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Premier League relegation fight number-crunching: Tottenham favourites to fill final drop spot

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Welcome back to The Athletic’s relegation battle tracker, where our data and tactics writers examine the key trends behind the fight for Premier League survival.

It was all change in the bottom half last weekend as statement wins from West Ham United and Leeds United plunged others — including Tottenham Hotspur — deeper into trouble.

With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, allow our analysts to assess the latest twists and turns.

What has changed since the last gameweek?

There has been a reshuffle in the relegation zone.

West Ham put pressure on Spurs with a Friday night thumping of Wolverhampton Wanderers, lifting themselves into 17th place before Spurs’ trip to Sunderland on Sunday afternoon. Spurs failed to respond, tepidly losing 1-0 at the Stadium of Light and adding further misery to their season. They have registered the fewest Premier League points (five) in 2026, with no team scoring fewer (13 goals) or conceding more (28) since the turn of the year.

Nottingham Forest can be quietly pleased with their 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, extending their unbeaten run to four games. They rode their luck defensively against Unai Emery’s side, but Forest are starting to offer a consistent attacking threat, logging an expected goals (xG) of one or more in seven of their past eight league games.

Meanwhile, Leeds pulled further away from the drop after a deserved 2-1 victory over Manchester United. Their first win at Old Trafford since 1981 takes Daniel Farke’s side six points clear of the relegation zone with six games remaining, but the context of those remaining fixtures is revealing.

Leeds play each side in the bottom four, meaning they not only have an opportunity to pull themselves further from the drop, but they can also have a huge say in which teams might be relegated to the Championship next season.

Who is looking stronger?

With each passing week, West Ham more accurately resemble a classic Nuno Espirito Santo side — spirited in defence and incisive on the counter, while maximising set pieces and pace out wide to cause damage with their minimal ball possession.

Friday’s 4-0 win over Wolves saw them register five shots from fast breaks, the joint-most of any team in a single Premier League game this season. One counter-attack saw Jarrod Bowen drive inside and smash a shot against the far post, while their crucial second goal came from a clinical breakaway, as Crysencio Summerville snapped into a challenge and set bustling strikers Taty Castellanos and Pablo away.

In addition to those pitch-sweeping attacks, West Ham were dominant in the penalty area from corners and wide free kicks, as towering centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos helped himself to a double. Four of their last eight goals have come from set pieces, with the playstyle wheel below outlining the team’s steady transformation into an efficient attacking side, much like Forest when they were pushing for the top four under Nuno last season.

Though their remaining fixtures are not straightforward, they look well-equipped to soak up pressure and nick precious points over the next six games.

The standout performance of the week, however, belonged to Leeds at arch-rivals Manchester United.

Until Monday night, Farke’s survival blueprint had been built on pragmatic, defence-first foundations. The head coach’s approach was inching Leeds towards safety through a succession of low-scoring draws, but it was also leaving them worryingly blunt in attack. Before their trip to Old Trafford, no side had scored fewer Premier League goals per 90 minutes in 2026 than Leeds’ 0.92.

Perhaps it was all part of an elaborate long con, a tactical ruse to lull Manchester United into a false sense of security. Leeds flew out of the traps, adopting an aggressive, front-foot approach that stunned their opponents.

In particular, wing-backs Gabriel Gudmundsson and Jayden Bogle wreaked havoc with their relentless overlapping runs and crosses into the box, with Leeds completing five crosses in the first half, their joint-most this season. Even those that missed their target carried danger, with Okafor’s fifth-minute opener stemming from a Bogle cross that Leny Yoro failed to fully clear under pressure from Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Okafor’s two goals were just reward for an utterly dominant first half, with Leeds generating 2.1 xG (above), their most in the opening 45 minutes this season. By releasing the attacking handbrake, Farke masterminded Leeds’ most memorable display this season, steering them clear of any real relegation danger.

Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?

Are Leeds out of the woods?

Based on Opta’s Power Rankings, they have the easiest run-in of any team in the division — never mind their relegation rivals. Home victories against Wolves and Burnley should be enough to confirm Premier League status for next season, potentially rendering subsequent clashes with Spurs and West Ham irrelevant to their own relegation battle.

Burnley’s tricky end to the season will only rub further salt into their wounds as they become further cut adrift with every passing week.

The real interest lies between the other three teams, with West Ham’s upcoming games deemed the most challenging. They face trips to Crystal Palace, Brentford and Newcastle United.

Fixtures are one thing, but momentum is far more important at this stage. With Spurs’ morale plummeting, their upcoming games suddenly look far trickier than Opta suggests.

Former head coach Thomas Frank said the club is “like a supertanker turning in the right direction” before his dismissal a month later. With only six games remaining, a speedboat is required to pivot quickly towards a better outlook.

What does the supercomputer say?

An advanced statistical simulation model has stumbled upon a staggering discovery: Tottenham are in trouble.

While blindingly obvious to despairing Spurs fans, Opta’s supercomputer quantifies the precise level of gloom that hangs over the north London club. For the first time this season, they are deemed the most likely candidates to fill the final relegation spot (Opta already considers Wolves and Burnley near-certainties to go down), at 49.1 per cent.

The graphic below shows how precipitous their decline has been. At the start of February, their chances were still estimated at less than one per cent, as they held a nine-point buffer to the drop zone. Since then, they have picked up just two points.

Meanwhile, Leeds’ relegation chances have followed almost the opposite trajectory, tumbling from 63.8 per cent at the end of November to just 1.6 per cent after their statement win at Old Trafford. Farke’s side are not quite in flip-flop, sun-lounger territory just yet, but they are in a far more comfortable position than the teams beneath them.

Tottenham’s primary rivals in the relegation fight are West Ham (39.3 per cent), who are in greater peril than Forest (10.1 per cent), with Vitor Pereira’s side continuing to steadily pick up points.

What losing Cristian Romero means for Tottenham’s survival hopes

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Among all the miserable moments and images that have defined Tottenham Hotspur’s season, one of the most striking came in the second half at Sunderland on Sunday.

Cristian Romero, Spurs’ captain, left the field at the Stadium of Light in tears, consoled by almost every one of his team-mates in turn. Pape Matar Sarr kept a caring arm on him, Randal Kolo Muani tried to encourage him, and Micky van de Ven kissed him on the back of the head.

Everyone knew what a painful moment it was for Romero. It was written all over his face.

Romero had injured his knee colliding with Spurs goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky after Brian Brobbey had pushed Romero in the back as he tried to shield the ball. Kinsky was down receiving lengthy medical treatment and had his forehead wrapped up with a black bandage. But ultimately, it was the injury to Romero, whose knee buckled in the collision with his goalkeeper, which may have the most profound impact on Tottenham’s future.

Anyone who saw Romero’s reaction would have inferred that he was facing a spell on the sidelines. The only question was how bad the injury would be, whether it would rule him out of Spurs’ scramble for survival entirely, or whether it would also jeopardise his dreams of appearing in a second World Cup with Argentina this summer.

It has been widely reported, first in Argentina, that Romero has sustained a knee injury and the expectation is that he will play no further part in the six remaining weeks of the season. Tottenham have declined to comment, but Roberto De Zerbi is expected to address it at his media conference on Friday.

