Ange Postecoglou’s second seasons – what history and the data say Spurs can expect

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Ange Postecoglou’s first 12 months in charge of Tottenham Hotspur felt like the club hitting the reset button.

If their style of play towards the end of predecessor Antonio Conte’s divisive reign was uninspiring, Postecoglou quickly made them fun to watch again.

Expectations were low this time last year after Spurs sold Harry Kane to Bayern Munich, but their new head coach won eight of his opening 10 league games. They went on to finish fifth, missing out on the Premier League’s final Champions League spot by two points, but the overwhelming sense was still that it had been a positive season and a step in the right direction.

During his second year in charge of the Australia men’s national team, Postecoglou lifted the Asian Cup — the regional equivalent of the Euros, Copa America or Africa Cup of Nations. And in his previous three jobs in club management (not counting Melbourne Victory, where he only stayed for a year before becoming Australia manager), he has won the league title in year two.

The 58-year-old has a clear track record of improving teams, but Tottenham finished 25 points behind champions Manchester City last season. How will they try to close the gap over the next nine months? The Athletic has looked to the past for clues.

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Peter Cklamovski started working with Postecoglou 20 years ago in Australia’s youth system. He then served as his assistant at Greek side Panachaiki, Brisbane Roar, Yokohama F Marinos in Japan and with Australia’s senior side before forging his own career as a head coach. Ckalmovski describes Postecoglou’s style of play as a “holistic approach”.

“The essence of it is to be as aggressive as you can be off the ball and as entertaining as you can be with it,” Ckalmovski tells The Athletic. “To play as fast as possible from the first second until the final whistle.”

Postecoglou tried to implement this when he took over Brisbane early in the 2009-10 season, but they finished second-bottom — fortunately, there is no relegation from the A-League, the top-flight of club football in Australia and New Zealand.

He revamped the squad for year two, recruiting Thomas Broich, Michael Theo, Erik Paartalu, Shane Stefanutto and Matt Smith. Brisbane topped the 2010-11 regular-season table on 65 points, eight points clear of the runners-up, then went on to win the Grand Final. The following year, they finished second after the 27 regular games but were victorious in the title play-offs again, becoming the first club to win back-to-back championships since the A-League began (albeit that was only seven years earlier).

Following his success with Brisbane, Postecoglou briefly stopped off at hometown club Melbourne Victory (they finished third in 2012-13, then lost in the play-off semi-finals) before he was appointed Australia head coach in October that year.

Australia had already qualified for the World Cup in Brazil nine months away, but he was already looking ahead to the Asian Cup at the beginning of 2015, which Australia were hosting. He made it clear that senior players Lucas Neil and Luke Wilkshire were not part of his plans, while former Middlesbrough, Chelsea and Fulham goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer announced his international retirement a couple of weeks after he was appointed.

Drawn in Group B with defending champions Spain, a Chile side who would win Copa America a year later, and the Netherlands, who would finish third, Australia lost all three games, but there were signs of progress.

“Everything he does is strategic and planned out,” Ante Milicic, another of Postecoglou’s assistants with Australia, tells The Athletic. “He brought in a youthful squad and said, ‘I’m going to give these younger players experience of international football and working with me and my staff for seven months to prepare for the Asian Cup’. Other people might have said, ‘These senior players got us to the World Cup and we should move them on afterwards’.”

Despite the short turnaround between the two tournaments, seven of the 23 players who went to Brazil were not included in the Asian Cup squad six months later and Mile Jedinak was the only carry-over from the final Australia team before Postecoglou took charge.

It was a dramatic overhaul of a squad, which he has repeated in north London.

Long-serving senior players Kane, Hugo Lloris and Eric Dier have left. More fringe members of the squad including Emerson Royal, Ryan Sessegnon, Bryan Gil and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg are gone, too, either permanently or on loan. Richarlison scored 11 goals in 28 league appearances last season but has just been pushed down the pecking order by the arrival of new club-record signing Dominic Solanke.

Postecoglou has shown his faith in an exciting crop of young talents who are more malleable to his demands, including Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie, Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall. Academy prospects Mikey Moore, Will Lankshear and Jamie Donley were given lots of opportunities during pre-season.

“It’s never personal,” says Milicic, now head coach of the Chinese women’s national team. “He doesn’t do that to show a message. That’s what he feels is best for the squad. To execute his way of playing, you’ve got to have total buy-in. It’s easy for coaches to say something, but he demands it and believes in it.

“He always used to say that ‘you’ve got to give your tracksuit back at the end of camp’. In international football, you have the power (as manager) because if someone doesn’t deliver, they don’t get called back. That’s a strong message to send to everyone.”

Postecoglou’s bold selection calls paid off.

Australia scored eight goals in their three Group A games at the 2015 Asian Cup but finished as runners-up following a 1-0 defeat to South Korea in the third and final match. They then beat China and the United Arab Emirates in the knockout stages before getting revenge on South Korea in the final, beating them 2-1 after extra time to secure the first (and so far only) major trophy Australia’s men’s team have ever won.

