The New York Times

The unpredictability of the Premier League is highlighted by the fact that Manchester City are the only team currently on a winning run of more than two games, and they’ve won just three games.

England’s top division is known for its competitive depth, meaning there is usually at least one upset every gameweek. It will be no different this weekend, with 10 fixtures spread across Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Here, The Athletic looks at three games over the weekend that could see the underdogs come out on top.

Newcastle United vs Everton

Saturday, February 28 (3pm GMT, 10am ET)

While Newcastle United have a Champions League last-16 tie against Barcelona to look forward to, Eddie Howe’s team have struggled for domestic consistency of late.

They have won just one of their last six league fixtures, dropping into the bottom half of the Premier League table.

This could offer Everton encouragement ahead of Saturday’s trip to the North East, as could Newcastle’s run of just two wins in their last five matches at St James’ Park. Only three teams (Arsenal, Chelsea and Aston Villa) have won more points on the road than Everton this term.

Priced at 10/3 to come out on top at St James’ Park, there is good value in backing Everton to win their sixth match in their last nine away trips.

There have been over 2.5 goals in Newcastle’s last four league games and Saturday’s match is priced at 8/11 to continue that trend.

Newcastle will be without Bruno Guimaraes, while Jack Grealish is sidelined through injury for Everton. The difference between the two teams in the table could be more than just one point after this weekend’s encounter.

Leeds United vs Manchester City

Saturday, February 28 (5.30pm GMT, 12.30pm ET)

Manchester City can narrow the gap on Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table to just two points by overcoming Leeds United on Saturday, with Mikel Arteta’s side facing Chelsea a day later.

There’s good reason for Pep Guardiola’s team to be favourites: City have won their last five matches against Leeds in all competitions and are the Premier League’s joint-top scorers this season.

Nonetheless, Leeds have been on a good run since the last time they faced Manchester City, when Daniel Farke made a tactical shift that now appears to be getting the best out of his squad.

Leeds have lost two of their last 14 league games. Since losing heavily to Arsenal at the end of January, they have gone unbeaten in games against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, underlining why there could be value in backing a Leeds win over City at 7/2.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the Premier League’s highest-scoring English player, is 11/5 to net his 11th league goal of the season and is 13/1 to bag a brace.

Farke’s team has lost just three times at Elland Road all season and will at least make Manchester City work hard for a result on Saturday.

Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur

Sunday, March 1 (2pm GMT, 9am ET)

After suffering defeat in the north London derby on his debut as Tottenham Hotspur interim manager, Igor Tudor must find a way to get a positive reaction out of his new players at Craven Cottage this Sunday.

The outlook is bleak for Spurs. Their cushion to the relegation zone now stands at just four points following three straight defeats to Manchester United, Newcastle United and Arsenal, and a run of just two wins in 17 league games.

And yet Tottenham’s best results have come away from home this season, suggesting a price of 21/10 for a victory on Sunday might not be the worst punt.

Tudor is expected to set up Spurs in a back three, as he did against Arsenal. Pedro Porro and Djed Spence will give the visitors width as wing-backs, while Randal Kolo Muani will likely keep his place after scoring in the derby.

The French forward is 11/4 to make it two in two against another London opponent this weekend. The price of 3/4 for over 2.5 goals could also be good value, given there have been over 2.5 goals in each of Fulham’s last five league games.

Do you remember where you were 10 years ago today? Because Tottenham Hotspur were on top of the world.

Cast your mind back, if it is not too painful, to February 28, 2016. Mauricio Pochettino’s Spurs hosted Swansea City at White Hart Lane. They went 1-0 down but they never gave up. Sustained by the shared belief of the crowd, Spurs kept battering Swansea, and eventually they broke through. Nacer Chadli equalised and with 13 minutes left, Danny Rose scored the winner. The celebrations were so wild that Pochettino had to stop himself from jumping into the crowd.

At the final whistle, the announcement came through that Arsenal had lost 3-2 at Manchester United. Another roar. Spurs were now three points ahead of Arsene Wenger’s side and just two behind leaders Leicester City. There were only 11 league games left. Swansea caretaker manager Alan Curtis said afterwards that, having seen Spurs up close, he had never been more convinced they could win the Premier League.

For the first time, Tottenham had become the bookmakers’ favourites to win the title.

Their position only strengthened the following Tuesday, when Leicester drew 2-2 at home against West Bromwich Albion. A clear path to the title was opening up.

The next night, March 2, Spurs went to Upton Park, knowing that, if they beat West Ham United, they would overtake Leicester on goal difference with 10 games left. But Slaven Bilic’s side were ferocious and Spurs were caught off guard. West Ham won 1-0 and Spurs had missed an opening.