That news will be of little solace to Tottenham fans, given the severity of Spurs’ league situation. Everyone knows what a difficult situation they are in right now. Six league games left following Sunday’s 1-0 defeat at Sunderland. Two points behind in-form West Ham United. Three behind Nottingham Forest. And desperately in need of a league win — something they have not achieved since December — in the hope that it might unlock something in the minds of the players.

What makes this injury especially painful is that no player was going to be as important to Spurs’ attempts to stay up as Romero. It is not just that he is arguably the Spurs’ best player. Or even that he is the captain. It is that Romero has a unique mentality, unbending, desperate to win. He has won the lot at international level — one World Cup and two Copa Americas — and was integral to Spurs’ Europa League triumph last season.

Romero has not been at his best this season. There have been plenty of mistakes and needless suspensions. But even in a bad season, he has produced moments — late equalisers at Newcastle and Burnley — that remind you he has the capacity, unlike any other Spurs player, to change the course of a game through force of will.

That is what De Zerbi wanted to tap into. It always felt as if the arrival of De Zerbi could be the best thing for Romero, bringing in a coach who not only played dominant front-foot football, of the sort all players want to play, but who had the passion and conviction that appeals to players too.

In one of his first media appearances at Spurs, De Zerbi told NBC Sports that Romero was “crucial for Tottenham”, was “maybe the most important player in our squad” and that “to achieve our goal, we need the best of Romero”.

Romero arrived for training at the start of last week following international commitments, but was seemingly quickly convinced by his new manager too. In an interview he gave before the Sunderland game, he talked up De Zerbi, calling him a “coach with a lot of passion”, saying he had brought the smiles back to training and pledging that Spurs were “going to be good with him”.

It felt as if that bond would be integral to Spurs’ chances of staying up. If Romero could be De Zerbi’s leader on the pitch and drive the team forward, then maybe between them they could pull off the impossible job.

And there were signs at Sunderland that it might work. One of the first moves of the game started with Romero driving a pass through to Dominic Solanke, who turned, ran, got onto Richarlison’s through ball and produced a cross which Lucas Bergvall nearly converted. Later on in the first half, Romero won a 50-50 and sprinted forward, launching an attack which led to another Solanke effort.

But that knee injury now means we may not see Romero playing for De Zerbi again this season. And whatever happens to Spurs, players like Romero will attract interest in the summer. They will not be playing in Europe next season, and if they go down, not in the season after either. It could well be another summer of speculation over Romero, even though he signed a new long-term deal at the start of this season.

The hope must be that Kevin Danso can come in and provide another secure presence at the back. He has never let Spurs down. But he does not have Romero’s intangibles: his audacity, his uniqueness, his main-character energy.

Spurs’ attempt to stay in the Premier League has just become even harder.

Will Tottenham Hotspur get relegated from the Premier League? Our writers have their say

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Tottenham Hotspur have been edging slowly but steadily towards the Premier League’s bottom three since the turn of the year, but this weekend they finally got sucked in.

West Ham’s win over Wolves on Friday night saw the east Londoners burst out of the drop zone, pushing Spurs beneath them. Spurs were unable to immediately escape, meekly losing 1-0 at Sunderland on Sunday afternoon in Roberto De Zerbi’s first game in charge.

This is the first time Spurs have been in the relegation zone beyond the early weeks of a season since January 2009.

A question that has been a hypothetical for the last few months now feels far more real — could a club that won a major European trophy, played in the Champions League this season, and is the ninth-wealthiest football club in the world, according to Deloitte, really be relegated to the Championship?

We’ll find out over the next few weeks — in the meantime, this is what some of The Athletic’s writers think…

“Will go down” still feels like a stretch. Burnley and Wolves are as good as gone, so we’re talking about four teams (Tottenham, Leeds, Forest and West Ham) separated by three points, fighting to avoid 18th place. That leaves a lot of room for other eventualities. I would have said before this weekend that the weight of probability was still just about in their favour.

But whereas Leeds, Forest and West Ham have all shown they are up for the battle, Tottenham’s form, which has been appalling for 18 months, has got even worse since the turn of the year. There’s absolutely no sign of encouragement in the way they are playing. It’s widely agreed that they have lacked fight, but they also lack resilience, composure, quality, dynamism and pretty much every quality you would want in a team.

I give them a better chance under Roberto De Zerbi than under Igor Tudor, but if you’re demanding I say yes or no, then yes I think they’ll go down. And the way things are going, they’ll be going down without a fight. It’s shocking, really.

Oliver Kay

I think so. With the change in mood following Roberto De Zerbi’s arrival and the three-week break between matches, it was easy to forget that Spurs are just… a really limited team. This latest defeat was a reminder that the players are totally bereft of confidence and quality, and there are too many individuals who do not appear to care enough about the club’s plight.

De Zerbi was the latest manager to largely ignore Xavi Simons on Sunday, which left his side short of creativity, but at this point, you wonder if tinkering with the XI is akin to rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. There is a grim momentum about Spurs’ slide down the table and they bear all the hallmarks of a shock relegation.

As De Zerbi said at the Stadium of Light, Spurs may only need one result to change the mood and remind the players how to win. But with just six games remaining and points to make up on the teams around them, it is increasingly hard to see where that win is coming from and how Spurs get out of this mess.

Dan Kilpatrick

For months, Tottenham were sleepwalking towards relegation. Now they are freefalling into it.

Spurs have been — by a considerable distance — the worst Premier League from either results or performances since the start of the calendar year.

The rot had engulfed itself long before that, of course. Spurs were booed off at home to Chelsea on November 1, when they were fourth. Fans knew early positive results were not only unsustainable but that, to steal Ruben Amorim’s words from Manchester United a year previously, “a storm was coming”.

Spurs were lacking in creativity and flair, but have increasingly lacked physicality, tactical discipline, teamwork or any self-belief. The club’s pondering over Frank’s future and indecisiveness on his successor has led to increasingly panicked and poorly thought-out decisions.

The dreadful 3-1 capitulation at home to Crystal Palace on March 5 was surely the moment Spurs fans thought their nightmare was unfolding in front of their eyes. Players sporadically raised themselves for periods of games against Manchester City, Liverpool or Atletico Madrid, but when the pressure and focus was on them: they have routinely crumbled.

Players look emotionally exhausted and detached from their current status. Any win, never mind several of them, looks a distant prospect.

Colin Millar

I feel like someone should make the case for Spurs staying up, so here goes. In the first half at Sunderland, we saw an unusually positive performance. They created chances in open play, not something they have done too often recently. They even made it to half-time without conceding for the first time in months.

Of course, they fell apart in the second half, collapsing at the first setback again. That is par for the course. But it still feels like just one bit of luck, one win could transform the players’ mentality. As De Zerbi has repeatedly stated, the number one problem at Spurs is in their heads. They just need an injection of belief somehow. With Brighton at home and then Wolves away, they have two games where things might just bounce their way for once. And if they do, they have sufficiently good players to get out of this.

It is starting to feel as if West Ham have real momentum, so they may be beyond catching. But neither Nottingham Forest nor Leeds United are playing brilliantly. And so if Spurs can just somehow scramble one win soon, then perhaps they could generate the momentum to leapfrog one of those two and make it to dry land.

Jack Pitt-Brooke

Yes, barring a drastic change in attitude, they will.

Sunderland’s Stadium of Light has housed plenty of teams bearing all the traits of the doomed and on Sunday it added another to the list. That Spurs were better in the first half is a sign of how bad they have been and how low expectations have dropped. Sunderland were disjointed and sloppy and still their visitors couldn’t put themselves in front. After the break, a team that the situation dictates should be battling did anything but.