“He is always challenging you,” Milicic says. “You never get comfortable or stand still. You’re always looking at ways to improve. You never waste a session or a drill. A lot of work goes into designing and evaluating the sessions. It was intense working with the national team, and for Ange, but to win on home soil was something special.”

Postecoglou resigned in November 2017 after Australia had qualified for the next year’s World Cup in Russia and explained that managing his country had “taken a toll on me professionally and personally”. A month later, he was confirmed as the new head coach of Yokohama F Marinos in the Japanese top flight.

As with Brisbane Roar, he endured a difficult debut season in the 2018 J-League — Yokohama finished 12th out of the 18 teams and only avoided the relegation play-off on goal difference (although they did score just one fewer than champions Kawasaki Frontale over the 34 games and got to the League Cup final).

“We were like aliens that came in and had a playing style (nobody was used to),” says then assistant Cklamovski, now a head coach in the J-League with FC Tokyo. “The results were like a rollercoaster. You have players asking, ‘You want us to press all the time? You want us that high (up the pitch?). You want the goalkeeper where?’. There are all sorts of challenges which are new to them and make them feel uncomfortable.

“Some players loved that and others were fearful. That is normal. That’s part of developing a brand of football. We had to break down barriers, give them confidence and coach them in ways that gave them solutions and helped them to improve. The tough moments are the most important because you grow.

“Every day, you’re trying to get progress physically, tactically, technically, individually and as a team. The balance of training is important — when to push and when to rest. But with the right programme, which Ange always sets up, every player improves no matter how old they are.”

Midway through Postecoglou’s second season, in July 2019, Yokohama played Manchester City, who are also owned by the City Football Group, in what was a pre-season tour game for the Premier League club. City won 3-1, but they were only a goal up going to second-half stoppage time and afterwards, manager Pep Guardiola described Yokohama as an “incredible test” and their England forward Raheem Sterling said “they are probably one of the best teams I’ve seen play out from the back”.

Yokohama then won 10 of their final 11 games that season to finish top with 70 points, six points clear. It was the first time they had won a trophy in 15 years.

That dramatic improvement from 12th to first in Postecoglou’s second season is reflected in the numbers. Yokohama scored more goals, conceded fewer, and notably played in a manner that was more in-keeping with their manager’s identity. Not only did their possession share increase, but their 19.2 sequences of 10-plus passes per 90 minutes in that 2019 season far outweighed 2018’s average of 13.9.

Spurs will be hoping for a similar improvement as they embark on their second year under Postecoglou.

In June 2021, Postecoglou moved on, succeeding Brendan Rodgers as manager of leading Scottish club Celtic, who had finished the previous season 25 points behind Glasgow rivals Rangers when trying to win a 10th straight title. There was an exodus of the club’s best talent that first summer, including Odsonne Edouard, Kristoffer Ajer, Ryan Christie, Oliver Ntcham and the captain, Scott Brown.

Celtic signed 15 new players during Postecoglou’s first year, including Kyogo Furuhashi and Reo Hatate, who he knew from the J-League, Filipe Jota and Josip Juranovic. It was a period of huge change, which started with three defeats in his first six league games.

“The way he plays is non-stop,” Anton McElhone, who was Celtic’s head of sports science under Postecoglou and had previously worked at Spurs when Mauricio Pochettino was the manager, told The Athletic in June. “To play that style, you need to have no body fat and there is so much work to support that.

“It was a high-pressure job, week in, week out, and in the first few months, we had a horrendous injury list because we might not have been able to train the way we wanted to. He was understanding, as he said that every club he goes to, in the first six months he has injuries, as they’re not used to training at that level. You had all these new players who hadn’t played anywhere near 60 games (in a season) before, so you need to get them close to that.

“We had to make sure the data was right and they were training hard enough. In two years, we changed the GPS company and did things to match the standards Ange wanted. Group pre-training was individualised based on previous injuries, starters and non-starters. It was all bespoke, but we would give the top players some autonomy. We brought in a new nutritionist in the (spoiler alert!) treble season and we brought in a rehab coach to really push. Ange backed everything if it was objective, measured and going to make the team better.”

In May this year, The Athletic researched injuries in the top flight last season and discovered Tottenham’s injured players were absent for 1,331 days. When you adjust it to the injury burden per 1,000 minutes, they were the fourth most impacted team (nine injuries per 1,000 minutes) behind Chelsea (9.4), Crystal Palace (10.0) and Manchester United (10.3).

“We didn’t have a squad that was equipped to handle the rigours of a Premier League campaign, particularly when you’re trying to challenge and sustain some sort of level of intensity and competitiveness in the toughest league in the world,” Postecoglou told The Athletic earlier this month. “It wasn’t surprising. Some of that is just because it was my first year and we had a lot of injuries, which I think was just the remnants of us training the way we train and the way we do things. You’d like to think this year we are a lot better equipped to handle that side of it.”

