Savio’s £85m Spurs move and what constitutes value in a modern Premier League transfer
Talented young Brazilian wingers rarely come cheap, but the £85million ($116m) package Tottenham Hotspur agreed with Manchester City to sign Savio (formerly known as Savinho) feels overinflated.
The 22-year-old dazzled in his first few appearances after joining City from French side Troyes in 2024 (having impressed on loan at Girona in 2023-24), but then faded fast, recording just two goals across 53 league appearances for the club.
It was obvious to anyone watching Spurs’ 3-0 opening-day demolition away to Brentford that they were in dire need of attacking reinforcements, but given Savio’s meagre output, has that desperation allowed the market to take advantage?
Even as recently as yesterday evening, eyebrows were raised when Nottingham Forest agreed a club-record transfer to bring Liam Delap (Premier League goals last season: one) from Stamford Bridge to Chelsea.
Whether Spurs have overpaid for Savio is a tricky question to answer, given there is no clear consensus on exactly how footballers should be valued. It is an intractable equation combining factors such as a player’s age, current contract length, past performance, potential (which Spurs are clearly placing greater weight on) and marketability.
Not that the complexity has put people off trying to solve the unsolvable. German website Transfermarkt is the best-known resource for wide-scale estimates of players’ “market values”. Using these estimates, The Athletic compared the market value of every Premier League transfer since 2012 with the fee paid to get a broad-brush sense of which deals represented the biggest overpayments.
Note that, for scalability, we used the fees listed by Transfermarkt rather than those reported by The Athletic. Transfermarkt lists Savio’s purchase price as £75.4million, similar to the initial £75million upfront fee reported by The Athletic, but short of the potential overall £85million package.
On that basis, Savio’s fee represents a £45.3million premium on his estimated market value of £30.1million, the fifth-largest amount above market value in the dataset. The table below lists the top 20, and like any transfer table, it is a mixed bag of successes and failures.
Enzo Fernandez sits top of the pile, with Transfermarkt estimating that Chelsea coughed up almost £60million more than he was worth when they signed him from Benfica in early 2023. In hindsight, Chelsea appear to have valued the Argentine correctly and would expect to recoup their investment if he leaves before the window shuts, with Manchester City strongly linked with a move.
The two names below Fernandez, though, Kepa Arrizabalaga and Antony, are perhaps the biggest examples of Premier League transfer extravagance. Both flopped — at Chelsea and Manchester United — with their fees widely viewed as excessive even at the time.
Savio is joined on the list by two other deals from this summer’s window: new team-mate Mateus Fernandes, signed from West Ham for £85.1million, and Morgan Rogers, who Chelsea bought from Aston Villa for £118.7million. Chelsea and Tottenham top the overall Premier League spending this summer, at £342million and £305million respectively, although Transfermarkt believes Spurs have registered the bigger overspend at £135million compared with Chelsea’s £85million.
In defence of Spurs’ apparent overspending, Transfermarkt’s market values rely on crowdsourced guesstimates rather than any sophisticated modelling.
That said, transfer economics, with its spiralling inflation and state-owned clubs, defies rational logic anyway, and Transfermarkt’s back-of-the-envelope approach is surprisingly accurate. Its estimates tend to err on the side of caution: roughly two-thirds of the transfer fees examined were completed above the recorded market value, but the histogram below shows that the estimates generally sit fairly close to these fees.
Another point of mitigation for Spurs is that a deal that looks like good value when it’s completed is no guarantee of success. Below is the flip side of our earlier chart: the top 20 transfers based on how much the fee fell below market value. Erling Haaland leads the way, but the Norwegian is something of an exception: the forward had a release clause at Borussia Dortmund that sat far below what everyone knew the fearsome striker was worth, allowing City to prise away a player valued at £129million for considerably less.
Outside of Haaland, the list contains few unqualified successes, despite the deep discounts they appeared to represent at the point of purchase. Savio is the only player to appear on both lists, embodying the unreliable nature of transfer valuations. He had been considered a steal when City signed him from Troyes for £21.5million, now his move to Spurs ranks among the most exorbitant.
Ultimately, the value of a transfer is in the eye of the beholder. To a neutral onlooker, Savio’s fee, when weighed against his limited impact in the Premier League, is among the more puzzling in recent memory.
But scouts, coaches and executives perform deep due diligence before sanctioning such outlays, and there will be harder-to-measure factors at play here: whether that is his natural fit for De Zerbi’s style or underlying data that suggests there is a far more devastating player waiting to be unleashed.