It is the latter that will do for them. There is an indignity to this team that belies its apparent talent; they give the impression they simply don’t care enough. To watch Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero, Spurs’ captain, no less, expend more energy on bemoaning decisions than anything else is indicative of the problem. Richarlison careening to the floor at every opportunity, likewise.

Teams without talent go down every year. Two more, in Burnley and Wolves, will this season. While Spurs have overpaid for a lot of average footballers they are also exactly that: average, which is better than relegation. Yet the adage of talent only getting you so far has never looked truer than when watching this Spurs team. They lack heart and it shames them. De Zerbi has a huge job on his hands and it will be a greater shock if he succeeds rather than fails.

Chris Weatherspoon

They deserve to be, but I think they survive by a point or two.

The micro issues are obvious. Some of these players are not good enough. Among those who are, there are a couple playing well within themselves, with minds on the World Cup and their moves away.

But this team is a reflection of what the club has become. Football teams make mistakes — that’s just part of the game — but Spurs have made so many now and have been so slow to correct those that are reversible, that pointing the finger at individual players seems beside the point. There’s a pervasive hopelessness to everything now and even a nationwide appetite to see them relegated; there are too many enemies and there is too much negative momentum.

A healthy team would rally against that — even use it to stoke their revival. With games against Wolves, Brighton, Everton and Leeds left, there is more than enough time to change the course of the season. But we’ve been saying that for months now.

I’m a fan. I have to be positive. Perhaps the only reason I believe that they will survive is because I want them to.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Until about a month ago, I was of the mind that Spurs fans were being overly dramatic about their team’s chances of relegation. Then I watched their 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, and realised that nobody was exaggerating.

As Oli says, it is hard to make a definitive statement when there are still four teams within three points of 18th place. But the clue is in the name: this is a relegation battle, and Tottenham are missing the fight. They look progressively more and more shell-shocked by what is happening to them, but it is putting them into a stupor rather than shaking them awake.

I don’t believe that Spurs are completely without quality — there are some players who are not good enough for what the club want to achieve, but there are plenty who should absolutely be good enough to avoid relegation. Their issue, as everyone knows by this point, is that they completely lack confidence.

Tudor’s short tenure was a disaster: his job description might as well have read ‘new manager bounce’ rather than ‘interim manager’, and it became rapidly clear that no bounce was forthcoming. De Zerbi has better credentials for the post than Tudor, but very little time to snap these players out of their funk. Had he started his tenure with a win, it could have been a springboard, but instead they have gathered so much downward momentum that, if they stay up, I think it will be down to other teams’ favours rather than any resurgence by Spurs.

Cerys Jones

“Tottenham away, ole ole….”.

As Stevenage’s hardy band of 279 travelling fans celebrated what may well prove to be a season-defining victory in their pursuit of the League One play-offs at Bradford City on Saturday, no doubt what possible future fixture was uppermost in their minds.

Tottenham Hotspur. In north London. As Championship peers. A mindboggling prospect that just a few weeks ago I’d have dismissed as fantasy.

Sure, Tottenham were on a bad run. And sure, every Tottenham-sporting colleague seemed to be working themselves up into a frenzy about relegation.

But, this was Tottenham. I’d seen Thomas Frank’s side cruise to a deserved 2-1 victory at Leeds United in October, so felt sure they had the players to get out of trouble, even as results continued to worsen in the New Year.

How could a team with proven Premier League goalscorers such as Richarlison and Dominic Solanke not get the couple of wins they needed to stop the rot? I said the same to anyone who asked about West Ham and Jarrod Bowen.

And then I watched Tottenham’s 3-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest just before the last international break. Wow.

It wasn’t just the loss of three points to a major rival in the fight to avoid the drop. It was the total lack of heart and desire once behind that had ‘relegation’ written all over it. Sunderland on Sunday was similar.

Stevenage may not go on to win promotion from League One. Even if a club who dropped ‘Borough’ from their name in 2010 because it sounded “too non-League” hold on to sixth place, they’d still then have to get the better of some very good teams in the play-offs.

But, if Alex Revell’s side do upset the odds to go up, the Premier League’s first £1billion stadium will next season be hosting a league fixture that no one, not even the most ardent Arsenal fan enjoying their wildest dream, could have forecast.

Richard Sutcliffe

I still can’t quite believe it, but yes, I think they will.

The caveats here are that all of the other three candidates to go down could quite easily collapse at any moment, and only West Ham look close to actively good. It could all change with one win for Spurs, and it maybe isn’t reasonable to expect De Zerbi to have that much of an impact after just one game.

But it now looks like you’re going to need 39, maybe 40 points to stay up this season. West Ham have 32 and the way they’re playing, they might reach that with a couple of games to spare. Forest aren’t playing brilliant football but have 33, play Burnley next weekend, and in the last few games have figured out a way to scrap points from some decent opponents. Leeds have 33 as well, and while they haven’t scored a goal in their last four games (before they play Manchester United tonight), four of their last six fixtures are against other relegation candidates.

In short, of the four, Tottenham currently look the least likely to reach the required figure. Which is why I think they will be relegated.

Nick Miller

I have seen this movie a few times before with another original member of the ‘big five’ in Everton, only for them to somehow find a way to get out of trouble. I think history will repeat itself.

Sure, Tottenham are in the worst run of form of all the remaining relegation candidates fighting to avoid joining Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley in the Championship.

But I believe hiring Roberto De Zerbi, albeit a bit on the late side, is going to pay off. It is not as if Tottenham’s run-in is against lots of teams putting in amazing performances on a regular basis themselves. Even a trip to Chelsea is not that intimidating, given the woeful displays they have been putting in of late, especially at Stamford Bridge.

I just think Spurs will get the few breaks you need to turn the negative momentum around and scrape to safety.

The Briefing: Will playing at Etihad help Arsenal? Are Tottenham done? Is Ngumoha the real thing?

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Welcome to The Briefing, where every Monday during this season, The Athletic will discuss three of the biggest questions to arise from the weekend’s football.

This was the weekend when Manchester City blew Chelsea away, Liverpool picked up a crucial win as those around them dropped points, West Ham put four past Wolves, and Crystal Palace came from behind to beat Newcastle.

Here we will ask if Arsenal’s collective neuroses mean it’s to their advantage that their game of the season will be away from home, whether Tottenham really are heading for relegation, and whether 17-year-old Rio Ngumoha showed he’s the real thing for Liverpool…

Is it better for Arsenal that their biggest game isn’t at home?

Title race extremely on, then.

If you don’t like hype about upcoming fixtures, we would recommend burrowing to the Earth’s core for the next week, because that’s the only way you’ll avoid the build-up to Arsenal’s colossal, massive, quite simply large trip to Manchester City next Sunday.

And with good reason. This isn’t quite a title decider in the sense that the winner will be champions, but it’s not far off. Everyone had been looking forward to this one before the events of this weekend, but it’s even bigger now.

It was perhaps ominous for Arsenal how, at half-time of their 3-0 win over Chelsea on Sunday, City seemingly just decided they were going to be brilliant, after a first half in which they had been relatively average. Rayan Cherki had one of those days where his remarkable best displayed itself in big neon lights, laying on two of the goals and at times toying with a dreadful Chelsea side.

It was familiar: this is the time of year that the great City sides of the past have become unstoppable machines, and there was a look of that on Sunday.