Tottenham’s fanbase should take comfort from the fact Celtic’s squad adapted pretty quickly.

They did not lose a single game in the league after September 19 during that first season, beating arch-rivals Rangers to the title by four points and also winning the Scottish League Cup final.

Celtic then retained their championship the following year, improving their points tally from 93 in 2021-22 to 99 as they won 32 of 38 league games while scoring 114 goals (up from 92). Success in both domestic cup competitions sealed the treble.

The second-season improvement in Glasgow was a little more subtle than during Postecoglou’s time in Yokohama. Their goalscoring and dominance in possession improved, but Celtic did concede goals at a slightly higher rate than his debut year.

One notable improvement was their out-of-possession return. Lower passes per defensive action (PPDA) numbers indicate higher pressing intensity while more high turnovers (open-play possessions that begin 40 metres or less from the opponent’s goal) pointed to a greater sharpness defensively as Postecoglou’s side hunted in packs to retrieve the ball.

Tottenham suffered a dip in form towards the end of last season but still made significant progress under Postecoglou.

Spurs’ style can be neatly summarised in The Athletic’s playstyle wheel, which outlines how a team look to play compared with sides across Europe’s top seven domestic leagues. Notably, their tendency to build out from the back (Deep build-up rating, 98 out of 99) and carefully work the ball through the thirds (Circulate, 81 out of 99) are reflective of a team led in Postecoglou’s image, arriving into shooting areas with crafted attacking sequences as opposed to their previous counter-attacking style under other managers (Patient attack, 97 out of 99).

Room for improvement can be found in how effectively they work the ball out of their defensive third (Press resistance, 60 out of 99).

Using data from Footovision, no club had more build-ups that led to an opposition transition last season than Spurs’ 14.9 per 90. Postecoglou’s side gave up seven goals after losing the ball in their own defensive third — only five teams had more than that and four of those finished in the bottom half of the Premier League.

Giving up cheap opportunities was a theme that became more prominent as the season went on (Chance prevention, 18 out of 99) and has undoubtedly been a key area for Postecoglou to address during pre-season.

Postecoglou will be pleased with the foundation his side now have out of possession. Defensively, Tottenham were one of the most intense pressers in Europe during his first season (Intensity, 99 out of 99) as they squeezed the pitch to shut down spaces in advanced areas (High line, 98 out of 99).

Their 8.8 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) was the lowest in the Premier League and it is worth highlighting how Postecoglou has transformed the club’s approach since Conte and his Spurs predecessor, Jose Mourinho. Across a 10-game rolling average, Tottenham’s PPDA has seen a notable upward trajectory that you would expect to stabilise further in the next 12 months under the Australian.

One area which needs to be addressed is defensive set pieces.

Spurs conceded 16 times from them last season, which put them level with relegated Burnley. Only the other two relegated sides Luton Town and Sheffield United (both 19) and fourth-bottom Nottingham Forest (23) conceded more. Bayern Munich exposed this weakness twice in last weekend’s friendly.

Teething problems were to be expected. According to figures from respected data site FBref, Tottenham’s average squad age of 25.2 was the fourth youngest (weighted by minutes played) in the division last season. Destiny Udogie describes it as the “hardest” system he has ever played in. Midfielder James Maddison says it’s “not too similar to anything I have played with other managers”. This is a long-term project and patience is required.

“It’s brilliant,” Maddison said of the style on this summer’s tour in Japan and South Korea. “It’s very attacking and front-footed. You have to work extremely hard in every session and game, but I believe (in) this way of playing and if we follow it how we should, it can bring success to the club. We are only a year in and we’re still learning and adapting to his style. The messages are very clear and we debrief a lot on what we should be doing and how we want to play.”

There have been changes to the coaching staff, too. Chris Davies left in June to become League One club Birmingham City’s new head coach, so Matt Wells has been promoted to senior assistant. Nick Montgomery and Sergio Raimundo are new additions. Postecoglou values “fresh voices” because “if you’re going to improve, you can’t just recap and dish out what we dished out last year”.

Pre-season performances have been encouraging, even without first-choice defenders Udogie, Van de Ven and Cristian Romero for the bulk of the programme due to either injury or international commitments. Solanke is a better fit stylistically for this brand of football than Richarlison up front. Dejan Kulusevski has impressed and Djed Spence has shown flashes of his potential.

How much Tottenham have evolved this summer will be put to the test on Monday when they start the new season for real away against promoted Leicester City.

“The way we play is very demanding and you’re kind of looking for how much you really have to push them — and the less you feel you need to push them, the more you know they’re actually buying into it,” Postecoglou said. “Some of it is just the way they talk and their behaviour around the place.

“So it’s about, are they doing it because I’m telling them, or are they doing it because they really believe and understand what we’re doing? You can see that growth; I’ve been doing it for a long time, so I really feel last year we laid some really strong foundations in terms of some underlying core values that I saw from the first day we got back into pre-season, and now it’s about building on that.”

(Top photo: Vince Mignott/MB Media/Getty Images)