They missed another opportunity that Saturday, drawing 2-2 against Arsenal at a thrillingly loud White Hart Lane. There were a few minutes, after Harry Kane put them 2-1 up, when Tottenham felt like it was at the centre of the football universe. But Alexis Sanchez equalised and Spurs never got their noses in front of Leicester again.

Spurs ended that season empty-handed. The next season, they were even better, racking up an implausible 86 points, but still losing out to Chelsea. In 2018-19, they flew out of the traps even quicker and were on 45 points by the halfway mark, before falling away.

But since those special days, Tottenham’s story has been about decline. There have been great moments along the way — Amsterdam, Bilbao, a brief spell under Antonio Conte — but the overall trend has been clear. A club being held up as a model to others just 10 years ago — an example of forward thinking, a lesson in doing more with less — look like the opposite.

A decade on from challenging for the title, Tottenham are spending a second consecutive season at the wrong end of the league table. The threat of relegation, unthinkable for a generation, is very real.

One bookmaker, who was offering odds of 7-2 on Spurs winning the Premier League title this time 10 years ago, has them at 9-2 to go down.

How did it come to this? How many mistakes were made along the way, how many opportunities missed or ignored, and what lessons can be learned from this sad drift down the league?

Not refreshing Pochettino’s squad

The fundamental strategic failure was not just the failure to buy Pochettino new players, but also to sell the ones he had.

Pochettino built a great team on a budget, but the life cycle of any team is finite. People get bored of each other. The only way to keep the hunger and energy of the early Pochettino years was to move on players.

Kyle Walker was sold to Manchester City in 2017 but he was the exception rather than the rule. For chairman Daniel Levy, it was a matter of status. He did not want Spurs to look like a selling club. Rose nearly went to Chelsea in 2017, but the deal fell through. Dele Alli never got his big move, even when staff started to wonder if he was losing his edge. Toby Alderweireld fell sharply out of favour but was never moved on. Christian Eriksen was sold to Inter for a relatively small fee with just six months of his contract remaining.

It would have been painful to lose those players, but it would have been a necessary pain. Staff compared it to the need to refresh the water in a swimming pool. And as the whole team stayed together longer than they should have, the project started to go stale.

Not signing anyone in 2018-19

The corollary of not selling enough players is that Spurs did not have the space or the money to bring in new ones. And given the cost of building the new stadium, the club were not exactly flush with cash. They bought Lucas Moura from Paris Saint-Germain in January 2018 — an inspired transfer, given he scored a hat-trick that took Spurs to a Champions League final. But then not a single player came in until the summer of 2019, when Spurs were a very different place.

That is not to say that Spurs did not try to sign anyone. In the summer of 2018, they moved for Jack Grealish, knowing that Aston Villa’s financial situation meant they had to sell. But Levy tried to play it slow, starting the bidding at £3million ($4m at current exchange rates) plus young midfielder Josh Onomah. Spurs gradually started to increase the numbers, but missed their moment. Aston Villa were taken over and their new owners made it clear that Grealish would be going nowhere. Tottenham finished the window empty-handed.

The problem was not just the 2018-19 season, when Spurs had an experienced, if jaded, squad. But that 18-month recruitment gap continued to haunt them for years to come. The whole club were left playing catch-up.

Had they continued to recruit young players towards the end of the 2010s, they would have had more peak-age players in the mid-2020s — something they have lacked in that period.

Replacing Pochettino with Mourinho

Losing the Champions League final to Liverpool in Madrid hit everyone hard, especially after they had flown to the Spanish capital with an almost religious conviction that Spurs would win. When the next season started, Pochettino struggled to find the energy required to lift his team. Spurs had signed some players that summer, but the rot had set in.

During the November international break, Levy decided to replace his greatest ever manager with Jose Mourinho.

On a basic level, it made sense. Mourinho was a ‘proven winner’. Tottenham needed to take the final step to winning. But it ignored how the performances of Mourinho’s teams had been declining. The Pochettino era was built on a style of football and management totally removed from Mourinho.

Above all, the appointment smacked of a belief that the most important thing for Spurs at this point — especially in their new stadium — was that they should be seen around the world as a big club. That became the dominant logic of the post-Pochettino years. And it cost them their identity.

Handing over recruitment to Paratici

In the summer of 2021, Spurs were searching for an identity again. And with a Pochettino reunion impossible, Levy turned to Fabio Paratici, who had been running Juventus for years.

Here was a man who could bring ‘Juventus standards’ to Spurs. Levy gave Paratici more power than he ever handed to any other football executive. And Levy stuck by him after Paratici was forced to resign in 2023 following a ban from football, keeping him on as a trusted consultant.