Arsenal were insipid in losing to Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime, a shadow of their imposing best selves that we have seen for much of the season. The football isn’t, to say the least, always scintillating, but they’re usually much more solid and resolute than this. Mikel Arteta’s assessment was that they “did a lot of strange things”, but it was another game in which they became frustrated very quickly, which perhaps inhibited their performance. Confidence is through the floor; the collective neuroses, built up over 22 title-less years, were all over the faces of the players.

They weren’t the only ones: it was notable how soon the crowd at the Emirates appeared to lose patience with their team, and at one point in the first half, Arteta seemed to gesture to some fans to calm down. There was a smattering of boos at full time, an extraordinary state of affairs for a team who were at that stage nine points clear at the top of the Premier League.

This is not to say that the fans are the biggest problem, but there seems to be a nervous energy around the Emirates that isn’t helping anyone. Which is why you wonder whether it’s actually better for them that next Sunday’s game is away, at the Etihad.

Sure, they will still have to improve on performances that have stagnated for a few weeks now, and Arteta will have to motivate, relax, whatever he can to get his team into the right frame of mind. He might also remind his team that they don’t have to win — City do, but a draw would be OK for Arsenal, leaving them six points clear with City having a game in hand.

But not having to deal with playing at home could help, too. Perhaps it won’t make much of a difference, but Arsenal need something to change at the moment, and removing one layer of pressure might help them.

Is that it for Tottenham Hotspur?

The basic facts tell you that there is still everything to play for in the Premier League relegation race.

Three points separate four teams, with Tottenham currently occupying 18th place and Leeds yet to play this weekend. West Ham and Nottingham Forest are between those two, so with six more rounds to go, in theory, it’s shaping up to be a thoroughly entertaining scrap for survival.

But then you watch the games, and you start to feel much less optimistic about Tottenham’s chances of staying up.

All of the noises coming out of the club this week suggested that everyone is much happier now that Roberto De Zerbi is in charge, which may well be true, but that apparent mood lift wasn’t apparent in a 1-0 defeat to Sunderland that looked an awful lot like their previous defeats.

Nordi Mukiele’s deflected goal was extremely lucky, but Tottenham’s performance was littered with wasted chances, poor decisions and a troubling lack of resilience to setbacks.

The difference between Tottenham and their rivals is that the other relegation candidates all have something to recommend them. Leeds have apparently forgotten how to score goals, but they have points on the board and are still to play Wolves and Burnley at home.

Forest aren’t exactly playing dazzling football, but they’re chiselling out points, and Chris Wood’s return to fitness couldn’t have been timed better. West Ham just look like a good team again, not merely one in fine form: in a league table from when they beat Spurs on January 17, they would be fifth.

What can you say in favour of Tottenham?

That they have theoretically good players? Those players have put them in this position. That De Zerbi will make a difference? Well, yes, perhaps, but that’s hope currently based on no evidence. That they’re Tottenham and the idea of them being relegated feels absurd? Get used to it, because it could well be happening.

Is Rio Ngumoha the real thing?

It’s not necessarily a sign that everything else is going brilliantly when a 17-year-old is a team’s most threatening player, but in a season that has not been blessed with dazzling highs for Liverpool, they will take whatever positives are available.

Rio Ngumoha is extremely highly rated and has shown examples of why in flashes this season: a late winner against Newcastle here, a lively cameo off the bench there. But Saturday’s 2-0 win over Fulham was just his second start in the Premier League, and it also felt like his first proper ‘performance’.

His goal was brilliantly taken, but maybe more exciting was how he constructed the chance for himself, cutting in with those frantic feet from the left, jinking once to set the defence on their heels, then jinking again to create a little space and the correct angle for the shot. It was like he was testing the Fulham back line for weaknesses, looking for holes, before finding one and busting it wide open.

It wasn’t an isolated incident either: he nearly did something very similar at least twice more in the game, and the way he systematically broke Fulham down suggested that there’s more than just skill and speed there, that there’s a keen football brain, too, which isn’t a given for someone of his age. Put all that together and you’ve got something very exciting.

It also almost felt like Ngumoha’s goal served as a reminder for Mohamed Salah, who scored a mirror image version of his strike shortly afterwards. It was as if the great No 11 watched the kid on the other wing and said, “Oh, yeah, I used to do that all the time.”

The debate is now whether he should start against Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday. “He would take it in his stride,” Virgil van Dijk told the media after he was asked how the youngster would deal with such a thing.

On this evidence, you can’t disagree.

Coming up

If Spurs are relegated, the success of Sunderland will be partly to blame

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If Tottenham Hotspur are relegated next month, to the list of internal reasons the club will provide for their demise should be added an unexpected external factor: Sunderland.

One year ago the Wearsiders were beaten at home by Swansea City in the Championship on the way to finishing fourth and entering the play-offs against Coventry City, then Sheffield United. Sunderland won those dramatically, but by the skin of their teeth. No one in the Premier League watching was thinking Sunderland would be a serious presence in the division this season.

The general feeling was Sunderland would follow the recent pattern of clubs promoted via the play-offs going straight back down. Remember that angst about the status of newly-promoted clubs and the debate surrounding a lack of sporting competitiveness? The existing Premier League clubs felt locked in, with Spurs’ ability to coast through the end of the their domestic season as they focused on the Europa League an example of imbalance. Spurs had already won a European trophy as Sunderland prepared for the play-off final.

Southampton’s dismal experience last season was fresh in the mind. Thus, even when Sunderland’s players and staff celebrated downstairs at Wembley in May in their ‘We Are Back’ T-shirts, they were being asked sceptically about being ‘Premier League-ready’.

If that sounded harsh, more pessimism was encountered when majority shareholder Kyril Louis-Dreyfus turned up for the club’s first Premier League meeting the following month. As he told The Athletic in December: “At the start of the season everyone thought we were going to finish last. I went to the Premier League meeting in June and that was the consensus.”

But here they are, two points off Chelsea in sixth, having just beaten two teams, in Newcastle United and Tottenham, who were playing knockout Champions League football a few weeks ago.

Sunderland have won 12 and drawn 10 of 32 league games. Their three-game losing streak in February is the only time they have suffered consecutive defeats. Only Fulham have done the double over them (though Manchester United still can do that when they visit the Stadium of Light). There have been stirring comebacks against Bournemouth and Arsenal. Unlike Spurs, for example, Sunderland are more than the sum of their parts. Unlike Spurs yesterday, teamwork, attitude and commitment have been conspicuous.

These consecutive victories over Newcastle and Tottenham, however, may still not alter the fact Regis Le Bris’ rising team are flying under the radar. At Sunderland’s training ground last Friday, Le Bris was asked whether a comparative lack of national appreciation for this season bothered him at all. Sunderland’s win at Newcastle after all had been warped into a referendum on Eddie Howe and his situation at St James’ Park; now Sunderland were about to face Tottenham and all the noise was about their new coach Roberto De Zerbi and the trials of Spurs.

Le Bris, not a man for verbal jousting, replied: “I think we have our own journey, so the noise can be the noise, no problem.”

All season Le Bris’ mantra had been “40 points”. Sunderland reached the target with a 1-0 win at Leeds United at the beginning of March. Leeds, too, can change perceptions of promoted clubs. They did finish 24 points above Sunderland in last season’s Championship, though, and were in the Premier League three seasons ago.

