Thomas Frank thinks his first north London derby is likely to be akin to a trip to the ‘madhouse’. As manager of Tottenham for the last three months, he must know how that feels by now.
After all, trying to make sense of Spurs is a path which only leads to insanity.
The Dane has Tottenham four points off third-placed Manchester City with a game in hand and yet the Frank era is yet to ignite or inspire and the new man went into the international break with the sound of Spurs fans booing his substitutions ringing in his ears.
Now, he travels to his club’s fiercest rivals, the league leaders Arsenal, and to a stadium in which his side have won just once in the league in their history and not in 15 years.
It’s a good job, perhaps, that the current mystery surrounding Spurs is why they are so devasting on their travels yet when playing in front of their own fans, leave them either bored, booing or both.
The difference is staggering. Spurs sit top of the 'away table' with four wins and 13 points from their five games on the road. By contrast, they lie second from bottom on the 'home table' with just a single win and five points from six matches. Only winless Wolves have a worse home record thus far.
Your browser does not support iframes.
The first thing to point out, of course, is that this isn’t just a Frank problem. It was an Ange Postecoglou problem too in the end. Spurs have won at home just three times since November last year but Frank is yet to find a way to fix it.
‘I know at home you may play in a specific way, and other teams are playing in a specific way against you, compared to when you go away,’ said Frank last month.
‘And then the team opens up a little bit more, so you can hit them a little bit more on the counter, so you don’t have to create everything from scratch and (face) 11 players behind the ball.’
It’s that creating from scratch that continues to hold Frank’s Spurs back. Without the injured James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski in the heart of midfield, and Xavi Simons struggling to adapt to the rough and tumble of the Premier League, Spurs lack a player through the middle that can collect the ball, turn and pick gaps in deep-lying defences.
The meat-and-potatoes pairing of Joao Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur provide decent strength and stability but struggle to break down defences when Spurs have more of the ball and need to start picking locks instead of pockets.
Take the home defeat by Aston Villa. Unai Emery's side were happy to sit in their mid-block and let Spurs try to play through them. That is when you need your midfielders to work their magic. This, however, is the pass map of Palhinha (6) and Bentancur (30). Side to side and down the sides but rarely, if ever, through the heart of Villa’s defence.
Take the same pass map from the home defeat by Bournemouth, where Spurs had 61 per cent possession, and you would be forgiven for thinking the hosts were attacking from right to left.
They weren’t. They just happened to play more passes into their own area than the Cherries’.
This game was only the second time since 2003 that Tottenham failed to have a shot in the first half of a home Premier League game.
Across the entirety of the season both home and away, Tottenham have played just four defence-splitting through balls - that’s the fewest in the division and at least half as many as any other side. Arsenal, by contrast, have played 40. Declan Rice has played four on his own.
Tottenham average more possession, more passes, and more passes in the final third at home than they do away but have fewer touches in the box and attempt fewer shots.
Spurs fans have grown tired and frustrated at seeing their side pass continually in that horseshoe shape around the penalty area without playing an incisive ball into the box. Only Burnley have attempted fewer shots in home games this season. Spurs have fired 54 shots on goal, Manchester City and Chelsea are both in the nineties.
In their dismal home loss to Chelsea, Spurs racked up an expected goals tally of just 0.05, their lowest in a league game on record.
You can get away with playing that way at home to Chelsea when you’re in charge of Brentford. You can’t when you’re Tottenham manager. You can’t when fans hold up pieces of card to spell in gigantic letters ‘To dare is to do’.
While Frank proved at Brentford to be a practical, flexible manager able to switch between different styles, so much of their success came through his side’s ability to get the ball forward quickly to speedy wide players like Bryan Mbeumo and Kevin Schade.
That’s where he’s had the most joy for Tottenham, too. His Spurs side are better when they play a bit more like Brentford. Before this weekend's action, only his old club, Wolves, Manchester United and Bournemouth had attempted more long balls this term than Spurs.
That suits them better on the road where teams, in general, allow them more space. They’ve won all three of the games in which they have had the least possession.
Away from home so far, Spurs have won the ball far less high up the pitch, allowed their opponents more passes before trying to win back possession, but are enjoying double the number of counter attacks.
They are at their most dangerous when they are able to cut out the midfield entirely. For their opening goal against Manchester City, it’s a long ball from deep that’s flicked on by Pape Sarr into Richarlison’s path before crossing for Brennan Johnson to score.
You can see from the images below that Spurs’ midfield is nowhere to be seen.
It’s the same for this great chance for Mohammed Kudus against Leeds. Spurs prefer to play it down the channels and miss out the midfield entirely. Not that there is one there to play to in any case.
When there’s space to run into, it works. Despite their excellent away start, however, whether it’s sustainable is also a question. Spurs have still conceded a greater xG than they have created on the road, too. They still face more shots than they take.
It is a good job their 22 per cent shot conversion rate on the road is better than any other team's in the division. The 5 per cent conversion rate of their opponents is also the lowest.
It’s an approach, too, that has also got Spurs in trouble on multiple occasions – and could again against Arsenal. Without a midfield that can play through a press, Frank’s side only have one way to go: wide and long.
In this example against Chelsea, Sarr comes short to receive a pass. There is no one ahead of him so he cannot turn and play forward into midfield. He knocks it out wide to Pedro Porro, whose only option is to knock it down the line, only Alejandro Garnacho cuts it out and Chelsea miss a great chance.
Spurs frequently gave the ball away inside their own defensive third in the build-up to Joao Pedro’s opener too.
This lack of a midfield able to progress the ball upfield continues to catch them out. They were pressed to death against Bournemouth too. Only one side in the division has lost possession in their own third more this season than Spurs. They have made the most errors leading to the opposition having a shot.
None of this bodes well for the north London derby, does it?
Well, maybe. If there is one slight dint in Arsenal’s titanium hull it is where Spurs most like to attack.
Clean sheet machines Arsenal have faced, unsurprisingly, the fewest shots in the division, at least 20 fewer than anyone else. And yet they have conceded the second most shots in the league from fast breaks. If you can get at them, get them on the counter.
Manchester City got at them that way for Erling Haaland’s early goal. Manchester United exploited that space in behind the left full back frequently, too.
With Gabriel ruled out injured and full back Riccardo Calafiori a doubt for the game, Arsenal will have an unsettled duo down that side that Kudus could be able to exploit.
No player has attempted to dribble past his opponent more often this term than £55m summer signing Kudus.
Spurs just need to be able to find him. You can’t just hit and hope against Arsenal, you have to attack with purpose.
While their central midfielders will struggle to do so, Frank does possess one player with the range of passing to pick him out: Pedro Porro.
The full back has played the most progressive passes of any Spurs player this term. He’s played more than double the passes into the final third of any of his team-mates.
Frank needs to find a way to get him on the ball, even in central areas, and find Kudus – just as he did for a great chance in the defeat by Villa.
If Spurs are going to stand the best chance of their second win at the Emirates, this is the blueprint.
That is, of course, if Rice hasn’t overrun Frank’s midfield first.