Paratici’s contacts book did land some good deals, such as Cristian Romero from Atalanta and Dejan Kulusevski from Juventus. But there were plenty of misses along the way, and Spurs were left with a squad with too many unreliable and inconsistent players.

With so much power given to one man for so long, Spurs lost ground to their more progressive, clear-thinking rivals.

Insisting on ‘Premier League-proven’ attacking players

You would struggle to argue that paying £55million for Tanguy Ndombele in 2019 was a good deal. But it was a bold move, signing a 22-year-old who had shone in a good league and had all of Europe following him. And it was the last time Spurs attempted anything that brave, or with that much potential upside.

From that point on, when Spurs spent big on an attacking player, they always did so from the Premier League. But would anyone say they got great value?

Richarlison cost an initial £50million from Everton and has 23 league goals in almost four years. Brennan Johnson cost £47.5m from Nottingham Forest and scored 18 in two and a half seasons, before being sold at a loss to Crystal Palace. Dominic Solanke cost £55m from Bournemouth and has 11 league goals in almost two years. Mohammed Kudus also cost £55m from West Ham and has two league goals from 19 games.

None of those players flopped but none of them been outstanding, either. The clubs targeting the European market, looking for potential stars with big upside, have benefited. Tottenham’s approach, which was meant to be low-risk, has ended up being low-reward too.

Not having a plan to replace Son or Kane

It is impossible to tell the story of the last 10 years without the fact that for so much of it, Spurs had two world-class forwards in Kane and Son Heung-min.

They were a huge part of the success under Pochettino. And Spurs got Kane through their own academy, and Son for just £20million from Bayer Leverkusen in 2015.

The Kane and Son era was never going to last forever. Kane left for Bayern Munich in 2023, Son for LAFC in Major League Soccer in 2025.

They would have needed to spend hundreds of millions to replace them directly but it never felt like there was any plan to bring through the next generation of star players, or to get ahead of their rivals in the market to identify the next big name.

The fear is that Kane and Son were the last two links in a long line, going back through Gareth Bale and Luka Modric, but that there is no one to follow them.

Changing styles every other year

The lack of a clear playing identity since Pochettino left has been painfully obvious.

Spurs have jumped from one idea to the next, but never with the commitment to see anything through. When Levy famously described ‘Tottenham DNA’ in 2021 as “free-flowing, attacking and entertaining” football, he might as well have been talking about Pochettino himself. But then, the next month, Levy and Paratici appointed Nuno Espirito Santo, which says something about the lack of clear thinking at the club over the years.

When Conte replaced Nuno, it felt like Tottenham finally had the world-class manager they wanted, but the Italian was never fully backed with the level of players he wanted to challenge for the title. Then, after he left, Spurs pivoted back in the opposite direction, going for the expansive, high-possession football of Ange Postecoglou.

Levy proudly said “we’ve got our Tottenham back” after Postecoglou arrived, but after two years, he doubled back on himself yet again, going for the over-optimised set-piece efficiency of Thomas Frank. No strategy could ever be seen through, because the strategy changed every time the manager did.

Wage restraint

It is well known how much league performance correlates with wage spending in football. And one of the stories of Spurs in recent years has been their inability to keep pace with their rivals over salaries.

Earlier this decade, Spurs paid roughly the same as Arsenal every year in salaries. But, according to UEFA’s ‘European Club Finance and Investment Landscape’ report this week, Arsenal paid €95million ($112m; £83m at current exchange rates) more on salaries last season than Spurs did (Chelsea paid €121m more, Liverpool paid €191m more and so on). Spurs’ true rivals in wage spending are not the former ‘Big Six’ but Aston Villa and Newcastle United, the two teams who have leap-frogged Spurs in the league in recent years.

Tottenham’s wage structure was traditionally held up as a strength, a route to financial stability and a way to maintain control over players. But fans now see it as a weakness, especially after it emerged last year that Spurs’ wages-to-revenue ratio was just 42 per cent. To many people, that number alone summed up their unwillingness to push the boat out on salaries.

That was a point Postecoglou made repeatedly regarding Spurs’ approach to recruitment on the ‘Stick to Football’ podcast this month.

Sacrificing the good vibes of Bilbao

When Tottenham won the Europa League last year, they had a historic opportunity. Postecoglou had delivered the club’s best moment for a generation, and the hundreds of thousands of fans turning out for the parade proved it.

If the club could have harnessed some of that positive energy, then who knows how this season might have gone? Instead, almost everything that has happened since last May has moved the club away from that day.

Postecoglou was sacked, with the club saying they needed to “compete on multiple fronts”. He was replaced by Frank, whose football and public pronouncements were the polar opposite of his predecessor, and who was no more able to balance European and domestic football than Postecoglou was.