After Elland Road, Le Bris called a meeting with his squad to discuss what comes next.

“They expected something new,” he said, “because this is their future and they always need something to achieve. It was important to design the right objective, but it’s not always easy to say ‘now we’ve achieved 40 points, let’s go for 60.’ You never know, you lose your first three games and that target is over.

“It’s more about the vision and this is connected with daily standards. You can achieve a big target if you’re working hard every day. We have to enjoy what we are doing, it’s not always easy when you lose, it’s different. But when you win, you can grow.”

Having a growth mindset was a Tony Mowbray phrase while at the club; Le Bris has talked more often about Sunderland’s “underdog mindset”.

Both will continue in parallel over the next six games, which will determine whether Sunderland play European football for the first time since 1973.

Le Bris dealt with that question yesterday with the dexterity of Enzo Le Fee — “for me it’s not on my mind at the minute because we are 10th.

“The main objective was to stay in the league… the ambition is to be a top-10 club.”

Le Fee’s exquisite touch set up Brian Brobbey for his thumping equaliser at Spurs in January. Losing four points to Wearside will not have been considered last August in London N17.

A European place would be remarkable, though, given there were 14 new signings on top of that late May play-off. It is why, even when the likes of Granit Xhaka and Habib Diarra were signed, there was a belief Sunderland would stumble, then struggle.

The euphoric opening day win at home against ‘Graham Potter’s West Ham’ set a tone, but when players left for AFCON in December it was thought this was the moment of subsidence. Then, without the likes of Noah Sadiki, Sunderland beat Newcastle, drew at Brighton & Hove Albion and at home against Manchester City.

Nordi Mukiele’s deflected winner against Spurs means Le Bris’ side have taken 29 points at home. Last season Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton accumulated 28 points between them in home games.

It is not all perfect at the club, there has been a disconcerting level of churn off the field as well as on it, but had Sunderland been the weakest link as anticipated, Tottenham would be fourth-bottom and most definitely not as concerned about relegation as their new coach De Zerbi was here.

At the Stadium of Light Sunderland have beaten West Ham, Wolves, Burnley and Spurs, with Forest next to come here. They have shaken complacency, bucked a worrisome trend and done the Premier League a sporting favour. Sunderland have made a bit of noise.

Tottenham are out of luck. Getting some might be the one thing that can save them

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Tottenham are out of luck. Getting some might be the one thing that can save them - The New York Times
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The problem with appointing your third manager of the season with seven Premier League games left, when you have not won for more than three months, and all your creative players are injured, is that you desperately need your luck to be in.

Over the course of a 38-game season, you can hope that some of the impact of fortune, of randomness, of contingent little football events, bounces, decisions, injuries, and human error, might be levelled out by the sample size. But if you judge over just seven games, and those games are played under pressure like this, then luck will inevitably play the decisive role.

This is the situation that Roberto De Zerbi has walked into at Spurs. He has just signed a five-year contract. He should be able to build an exciting Tottenham this summer, one that can make his ideas real on the pitch. But to get to that point, to be able to start planning for the future, first he needs to survive this seven-game gauntlet. During which his team are exposed like never before to the random bounces of a relegation scrap.

We always like to think of managers as all-powerful, sitting in front of a dashboard of buttons and levers, able to adjust the variables until they get the desired result. That is never really the case, but it has never been less true than in the case of De Zerbi.

He has arrived at Spurs with almost no buttons to press or levers to pull. No transfer window, a squad struck by another injury crisis, with confidence on the floor and precious little time with the players. He has had to radically simplify his football, just keeping it to a few digestible principles, and hope that his force of personality can unlock something in the players.

And above all, given the stakes, given the limited time, hope that the ball bounces their way. It is not De Zerbi’s fault that he is rolling dice in the dark.

So when Tottenham showed up here at the Stadium of Light on Sunday afternoon, it was never going to be a radically different performance. There was never any prospect of Spurs mastering the complexities of De Zerbi’s ideal game, with all of its bright originality, its intricate patterns. Instead, they just came here trying to work hard and be direct.

There is no point trying to sugarcoat it. This was, in large parts, an ugly, scrappy game. Some football was played in the first half, but very little in the second. So much of it hinged on the physical battle between Brian Brobbey and the Tottenham centre-backs. Sunderland were the better team over the course of the game, especially in the second half when they took control and Spurs ran out of steam, ran out of belief. You would struggle to argue that Tottenham were unlucky to lose this game.

But despite all of that, there were moments when Spurs were not exactly lucky either. Or where, in a marginal situation, things did not go their way. Like when Richarlison played in Dominic Solanke, who whipped in a cross which Lucas Bergvall could not quite reach at the near post. Or when Conor Gallagher played in Randal Kolo Muani, who laid it off to Richarlison, who could not connect in a good position. Or when Kolo Muani was awarded an admittedly questionable penalty after colliding with Omar Alderete and Luke O’Nien, only for VAR to overturn it. Or, best of all, when Destiny Udogie crossed from the left, just before the break, the ball fell to Solanke but Robin Roefs saved.

None of these were great chances or necessarily great football, but they were the kind of promising little moments which on a good day fall for you. And there was time for one more when Pedro Porro released Richarlison, who again failed to finish with conviction.

And the problem when things like this keep bouncing against you is that there is always a chance they will bounce against you at the opposite end, too. Tottenham’s defending to let Nordi Mukiele run at them was poor, but when his shot hit Micky van de Ven, it deflected in a way that left Antonin Kinsky no chance.

The biggest single problem Spurs have right now, even bigger than the injury crisis, is the total collapse of the players’ confidence. This is a team who have not won a league game since December, two managers and almost four months ago.

And anyone who has watched them this season knows that as soon as anything goes against them in a game, the players do not know how to cope. This was the story against Nottingham Forest, Atletico Madrid, Crystal Palace, Fulham and far too many other recent defeats to mention. And this is precisely the type of ingrained issue which is very difficult for De Zerbi to just click his fingers and change.

So it was little surprise that Spurs offered very little after Mukiele’s goal. But there was still another slice of bad luck to come, when Cristian Romero was nudged into Kinsky by Brobbey, colliding with his ‘keeper in such a way that he left the field in tears with a suspected knee injury.

At the end, when Van de Ven was sitting exhausted on the floor, Udogie down on his haunches, it was a far too familiar sight: Spurs looking beaten, almost broken, adrift with nothing to cling to. Tottenham are now two points behind West Ham United, and three behind Nottingham Forest and Leeds United. Every red light is flashing.

Of course, there are still six games left. When Spurs host Brighton on Saturday, they will have a partisan crowd behind them, as well as another week of De Zerbi’s coaching in the bank. But if they are to stay up, they need to win — not just one game but two or maybe three. Right now, they look like they have totally forgotten how to do that, their last league win fading further from memory by the week.

To win those games without playing well, they will need to be lucky. Far luckier than they have been for months. De Zerbi somehow needs to convince them, as remote as it seems, that things might yet turn their way.

Sunderland 1 Tottenham 0: How much trouble are Spurs in? Have they forgotten how to create chances?

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Sunderland 1 Tottenham 0: How much trouble are Spurs in? Have they forgotten how to create chances? - The New York Times
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Tottenham Hotspur suffered defeat in Roberto De Zerbi’s first game in charge and remain in the Premier League relegation zone with only six games remaining.

