

It is uncharacteristic. City are facing nearly three times as many shots from fast breaks as last season, their average up from 0.6 per game to 1.6 this term. So why is it happening?

The loss of Rodri from midfield is a factor but it is worth noting that, before his knee injury, he started one of the games in which the issue was most apparent, the goalless draw with Inter in September in which City gave up four shots from fast breaks.

Kyle Walker's absence is probably more pertinent. His recovery pace has become crucial in mopping up danger behind City's high defensive line. Due to injury, however, he has only started four games this season. And even he has been unable to solve the issue.

Consider the game against Fulham in October, one City were fortunate to win. Marco Silva's side caused huge problems from counters that day, with Walker easily outpaced by Adama Traore. He is not the first defender to suffer that fate, of course, but his struggles were a reminder of his advancing years.

At 34, and increasingly troubled by fitness issues, he is not solution he once was behind City's defensive line. On Saturday against Bournemouth, a side with more shots from fast breaks than any other since the start of last term, they risk further punishment.

Live Radar: What's on Sky this weekend?

Winless Wolves go up against Oliver Glasner's Crystal Palace on Saturday Night Football, with coverage starting at 5pm on Sky Sports Premier League ahead of the 5.30pm kick-off time.

The Super Sunday double-header begins with Tottenham's meeting with Aston Villa, live on Sky Sports Premier League from 1pm ahead of the 2pm kick-off time, then it's to Old Trafford as Manchester United face Chelsea under interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy, with kick-off at 4.30pm.

It's a west London derby on Monday Night Football as Fulham face Brentford. Coverage starts on Sky Sports Premier League at the earlier time of 6pm ahead of the 8pm kick-off

Read last week's Radar

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Live Commentary - Tottenham vs Aston Villa

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Premier League: Tottenham vs Aston Villa, relegation six-pointers and injury-hit Man City in focus

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It has been a big week for Manchester United and there will be plenty of discussion to come ahead of their Super Sunday clash with Chelsea. But there are intriguing stories right across the Premier League fixture list this weekend.

Here, we delve into some of the standout talking points - and remember, as well as tuning into the games live on Sky Sports, you can follow all of these matches with our live blogs.

Find them on the Sky Sports website and app, where you can also watch FREE match highlights of every Premier League game.

Tottenham renew top-four battle with Aston Villa

Tottenham thought they had landed the big blow in last season's race for the top four when they thrashed 10-player Aston Villa 4-0 in March.

That win at Villa Park moved Spurs two points off Unai Emery's side with a game in hand - but it was Villa who ultimately prevailed in the fight for the Champions League qualifying spots last season, with Spurs slipping away badly at the end, winning just four of their final 11 league games.

Live Premier League table | Watch PL highlights for free

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Ange Postecoglou's players have ground to make up again, sitting five points off fourth-placed Villa going into this weekend's match-up at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

They go into the contest with a spring in their step after the midweek Carabao Cup win over Man City, though, and have mostly delivered at home this season, winning six of their seven fixtures there across all competitions (just don't mention the north London derby).

Their fans may also be buoyed by slight slip-ups from Villa over the past week, with a Carabao Cup exit to Crystal Palace following last weekend's draw with Wolves, when Villa blew a two-goal lead.

But Villa - winners in north London 12 months ago and so far revelling in their return to Europe's top table - have a formidable away record, threat off the bench and will be highly charged for what has become an intriguing Premier League rivalry.

A decisive weekend in the relegation battle as bottom six face off

It has been hard work for the bottom six so far this season but they have the opportunity to pick up vital points this weekend when they face one another. Of course, there is also the prospect of slipping behind relegation-battle rivals. A few days on from Halloween, it is a terrifying prospect for the more pessimistic fans at those clubs.

Ipswich, Southampton and Wolves are the only sides without a win this season and will be aiming to end that wait when they play host to Leicester, Everton and Crystal Palace, respectively. But these three contests are surely too tight to call.

Everton and Palace can point to recent upticks in results but Southampton and Wolves will feel they have deserved more from their opening nine games. Ipswich will hope their goalscoring sharpness from the painful last-gasp defeat to Brentford a week ago can do the damage against a Leicester side that shipped five at Old Trafford on Wednesday.

Whatever angle you take in the build-up, the final results come Saturday evening could have a big bearing on who goes down and who stays up come May.

Man City threadbare ahead of tricky trip to Bournemouth

Ruben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Ake and Josko Gvardiol at the back. Mateo Kovacic, Ilkay Gundogan, Rico Lewis and Bernardo Silva in midfield. Phil Foden and Erling Haaland in attack.

Pep Guardiola might not get much sympathy from anyone with a Bournemouth allegiance when he talks about Manchester City being in "trouble" with their injury crisis, given the quality of players he could still field at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

But the strain on the defending champions is real, with Manuel Akanji and Savinho added to their lengthy injury list on Wednesday night. Dias was also said to be "struggling" after going off at half-time against Spurs in the Carabao Cup loss. Guardiola says he has not experienced anything like it during his nine years at City.

The international break cannot come soon enough for them but first three tricky away days await, with Bournemouth being followed by Sporting in the Champions League and Brighton at the Amex. Whether their rivals buy their excuses or not, City know there is little room for slip-ups in the Premier League title race. They must dig deep into their reserves against a Bournemouth side who have beaten Arsenal and drawn with Aston Villa in their past two outings.

Arsenal's most important week of the season?

Newcastle away, Inter Milan away, Chelsea away. Arsenal know this could be a week that defines their season.

The depleted Gunners were much-improved in their valiant 2-2 draw with Liverpool last weekend but the harsh reality is Mikel Arteta's side have not picked up a win in their last two Premier League games. With the margins so fine, slip-ups are costly and winless runs are unacceptable.

The two tricky trips to Newcastle and Chelsea are games Arsenal dropped points in last season. It barely gets any easier after the break with Nottingham Forest, a frustrating opponent for many - including Liverpool, next on the list.

This is a time where Arsenal, who have added Ben White to their defensive injury list this week, need to stand up and show their credentials.

Fulham need to start turning dominance into points

Winless in three games and set to face their 'bogey rivals' in Brentford, Marco Silva's Fulham arguably face a crossroads in their season on Monday night.

The Cottagers looked well-built at the start of this season and their five-match unbeaten run, before this current slump, had many of their fans dreaming of a return to Europe again.

But recent poor finishing has let them down. In their defeat at Man City, Adama Traore should have scored a hat-trick but was wasteful at the Etihad Stadium. Andreas Pereira's missed penalty against Aston Villa was the crucial moment in a topsy-turvy game, while missed chances away at Everton last time out came back to bite them with Beto's late equaliser.

In fact, Fulham would sit third in the Premier League table if games were decided by Expected Goals (xG). Only Liverpool and Man City have a better record of dominance this term.

There is a lot to like about Silva's team this season. Emile Smith Rowe's arrival has breathed fresh life into an attack which has seen resurgences from Alex Iwobi, Raul Jimenez and Traore, while Sander Berge's discipline allows attacking full-backs Antonee Robinson and Kenny Tete to add to that frontline.

But another slip-up to Brentford, who they have only beaten once since the Bees' promotion to the top flight, would see them slide further away from their continental dreams.

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