Joao Palhinha split Tottenham Hotspur’s fanbase before he had even pulled on the shirt.

To one section of the supporters, he was an effective antidote to one of the team’s major issues. Last season, there was a hole at the heart of Tottenham’s midfield, and there was nobody with the defensive attributes or tactical nous to fill it. In their view, Spurs needed a destroyer to prevent teams from slicing through the middle of the pitch with ease, and Palhinha, regarded as one of Europe’s best tackling defensive midfielders, helped provide a solution to that problem.

To the other portion, it was yet another example of Spurs’ lack of ambition. Palhinha had been brilliant at Fulham, winning the club’s player of the season award in 2022-23, where his talent without the ball far outweighed his limitations with it. But after failing to make the grade at Bayern Munich, a team that plays expansive, attacking football, questions were raised about whether his attributes were a better fit for a bottom-half side rather than one aspiring to challenge for a European spot.

As he returns to Craven Cottage on Sunday for the first time since leaving for Bavaria in 2024, the jury is still out.

Palhinha has been far from a disaster in a Spurs shirt. He was outstanding in August’s Super Cup penalty shootout defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, and was integral, chipping in with the opening goal, in a man-of-the-match performance in his next start, a 2-0 away win against Manchester City.

Against sides where Tottenham could only expect to be competitive, Palhinha was a driving force in the midfield that lifted them to a level above City and PSG, who only came back into the game after he was substituted off. His tackling ability, energy and competitiveness are a leveller for outmatched teams.

This season, Palhinha leads the Premier League in tackles (88), despite playing by far the fewest minutes (1,599) of anyone in the top five. James Garner, who ranks second, has made seven fewer tackles in 2,423 minutes, while Elliott Anderson, in third, has made 76 across 2,416 minutes.

Using the “true tackle” metric — a more comprehensive combination of tackles attempted, challenges lost, and fouls made, detailing how frequently a player attempts to win the ball — his numbers continue to stand out. He’s made 12.4 true tackles per 1,000 opposition touches at a 64 per cent win rate, ranking third and fourth, respectively, across all 164 defensive midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues who have played more than 1,200 minutes this season.

And as he often did for Fulham, Palhinha has also steadily contributed with important goals and assists. That opener against City was his first of five in all competitions so far, with a whipped, curling effort against Wolverhampton Wanderers, and overhead kicks against Bournemouth and Doncaster proving he’s much more than a stiff who gets stuck in.

But the data also tells the other side of the story. Palhinha ranks 14th among Spurs players for pass completion at 81.6 per cent. For a player often criticised for his lack of adventure in possession, his relative underperformance (ranking 134th in the same sample) while exhibiting a relatively safe diet of short, sideways and backwards passes, highlights that the early-season concerns were not unfounded.

Even Xavi Simons, who frequently plays high-risk passes into space and between lines, completes his passes at a marginally better rate. It’s barely attributable to his increase in minutes in defence, where he plays a greater share of long passes, either. In fact, his pass completion rate across the entirety of the season, regardless of position, is only marginally lower (81.2).

But if Palhinha were without flaws, he would still be playing for Bayern. His qualities and deficiencies are evident, and have largely remained unchanged since he joined Fulham in 2021. He is a world-class tackler, possibly the best in Europe in his position, but he is below average with the ball and cannot and should not be relied upon to contribute frequently to build-up play.

These conditions are manageable. In his prime, N’Golo Kante was possibly the best ball-winner the Premier League has ever seen. He also happened to be below average among central midfielders in possession, yet remained a huge net positive for Leicester City and Chelsea in their title-winning teams. Sensibly, he was paired in midfield with someone who could distribute at a high level in line with the coach’s tactics. Kante thrived as a consequence.

Palhinha and Kante are different players, with the latter much more mobile than the Portugal international, allowing him to leave his mark in every area of the pitch. Palhinha is much more comfortable operating in the middle of the pitch, though, like in that goal against City, he can press forward higher up the pitch. As football shifts towards a high-octane, transition-oriented game, a player who can win the ball as well as anyone should always have a place in a well-oiled machine. But Spurs, quite clearly, are not that.

With Kevin Danso nearing a return to fitness, Palhinha may again be shifted back into midfield on Sunday. Igor has certainly made clear that’s where he wants to see him.

“He is a big leader, important for the dressing room,” Tudor said of Palhinha in his pre-Fulham press conference. “Not just as a player, also as a human being. He played (in defence against Arsenal), this is not his natural position. So, he did something extra for the team in this particular moment. I know that he’s best (in midfield).”