Sunderland were deserved winners at the Stadium of Light, winning 1-0 thanks to Nordi Mukiele’s heavily deflected effort in the 61st minute. His shot from the edge of the box flicked off the legs of Micky van de Ven and wrongfooted the Tottenham goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky.

Their captain Cristian Romero left the pitch in tears midway through the second half after colliding with Kinsky.

The defeat, Tottenham’s 16th in 32 league games this season, leaves them 18th in the table, two points below West Ham in 17th and three points below Nottingham Forest in 16th position.

At the same time as Spurs were beaten by Sunderland, Forest drew 1-1 at home to Aston Villa, while on Friday night, West Ham thrashed Wolves 4-0. All three teams have six games left to play.

Tottenham are without a Premier League win in 2026 and their next league match is against De Zerbi’s old side Brighton on Saturday, April 18.

Jack Pitt-Brooke analyses the key Tottenham talking points from the Stadium of Light…

How much trouble are Spurs in?

This defeat did nothing to help Tottenham’s miserable Premier League position and leaves them with only six games left to save themselves from relegation.

This was an ugly, scrappy game, with very little good football played by either side. The fact that Romero was substituted in tears in the second half, after a collision with Kinsky, could have even more bearing on the end of this season than the fact that Spurs lost the game.

If he misses more of the run-in, Spurs will be without their captain and arguably most talented player.

This was by no means the worst that Spurs have played in recent months. They worked hard as a team, they matched Sunderland for long periods and the only goal of the game was an unfortunate deflection off Van de Ven.

But Spurs cannot afford to be this unlucky when they are stuck in the drop zone with six games left. They need the ball to start bouncing their way if they are to play Premier League football next season.

Did anything look different under De Zerbi?

As De Zerbi had explained at length before the game, there was no chance for him to implement anything like his own distinctive style of play during his limited time with the Spurs players.

Tottenham were more positive than they had been for much of this season so far, but there was little by way of intricate press-baiting or complicated passing patterns. The goalkeeper Kinsky was often happy just to hit the ball long when he needed to.

De Zerbi went for Richarlison and Randal Kolo Muani as high, wide wingers, either side of Dominic Solanke. Conor Gallagher and Lucas Bergvall were brought into a high-energy midfield. And in a throwback to the tactics when Ange Postecoglou was in charge, full-backs Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie often cut inside to attack when Spurs had the ball.

Tottenham were happy to go direct and play on the break, but they often looked short of quality in the final third. Richarlison struggled with his close control and Kolo Muani made too many bad decisions. And Spurs’ energy and commitment counted for very little, because they struggled to create, whereas Sunderland managed to get through in the end.

Have Tottenham forgotten how to create chances?

One of the stories of the season at Spurs has been their inability to create chances, especially in open play. This was the same for Thomas Frank and Igor Tudor, and is one of the most important issues De Zerbi has to solve if he is to keep Spurs up.

Of course, it does not help that Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison have not played at all this season, as they both recover from knee surgeries. Wilson Odobert is currently out with an ACL problem of his own, and Mohammed Kudus has just suffered another quad injury, leaving De Zerbi’s Spurs desperately short of players who can make things happen in the final third.

So De Zerbi today went for a front three made up of strikers, with three central midfielders. Mathys Tel came on halfway through the second half. But it left Spurs short, yet again, of ideas to create things. Their best fit creative player, Xavi Simons, only came on with six minutes of normal time remaining.

And while Spurs had a few half-chances — especially for Richarlison and Solanke in the first half — they needed one of them to go in. Even the pressure at the end of the game never really amounted to very much.

This is a team that looks like it has forgotten how to create, and that is a huge problem.

What did De Zerbi say?

We will bring you this after he has spoken at the post-match press conference.

What next for Spurs?

Tottenham, be warned: These five clubs thought they were too big to go down

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Tottenham, be warned: These five clubs thought they were too big to go down - The New York Times
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It is one of this season’s most compelling and unexpected Premier League plot lines: the shock unravelling of Tottenham Hotspur.

The north Londoners are in the relegation places with eight games left and are still waiting for their first league win of the calendar year. The prospect of Tottenham dropping out of the top flight for the first time since the 1970s is beginning to feel real.

Two-time champions of England, members of the domestic game’s ‘Big Six’, reigning Europa League winners, with a £1.2billion ($1.6bn at the current rate) stadium and having made it to this season’s Champions League last 16 — Spurs going down to the Championship would be an almighty shock.

But they would not be the first club to suffer a previously unthinkable relegation from across Europe and beyond. The Athletic takes a look at five of the most shocking demotions in football history.

Atletico Madrid, 1999-2000

Few, if any, clubs are actually too big to go down. Atletico, one of Spain’s biggest and most storied teams, realised that at the start of this century as they dropped out of La Liga.

Wracked by financial worries and a criminal investigation, Atletico tumbled out of the Spanish top flight after 65 years at the conclusion of the 1999-2000 season when they finished second-bottom of the 20-team table.

They started that season with ambition and a squad featuring international stars such as newly-signed Netherlands international striker Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, prised away from Leeds United, Argentina’s Santiago Solari, and Spain midfielders Ruben Baraja and Juan Carlos Valeron. However, in the December, Atletico’s president Jesus Gil and his board were suspended pending an investigation into the misuse of club funds, and the team’s form began to flounder.

Future Premier League-winning manager Claudio Ranieri was in charge, but by March, with Atletico in 17th place, he resigned. His replacement Radomir Antic was unable to steer them clear of the bottom three.

“It was an extremely bizarre year,” says Atletico fan and DAZN commentator Fran Guillen. “It began as a very promising project and it fell apart little by little, in a very agonising way, buried by the many non-sporting problems.”

Just four years previously, Atletico had won a La Liga and Copa del Rey double. Their success even attracted the great Italian coach Arrigo Sacchi to take his only job outside his homeland in summer 1998 (though he lasted less than a year and left with them in the bottom half of the league).

It made their sudden fall from grace even more bewildering.

“It was a season so full of paradoxes,” says Guillen. “Atletico ended up being relegated despite having Hasselbaink in their squad, who finished the competition with 24 goals (only one player in La Liga scored more). Nobody could expect an outcome like that. But it is extremely unfair to analyse that season only through the football. It was a perfect storm caused by what happened with Gil, and it ended up pushing the project to the abyss.

“Some of the players have since said that Atletico was a victim of what happened to Gil (who was also mayor of the Spanish resort city of Marbella at the time) and Kiko, who was one of the main leaders in the dressing room, said they didn’t talk about football during the whole year. It is impossible to compete in an environment like that.”

For many supporters, the setback eventually brought them closer to their club. “Once the initial shock was overcome, the fans became even more loyal,” says Guillen. “They sold a record number of season tickets for the first season in the second division. The worse the team was, the more the stands responded.”

Although Guillen says it is hard to find many other positives from that period, Atletico only spent two seasons out of the top flight. Returning club icon Luis Aragones, who had won La Liga with Atletico both as a player and manager in the 1960s and 1970s, led them to promotion in 2002, while also unleashing a future hero in teenage striker Fernando Torres.

River Plate, 2010-11

River Plate are, alongside fierce Buenos Aires rivals Boca Juniors, the most successful club in the history of Argentine domestic football. So when they went down in 2011, it made headlines around the world.

