Premier League Predictions: Newcastle vs Spurs, Leeds vs Chelsea and the rest of Matchday 14
Welcome to matchday 14 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where the games are now coming thick and fast.
We have entered a six-week period that will see 80 Premier League matches played. That’s more than one-fifth of the campaign squeezed into 41 days.
This is when seasons can be defined, when momentum can be built up or squandered irretrievably — and that applies as much to our predictions table as it does the real Premier League.
Each week, four of us — a guest subscriber, an algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and I — are predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so the algorithm got four points for being the only one to predict a 1-1 draw between Chelsea and Arsenal.
And that bonus point allowed the algorithm to leapfrog me and return to the top of the table after a two-week hiatus in which I blew the opportunity to move clear.
The table is now incredibly tight, with only seven points between the four of us. Wilfred’s excellent recent run continued with five correct results and a bonus point for being the only one to predict Brighton’s win at Nottingham Forest.
Our guest subscriber, Kian, got four correct results but was let down by his own team, Forest. Wilfred and the subscribers are now level on 81 points, with young Wilfred placed higher because he has had more correct scoreline predictions.
This week’s guest subscriber is Ben, a Wolverhampton Wanderers supporter from Walsall.
Over to you, Ben.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday, 7.30pm UK/2.30pm ET
Ben says: Admittedly, almost all Wolves fans have lost hope that this most miserable of seasons can be salvaged, but a win against an improving Forest could at least muster some positive momentum for Rob Edwards' tenure as manager. Alas, our distinct lack of quality makes it almost impossible to forecast where our first victory is going to come from.
Wolves 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Oli says: When Derby County ended the 2007-08 season with just 11 points (one win, eight draws, 29 defeats), it looked like a record that would not be broken in the Premier League. But Southampton came close last season (12 points) and this season Wolves, at their current rate, are on course for just six. But they’re not that bad, are they? Are they? Even in defeat at Aston Villa on Sunday, there were some encouraging signs for their new coach Rob Edwards. Perform like that against Forest and they won’t lose. Well, they might not lose.
Wolves 1-1 Nottingham Forest
The rest of Oli's predictions
Fulham vs Manchester City
Fulham’s record against Manchester City since the start of 2012: played 18, lost 18. They haven’t beaten the Manchester club since April 2009, which is so long ago that City had Mark Hughes in charge, Richard Dunne in defence, Kelvin Etuhu in midfield and Valeri Bojinov in attack. Fresh from an excellent win at Tottenham Hotspur, Fulham might fancy their chances. It could be a tight game. Tight enough for Fulham’s needs? Perhaps not quite.
Fulham 1-2 Manchester City
Bournemouth vs Everton
Everton have never won a league match at Bournemouth. They had never crossed paths in the league until Bournemouth’s promotion to the top flight in 2015, but even so, a record of two draws and six defeats in eight league visits since then is pretty grim Both clubs had such a miserable weekend — Everton beaten 4-1 at home by Newcastle while Bournemouth fell to a 3-2 defeat at Sunderland from 2-0 up — that it’s not easy to imagine either of them bouncing back convincingly on Tuesday.
Bournemouth 1-1 Everton
Newcastle vs Tottenham
It’s been such a strange season for Newcastle United. An emphatic win at Everton on Saturday looked like a corner had been turned, but then again, so did the victory over Manchester City, which was followed by a disappointing Champions League defeat in Marseille. Playing two games a week has been a struggle, but then the same applies to Tottenham, whose form over the last couple of months has been dreadful. It looks like the kind of game — opposition, kick-off time — that Newcastle should relish.
Newcastle 2-0 Tottenham
Brighton vs Aston Villa
This should be an excellent game between two teams in impressive form. Brighton & Hove Albion, in fifth place, have taken 10 points from their last four matches and Villa, in fourth, have taken 18 points from their last seven. Logically, Villa appear better equipped to puruse Champions League qualification. It won’t be easy, but a win on the south coast would be a significant statement of intent from Unai Emery’s team.
Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa
Burnley vs Crystal Palace
A Tuesday night in December doesn’t seem the ideal time to play Burnley at Turf Moor. For Palace, it’s the fourth in a run of 14 games in 47 days and there are signs that Oliver Glasner’s players are starting to feel the strain. It’s the type of game where Burnley really need to get something after four straight defeats.
Burnley 1-1 Crystal Palace
Arsenal vs Brentford
Forgive me for not indulging the narrative-friendly idea that Arsenal’s title challenge is faltering after two draws in their last three Premier League games. Injuries to William Saliba and Gabriel are a concern, as is Saturday’s trip to Aston Villa and a congested fixture list, but I don’t see much fragility in Mikel Arteta’s team at the moment. As impressively as Brentford are playing, this looks like a routine home win. Caveat: perhaps less routine if Saliba is not fit in time to return.
Arsenal 2-0 Brentford
Leeds vs Chelsea
In theory, this is the kind of fixture that should bring out the best in Leeds United. As Beren Cross wrote, their spirited second-half performance at Manchester City on Saturday offered hope even if the game's climax predictably brought disappointment. Chelsea’s confidence should be high after a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Arsenal on Sunday, but a three-day turnaround is difficult and they will be without the suspended Moises Caicedo. It should be an interesting test for Enzo Maresca’s team.
Leeds 1-1 Chelsea
Liverpool vs Sunderland
The weird thing about the terrible run Liverpool have been on is that, while they have lost nine of their last 13 games in all competitions, their four wins in that period have been genuinely impressive. At West Ham United on Sunday, it was all very controlled and composed for a team supposedly in the midst of a crisis. Players such as Ibrahima Konate and Alexis Mac Allister, who have struggled this season, showed no hint of their previous struggles. Every time they have led in any game this season, they have won. It is when they fall behind that they seem to turn to jelly. A high-flying Sunderland team will pose far more serious questions, but if Liverpool score first, they will probably win.
Liverpool 2-1 Sunderland
Manchester United vs West Ham
With the table so congested, winning games can change a team’s mood and prospects significantly. Manchester United were 12th going into last Sunday’s game at Crystal Palace, but by coming from behind to win at Selhurst Park, they climbed to seventh, just four points behind second-placed Manchester City. At some point this season, they will find a buoyancy level. At the moment, that feels likely to be between, say, fifth and 10th. But with no European or Carabao Cup commitments, they have a lighter schedule than most of their rivals and an opportunity to push on and set their sights higher. West Ham, on Sunday’s evidence, are unlikely to trouble them.
Manchester United 2-0 West Ham