Given that Tudor has also spoken at length about his desire to be aggressive out of possession and noted his concern with “bad habits”, a character such as Palhinha, who knows how to play on the edge without tipping over, appears a perfect driver for him — even if the lack of a midfield partner to compensate for his shortcomings remains a problem.

After all, Spurs are now in a relegation fight with experience and leadership at a premium. Whether he plays as a makeshift centre-back or in his preferred midfield position, Palhinha, labelled as a bottom-half player by his earliest critics, should surely have an important role in battling to lift the club out of a relegation scrap.

A little under three months remain of another intriguing Premier League season, with at least six teams fighting for their top-flight lives. Wolverhampton Wanderers are all but gone, still needing another point to match Derby County’s unwanted record-low of 11 points from 2007-08, but there have been flickers of life from the two sides above them — Burnley and West Ham United — to suggest that they won’t be cut adrift.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a genuine relegation scrap in the Premier League, as last season’s stragglers descended with a combined total of 59 points, the lowest in the competition’s history. Opta’s projections suggest that things should be relatively straightforward this time around too, with seven of every 10 of its simulations ending with the current bottom three going down at the end of the campaign.

But stranger things have happened, and as the pressure ramps up on the likes of Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United, the script is sure to take a few unexpected twists.

Anyone can beat anyone in the Premier League, but the advantage of a ‘kind’ fixture list can’t be understated. Leeds boast the easiest run-in per Opta’s Power Rankings, with several opportunities to ease away from the relegation picture in front of their own fans.

On the flip side, West Ham face tricky trips to Liverpool and Newcastle United and host the current top two.

Will the season peter out for Wolves, Burnley and West Ham as expected? Or can any of them claw their way out?

Here, The Athletic takes a look at the tactical themes and underlying numbers that will shape the relegation fight.

Leeds

Current position: 15th

Predicted position: 15th

Sitting in 15th with a six-point buffer to the relegation zone, Leeds are, for now, the safest of the clubs listed here. And beyond this superior points tally, there are plenty of other reasons for optimism.

Compared to the turbulence below them, Daniel Farke’s side have been the poster team for calm stability. This is a team that creates at roughly the same level as it concedes, ranking 11th for non-penalty expected goal difference (denoting the quality of chances they create and concede).

Key to their strong position is that, unlike their relegation rivals, Leeds rarely concede cheap goals. No Premier League side has made fewer errors leading to goals (three) or errors leading to shots (10).

This is a team that takes few risks in build-up: only league leaders Arsenal and Everton have conceded fewer than Leeds’ 84 turnovers in their own defensive third.

They do not overcommit going forward either; having conceded just once on the break, when Mathys Tel scored for Tottenham in Leeds’ 3-1 loss at Elland Road in October.

The flip-side to this cautious on-ball approach is that their attack can look stifled, often reliant on set pieces, which account for 13 of their 37 goals this season. Despite a summer recruitment strategy predicated on height and physicality, they have been surprisingly vulnerable in defending these dead-ball situations, conceding 6.5 goals per 100 set pieces, with only Forest and Liverpool faring worse.

Still, with their current head start and robust approach, they should have more than enough to stay up, with games against four of the current bottom five to boot.

Tottenham

Current position: 16th

Predicted position: 16th

Top four in the Champions League league phase and bottom five back home; it’s been another one of those seasons for Tottenham.

A decision to appoint the more pragmatic Thomas Frank in the summer was made with the aim of eliminating those inconsistencies, restoring more balance to a side that swung from the sublime to the ridiculous under the all-out approach of Ange Postecoglou.

But, as we can see from the rolling xG chart below, Frank was not able to improve Spurs defensively, while they never really clicked when it came to consistently creating chances from open play.

Igor Tudor represents another change of tack, a manager famed for his aggressive man-marking approach. Such adventure and risk without the ball was evident throughout his first game in charge — a 4-1 home defeat by Arsenal — as his side flew out of the traps. In the sequence below, triggered by a backwards pass, five players rush forward to apply pressure before Micky van de Ven slides out of defence to intercept a pass to Bukayo Saka.

When it clicks, it can be adrenaline-pumping and smother opposition build-up at source. But Tudor’s sides can often overcommit, with one mistimed jump forward leaving spaces in behind that well-drilled teams, such as Arsenal, can eventually play their way through.

Tudor’s arrival also likely brings a permanent change in the setup with the ball, preferring a back three throughout his career. It’s a system that Frank trialled towards the end of his tenure with relative success — Dominic Solanke was able to bring Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert into the game from their No 10 positions, while wing-backs pushed on and got into dangerous attacking areas — but injuries quickly curtailed those promising signs.