The game that sealed their fate, at River’s Monumental stadium, had to be abandoned and players helped to get off the pitch as the crowd rioted with the home side 3-1 down on aggregate in a promotion/relegation play-off with a minute of the 90 to go. Police then battled to disperse rampaging supporters after the first relegation in the club’s then 110-year history. Dozens of people were reportedly injured.

“There’s a state of mourning,” Marcelo Roffe, president of the Argentine Association of Sports Psychology, told La Nacion that year. “Because River Plate is the most successful Argentine club, and their established tradition makes it difficult for them to process the idea of ​​what’s about to happen.”

The newspaper even reported a spike in River Plate fans taking antidepressants and suffering relationship problems during that season. “Some face the situation, but many choose to shut themselves away, miss work, or not interact with their office colleagues,” Roffe also told La Nacion.

In an interview with The Athletic in 2018, the club’s then teenage defender Leandro Gonzalez Pirez recalled being part of that doomed side. “You find yourself in a situation that you hadn’t dreamed about,” he said. “I was forced to grow up quickly. There was a lot of pressure and tension.”

River Plate returned to the top flight in 2012, finishing top of the second-division table, and were crowned champions of Argentina two years later.

Leeds United, 2003-04

In England, Aston Villa and Newcastle United were major stories when they were relegated from the Premier League (Villa in 2016, Newcastle in 2009 and also in 2016). Both have since returned to the top division and blossomed into clubs competing for major honours.

But one other current Premier League club fell harder and faster.

Leeds were a traditional powerhouse of the English game and in the early 2000s seemed to be on the up once again. They finished third in the 1999-00 Premier League and fourth in 2000-01, while also reaching the semi-finals of the Champions League in the latter season. The following year, they finished fifth in the top flight.

But then it all fell to pieces.

It started with relegation in 2004 for a squad that appeared to have far too much talent to go down, including Paul Robinson, Alan Smith, Mark Viduka, Jermaine Pennant, Ian Harte and a young James Milner. Manager Peter Reid left in the November, and replacement Eddie Gray could not keep them up.

Three years later, Leeds dropped into League One (the English third tier) after being docked 10 points for going into administration. That deduction meant the Yorkshire club finished bottom of the 24-team Championship. A legacy of spending beyond their means had bitten hard, and they spent three seasons in the third division before winning promotion in 2010. Leeds returned to the Premier League in 2020, got relegated again in 2023 but came back up for the current campaign.

‘They are a great club,” wrote The Athletic’s Leeds correspondent Phil Hay in 2024, “a famous club who didn’t so much fall on hard times as get skewered by them.”

Manchester City, 1995-96 and 1997-98

If it is hard to imagine a side as big as Leeds sinking so low, then what of a clubwho have won eight Premier League titles since 2012?

Huge investment from Abu Dhabi and manager Pep Guardiola’s brilliance have transformed Manchester City into one of Europe’s major players, but in 1998 they suffered the ignominy of dropping to the domestic third tier almost a decade before it happened to Leeds.

Relegated from the Premier League in 1996, City spent two years in the second tier before going down again to what is now League One in 1998.

Then owned by a consortium of British businessmen, including their former player Francis Lee, City were far from the massively wealthy club they would become, but even so, they had expected to go back up that season as champions of the First Division — today’s Championship.

“I arrived in the belief we would win the First Division and go straight back to the Premier League,“ says Gerard Wiekens, a Dutch midfielder signed in summer 1997. “It didn’t work out like that.

“Of course, this was before the huge wealth came, but City were still a big club. We had a big fanbase and the expectation was we would not long be out of the top flight.”

Wiekens recalls a squad that was ill-suited to the challenge of a second-tier relegation fight.

“We had Georgi Kinkladze (their Georgian playmaker), who was a wonderful, skilful player, and we had bought (striker) Lee Bradbury from Portsmouth for a club-record £3million ($4m at the current rate). We all thought we would be fine at first, but we lost a lot of games and suddenly were in a relegation battle. Georgi had done really well in the Premier League but he didn’t play as much (in the First Division) because we suddenly needed different qualities, like fight and graft over flair.”

“I don’t remember what I did that night, probably cried,“ says Wiekens, who experienced three promotions and two relegations during his five seasons at City.

“My advice to Tottenham fans would be to support the team. Try not to become too negative, because even though it is understandable, it makes things worse. The Tottenham players are probably good enough to stay there (in the Premier League) but when you are in that position, and it’s unexpected, it is difficult.”

Schalke, 2020-21

Schalke have qualified for the Champions League eight times this century, and reached its semi-finals in 2011. They have 200,000 club members, the third-most in Germany and the sixth-highest number in world football. But in the 2020-21 season, ravaged financially by the Covid-19 pandemic and a succession of managerial changes, they were relegated to the 2.Bundesliga.

“When I speak to other fans about the relegation sometimes, we’re still not quite sure how it happened,” says Niklas Heising, a Schalke supporter who is a journalist for leading German newspaper Bild. “It caught us by surprise.”

The Gelsenkirchen-based side burned through five managers in that 2020-21 campaign, before ultimately finishing bottom of the 18-team Bundesliga.

Their ill-fated campaign began with an 8-0 defeat at Bayern Munich and worries over ailing finances.

“Gelsenkirchen is one of the poorest regions in Germany, with areas of low employment. The club means so much to the area,” says Heising. “Covid was a tough time for everyone, all clubs and businesses, but it was particularly bad timing for Schalke.

“I remember when relegation was confirmed by a 1-0 defeat at Arminia Bielefeld (in the April). I was at home, isolating alone and watching it on the TV. I didn’t cry — I think I was in shock. It was miserable.”

Following that Bielefeld defeat, the players had returned by coach to their Veltins-Arena stadium to meet with 500 fans. The event did not go well.

Angry supporters pelted them with eggs and chased them around the stadium before police arrived. German website Sport 1 quoted an unnamed Schalke player as saying: “The fans attacked us. We just ran. It was fear, pure fear. I was just running. Some of us got kicked and punched.”

Schalke bounced straight back as champions but were relegated again a year later. They are currently top of the 2.Bundesliga with eight games to go and hopeful of a return to the top flight.

It may have gotten tense, even toxic, at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season, but recent history from the River Plate to the Rhine suggests things can always get worse.

“You might think, or even know, it’s going to happen,” says Heising of relegation, “but nothing prepares you for the shock when it does.”

Roberto De Zerbi ‘not surprised’ by Tottenham fans’ backlash over Mason Greenwood comments

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Roberto De Zerbi ‘not surprised’ by Tottenham fans’ backlash over Mason Greenwood comments - The New York Times
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Tottenham Hotspur head coach Roberto De Zerbi has said he was “not surprised” by the backlash from supporters over his public backing of Mason Greenwood.

De Zerbi was Marseille head coach when they signed Greenwood from Manchester United in September 2024. Greenwood was arrested while playing for United on January 31, 2022 on suspicion of rape and assault, and further arrested on February 1, 2022 on suspicion of sexual assault and making threats to kill.

He was charged in October 2022 with one count of attempted rape, one count of controlling and coercive behaviour and one count of assault occasioning actual bodily harm. All three charges related to the same woman.

Greenwood had been due to stand trial in November 2023, but the charges were discontinued by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) in February 2023. The CPS said, “a combination of the withdrawal of key witnesses and new material that came to light meant there was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction.” Greenwood denied all allegations against him.

In November 2025, De Zerbi described Greenwood as “a good person”, adding, “It saddens me what happened to him because I know a very different person from the one portrayed in England”.

Before signing a five-year contract as Tottenham head coach on March 31, three supporters’ groups urged the club not to appoint the Italian, citing his historical support for the one-time England international forward.

After his appointment, the Tottenham Hotspur Supporters’ Trust called on De Zerbi to reaffirm values of “equality, respect, and integrity … backed by meaningful action, including visible and sustained support for women’s charities and organisations working to combat violence against women”.

After addressing the backlash in his first public interview, released on Tottenham’s club channels, the Italian was asked whether he was surprised by the public backlash in his first press conference as head coach on Friday afternoon.

“I wasn’t surprised,” the 46-year-old replied, speaking in his native Italian which was translated by The Athletic. “I was a bit sad and sorry it happened, because I’m sorry if somebody took offence.

“I must repeat what I said the other time. This topic is very close to me, I’m very sensitive about this topic, because of the person I am and because I have a daughter.

“And so I must repeat what I said the other time. I have always been against — always — any type of violence, especially against women. But not only violence, even just sexist jokes or other sexist behaviour. I have a daughter and I’m directly affected by it.

“I know who I am, I know the type of person I am, so I wasn’t annoyed by the questions — I’m just sad about them.”

De Zerbi was then asked whether he hopes Spurs fans will accept his apology.

“Yes, also because I’m not going to go back over this topic,” he said, again in Italian. “I spoke about it in my first interview, I spoke about it today, and it wouldn’t be right to go back over this topic again.”

The former Brighton and Hove Albion coach will take charge of Tottenham for the first time on Sunday, when they travel to the Stadium of Light to face Sunderland.

Following West Ham United’s 4-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Friday, Spurs are 18th in the Premier League, in the relegation zone for the first time this season.

Spurs are in the relegation zone for the first time all season. How will they, West Ham and Wolves feel?

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Spurs are in the relegation zone for the first time. How will they, West Ham and Wolves feel? - The New York Times
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For the first time this season, Tottenham Hotspur have slipped into the Premier League relegation zone.

West Ham’s 4-0 win against Wolverhampton Wanderers on Friday means they have climbed above their London rivals into 17th position in the 20-team table. Spurs, two points behind West Ham and 16th-placed Nottingham Forest, are 18th. They have not won in 13 Premier League games, going back to December. It is the first time they have been in the relegation zone since August 2015, after their first game of that season.

There are caveats.

Spurs now have a game in hand over West Ham, and if they win their fixture this weekend away to Sunderland on Sunday, they will climb back out of the bottom three with six matches to play. They have also just appointed Roberto De Zerbi as their new head coach, and will be hoping his arrival sparks an upturn in form.

But how will they be feeling after seeing West Ham get the result at home to Wolves? What about West Ham, now that head coach Nuno Espirito Santo has navigated them out of the relegation zone? And what will be the Wolves perspective?

The Athletic’s experts Liam Tharme, Roshane Thomas and Steve Madeley answer those questions.

Spurs have dropped into the relegation zone. How will they feel about it — and Friday’s game?

Pressure. They will be feeling the pressure. Results are king in relegation scraps, but performances matter too. West Ham took time to get going on Friday evening, struggling initially to deal with their visitors’ back-five shape and midfield three. But they showed the resilience that Spurs have lacked recently and continued to build once Konstantinos Mavropanos headed in Jarrod Bowen’s inswinging cross for the opening goal late in the first half.

The worry for Tottenham is how cohesive West Ham look. They have multiple goalscoring threats, two excellent wingers in Bowen and Cryscencio Summerville and an outstanding technical midfielder in Matheus Fernandes. One can only imagine how much De Zerbi would want him for Spurs’ build-up.

Opta had the pre-match probability of West Ham avoiding relegation at just under 42 per cent. That figure has been on the rise all calendar year, and one pre-game stat stood out: Wigan Athletic in 2012-13 were the last instance of 18th place having as many points (29) as West Ham did after 31 matches. Spurs are going to need multiple wins on the run-in to survive in the top flight.

Nuno’s side also just kept their third clean sheet in the Premier League in 2026, whereas those are rare for Spurs. They have not shut out Premier League opposition since a 0-0 draw with Brentford on New Year’s Day. The concern will be how — and if — an attack-minded coach such as De Zerbi can elevate them going forward while also fixing a leaky defence.

He made the point in his first press conference earlier on Friday that having just seven matches left only gives time for he and his coaches to impart simple principles, not layers of complex tactical detail.

West Ham are showing the kind of consistency, unity and identity Tottenham desperately need.

Liam Tharme

West Ham’s win has seen them climb out of the bottom three. Will they be confident of staying up?

West Ham moving out of the drop zone at the expense of London rivals and fellow relegation candidates Tottenham is a huge psychological boost for the players. The last time Nuno’s side were out of the bottom three was March 14, but there will be renewed optimism that they can climb further up the table over the remaining six games.

Given West Ham’s disappointing FA Cup quarter-final exit to visitors Leeds United in a see-saw tie that went to a penalty shootout on Sunday, they responded in clinical fashion back at the London Stadium to sweep aside a last-placed but improved Wolves. The win was all the more satisfying considering they had been beaten by Wolves twice this season — in August in the Carabao Cup and in January’s reverse league fixture.

Summerville made his first appearance tonight since a calf injury in the FA Cup win against Brentford a month ago, Taty Castellanos showed why he was a long-standing West Ham target by scoring his fourth goal since a January move from Lazio of Italy, Mavropanos continued his resurgence under Nuno and club captain Bowen registered two assists in a league game for the first time this season. Most importantly, West Ham kept their first clean sheet since the 1-0 defeat of Fulham on March 4.

Friday’s result and performance set them up nicely for fixtures against Crystal Palace (away) a week on Monday and Everton (home) five days later.

West Ham needed a morale-boosting display at the London Stadium, where they will play half of their remaining six games. If they continue to play like this, there should yet be scenes of jubilation come the season finale there against Leeds on May 24.

Roshane Thomas

Wolves are 15 points adrift of safety with six games to play. Is it now over for them — or has it been over for a long time?

Wolves will have left east London with a sense of frustration; not that their hopes of Premier League survival this season were shattered in defeat — those hopes had realistically gone some while back.

They will return to the Midlands frustrated that the momentum created in recent weeks, entirely unrelated to their chances of avoiding the drop, was halted in a game in which there was plenty for their fans and head coach Rob Edwards to like.

They had lost just once in six Premier League matches before the absurd 25-day break from football that preceded their trip to the London Stadium, courtesy of an international window and last weekend’s FA Cup quarter-finals, and the confidence they had generated was there to see tonight in a pleasing first 35 minutes.

But they failed to make the most of that dominance and then lost the game to three moments of careless defending. In the end, it was the kind of trouncing Wolves became used to earlier in the season when, for much of the first half, they had looked like their more recent selves.

Avoiding the drop to the Championship has been no more than theoretical for months, though. Even before this game, they needed to win a minimum of six from their final seven fixtures to have any semblance of a chance of staying up. For a team whose previous six league wins have taken a year to compile, it was never on the cards.

So defeat does not change the overall mood at Molineux or among the club’s fans, who are already focused on a huge summer ahead of what they hope will be a 2026-27 promotion campaign.

But West Ham will be hoping they have not inflicted too many psychological scars with this lop-sided victory, bearing in mind Wolves play two more of the relegation candidates in Leeds and Tottenham in their next two games.

Steve Madeley