Pedro Porro’s imminent return will give Spurs more thrust and creativity from wing-back, as will Destiny Udogie on the opposite side. Likewise, Mohammed Kudus, Cristian Romero and Lucas Bergvall will all be welcome additions to Tudor’s squad once they are available to play.

But results need to come quickly for Spurs — starting at Fulham on Sunday — if they are to avoid a disastrous drop.

Nottingham Forest

Current position: 17th

Predicted position: 17th

It is difficult to find a coherent pattern in Nottingham Forest’s misfortunes, given that they are now on their fourth permanent manager in the dugout this season — a Premier League record.

The switch from deep-block, counter-attacking football under Nuno Espirito Santo to open, expansive football under Ange Postecoglou — and back again under Sean Dyche — is as confusing as it sounds, with Vitor Pereira now tasked with keeping Forest at arm’s length of the dotted line directly below.

For those who require a refresher of the contrasting approaches taken by each of their three previous managers, cast your eye over the metrics below that explore Forest’s vital details. You can forgive their players for being unsure of the core tactical principles when they are changing managers so often.

Despite their loss, Pereira’s first Premier League game against Liverpool actually provided reasons to be optimistic. There was a bite and urgency in the midfield and a healthy smattering of well-worked chances, even if — much like Dyche’s final game against Wolves — they were ultimately profligate in front of goal.

Despite a fairly bloated squad — only West Ham have used more than Forest’s 31 players in the Premier League — there has actually been a degree of consistency in Forest’s line-up this season.

No side has named an unchanged starting XI more than Forest’s seven occasions, with the spine of Matz Sels, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus running through the heart of the pitch when all are fit and available.

Amidst the chaos that swirls around the club, that familiarity between team-mates is likely to be a key factor in staving off relegation. Narratives that the squad is “too good to go down” has its merit when looking through the list of players, but this is not the time for anyone in the East Midlands to rest on their laurels.

With only two league wins since Christmas, Forest need points… fast.

West Ham

Current position: 18th

Predicted position: 18th

West Ham’s season has largely been defined by fan protests about ownership, and a squad lacking depth, legs in midfield, conviction in defence and structure in attack. Struggles from set pieces at either end have been a significant factor too.

That said, Nuno’s team have turned a corner since a 2-1 defeat by his previous side, Forest, on January 6. They have picked up 11 points from their last six matches, with only Manchester United (16), Chelsea (14), Manchester City (13) and Bournemouth (12) managing more in this period.

A few traits from Nuno’s 2024-25 Forest side have shone during this spell. West Ham have defaulted to playing out wide more often, with El Hadji Malick Diouf and Crysencio Summerville on the left and Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Jarrod Bowen on the right developing exciting partnerships. They have trailed only Spurs in open-play crossing accuracy (30 per cent) in the last six matches.

In January arrival Taty Castellanos they have a target man who is proficient at meeting crosses. He has attempted 10 first-time shots and five headers across the last six matches, scoring with one in the 2-0 win over Burnley.

And across the last six matches, West Ham’s direct speed (metres the ball is progressed towards the opposition goal per second) of 1.6 and 2.7 passes per sequence of possession are close to those of 2024-25 Forest (1.7 and 2.8 respectively), who finished seventh.

As they did with Forest, who struggled at set pieces prior to his arrival, Nuno’s coaching staff have gradually improved West Ham at both ends. They have generated 3.6xG overall from set plays in the last six games after generating just 6.4xG in the first 21 league games. Having conceded 10 goals from corners in their first 17 matches, West Ham have allowed just two in the last 10. Konstantinos Mavropanos has led the defence solidly, winning 80 per cent of his aerial duels and making 10 interceptions over the last six matches.

West Ham’s immediate schedule is a concern, with games against Liverpool, Fulham, Manchester City and Aston Villa before the March international break. They then have three winnable matches against Wolves, Crystal Palace and Everton.

Burnley

Current position: 19th

Predicted position: 19th

Burnley should be rather pleased with their 2026, having taken points off Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea since the turn of the year. Sadly, that is where the optimism ends, with Scott Parker’s side given a 98 per cent likelihood of returning to the Championship, per Opta’s projections.

Just four league wins all season make that projection unsurprising, and there is little evidence to suggest that Burnley have been unlucky upon their return to the Premier League. Mapping out their expected goal difference across each league game paints a bleak landscape.

Dominant sides will display more games in the upper-left part of the graphic below — creating more chances than they concede. Average teams will have more of a mixed picture, but Burnley’s form suggests the process has been bad in both boxes.

Even compared with their closest relegation rivals — who have a healthy number of games “above the dotted line” — Burnley’s games have rarely shown them to be the side most deserving of victory.

It is not as though Parker’s side has been comprehensively dispatched in every game. There have only been three occasions where they have lost by three goals or more across 2025-26.

Their key issue has been their toothless attack. Forget goals, Burnley’s share of 31 per cent of all possessions ending in a shot is the lowest in the Premier League this season. Despite an improvement in their overall form this year, their fate has looked sealed for quite some time.

Wolves

Current position: 20th

Predicted position: 20th

Still 17 points adrift of safety, Wolves look set to end a memorable eight-season stay in the Premier League that saw them repeatedly trouble the elite and even make the Europa League quarter-finals. Among non-‘Big Six’ teams, only Brighton & Hove Albion (98) have taken more points off Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham than Wolves’ 84 since Wolves returned to the top flight for the 2018-19 season.

Wolves’ issues began much before 2025-26 as the graph below shows, having flirted with relegation last season before a brief spell of good form under Pereira and a 14th-place finish in 2023-24.

Wolves sold their two most influential players in Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, along with losing captain Nelson Semedo and Pablo Sarabia, at the end of 2024-25. A board that previously went after players closer to peak age who had thrived in other top European leagues opted instead to invest in youth and talent, which has not paid off.

There have been a few positives. Hugo Bueno has shown flashes from left-back with his two-footed crossing and excellent goal against Arsenal. Bueno and midfield duo Andre and Joao Gomes could easily attract interest from top-flight suitors, alongside 18-year-old winger Mateus Mane.

But barring a miracle, Rob Edwards’ side are down.

With less than a third of the Premier League season remaining, there is little separation at the top and at the bottom of the table, and points-per-game hint at one of the most balanced campaigns of recent times.

Fixture congestion, a crowded calendar and mid-season international tournaments have chipped away at the usual hierarchy, leaving more matches decided by fine margins and keeping more teams involved in the relegation battle for longer.

With that in mind, here are four standout fixtures this weekend and the underlying numbers that frame them.

Liverpool vs West Ham United

West Ham have scored 59 per cent of their Premier League goals in the first half (19 of 32), the highest share this season, while Liverpool sit at the other extreme with just 31 per cent of their goals before the interval (13 of 42).

Since the start of 2026, West Ham’s first‑half share has climbed to 82 per cent, and their bleak survival chances have risen with it. Since their away win over Tottenham on January 15, only five teams have taken more points than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.

The head coach has imposed sharper structure and clearer roles in possession, and January’s transfer work has reinforced that. Taty Castellanos now offers a focal point, Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville have greater freedom, and Mateus Fernandes has begun to dictate games. They produced 20 shots in their last outing, their highest total in a league match this season.

The issue is what happens once they are ahead. No team has dropped more points from winning positions than West Ham’s 20, a direct product of that strong‑start, weak‑finish pattern.

The clean sheet and lack of big chances conceded against an in‑form Bournemouth should help their confidence, but Liverpool present a different test. Arne Slot’s side are chasing a third straight win and a move into fifth, and they tend to grow into games, with a league‑high 13 goals in the 90th minute or later this season, including a 97th‑minute winner against West Ham’s relegation rivals Nottingham Forest.

West Ham have also lost 26 of their 29 Premier League away games against reigning champions. If the numbers hold, the first half should belong to Nuno’s team and the closing stages to Anfield.

Leeds United vs Manchester City

Since 2017-18, Manchester City have conceded two or more goals in only three of their 52 Premier League games against promoted sides, and two of those have come against Daniel Farke teams. Farke's Norwich City beat them 3-2 in September 2019, Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds beat them 2-1 in April 2021, and Farke’s current Leeds side pushed them all the way but lost 3-2 at the Etihad in November.

City arrive at Elland Road looking far less charitable. They have scored 11 goals in their last five league matches, 2.2 per game, since Pep Guardiola’s latest attacking shift. The new version of City trades some of their old, possession-heavy control for a more transitional model built on athleticism and moments.

They are more willing to accept end-to-end phases, defend a little deeper and attack quicker, generating more expected goals (xG) from fast breaks and counters. Direct runners stretch the pitch vertically, while Nico O'Reilly’s more central, box-to-box role links those chaotic transitions with the kind of structured possession Guardiola still values.

Leeds, though, are stronger than their league position suggests. They have only lost twice in their last 14 games, underpinned by a league-best 23.49 xGOT over that spell. The flip side is game management: they have dropped nine points from winning positions in that period, have not kept a clean sheet in their last six outings and have drawn a league-high eight games.

Elland Road under the lights should sharpen them. Leeds are unbeaten in their last 25 league or play-off matches at home kicking off after 5pm (W20 D5) since a 6-1 loss to Liverpool in April 2023, even if they have lost each of their last five Premier League meetings with City.

Leeds-born Erling Haaland scored twice on his last visit here in December 2022, and no visiting player has ever scored two or more in consecutive top-flight trips to this ground. The numbers point to goals.

Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham’s biggest question at Craven Cottage is whether a back three that keeps hurting them can cope with Raul Jimenez.

Spurs have used a three‑man defence four times this season, including Igor Tudor’s first league game in charge, the 4-1 home defeat by Arsenal. Before Tudor, Thomas Frank turned to a back three for the first time in the 4-1 loss at the Emirates, with the other two outings in that shape coming in 2-2 draws against Manchester City and Burnley.

Tudor is wedded to a rigid three-at-the-back system, but across Tottenham’s last 10 league matches using that shape, they have managed just one win (D3 L6) and none in the last six (D2 L4).

The wider picture is just as bleak. Tottenham are the only side in the division without a Premier League victory in 2026. They are winless in nine (D4, L5), and this is only the fourth time in their history they have gone through January and February without a league win. Over that period, they have also conceded more goals than anyone else, 18 since the turn of the year, the kind of form that drags teams towards relegation rather than out of it.

Fulham will fancy exploiting those nerves through Jimenez. He has scored the opening goal in 32 of the 61 league games in which he has found the net, including in four of Fulham’s last 11 games.

He scored a double at Sunderland, including the opening goal, and extended his perfect Premier League penalty record. It took the Mexico striker to eight league goals this season, joint-most at Fulham with Harry Wilson. They will be the main tests of whether Tudor’s back three can finally hold.

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Few teams look as at home in their own city as Arsenal: since the start of 2022-23 they have failed to score in only two of 44 London derbies, both against West Ham. Arsenal are also unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, winning seven and drawing three, and have won their last three home league games against them.

They also went some way to muting the familiar questions about their nerve in a title race with that thumping derby win at Spurs, a game in which Viktor Gyokeres, the Premier League’s leading scorer in 2026, produced arguably his best domestic performance in an Arsenal shirt.

He still has a point to prove. His 10 league goals include just one against a side currently in the top half, Everton, ninth at the time, and he has registered zero shots on target against all of the present top eight (City, Villa, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brentford and Bournemouth).

He will be desperate to correct that, but the burden does not rest solely on him. Against the current top eight, Arsenal have taken 10 of 24 available points, dropping 14; against the other 12 sides, they have taken 44 of 51, dropping only seven.

Chelsea arrive nursing a different kind of frustration, having dropped four points in their last two games. A red card and defensive lapses saw them squander a 2-0 lead over Leeds for an hour, then concede late to Burnley after leading for almost the entire match.

Only West Ham have dropped more points (20) from winning positions than Chelsea’s 19 this season. Arsenal will sense an opportunity to extend their lead at the top as the title race tightens around them.

Tottenham Hotspur head coach Igor Tudor will have Kevin Danso and Pedro Porro available for Sunday’s Premier League fixture against Fulham.

Porro has been unavailable since picking up a hamstring injury in last month’s 2-2 away draw against Burnley. The Spain international full-back had featured in every Premier League game under Thomas Frank, assisting two goals. Centre-back Danso has been sidelined since suffering a torn ligament in his big toe during the 2-0 Champions League win over Eintracht Frankfurt.

“Yeah, that’s right, Tudor said, having been asked if the duo are fit to return on the weekend. “No other issues, small problems for Micky (van de Ven), with his small toe, I think, but he’s okay.”

Tottenham now have three fit central strikers, with Dominic Solanke, who started on the bench for last weekend’s 4-1 defeat to Arsenal due to a throat issue, Richarlison and Randal Kolo Muani, after scoring his first league goal of the season, available for selection.

However, Tudor is still awaiting the returns of Lucas Bergvall and Mohammed Kudus. Bergvall underwent ankle surgery after the 2-0 Champions League win over Borussia Dortmund and there is no public timeline set on his return, while Tudor’s predecessor Thomas Frank suggested Kudus could return after the March international break.

Tudor added that he hopes Dejan Kulusevski, who has missed the entirety of the league season with a patella injury, will return before the end of the season, but “we don’t know”.

Tottenham are yet to win a league match in 2026, and currently sit 16th in the Premier League table, just four points above West Ham United in 18th. With 11 games remaining of the league season, Tudor described the situation as “a question of life and death”.

“There is not too much time to think about performance or style,” Tudor said. “It’s really the question that every game needs to be prepared in the way: how are we going to take these points? One way, another way? Just that needs to be the goal. Unfortunately, it’s for me very clear. I’m also not the kind of coach who doesn’t want to cure style, or how we perform, what we do. But at this moment it’s not possible to think about those things.

“In Italy they use the term, have the mentality of a small team. That’s the key always. With the handles, willing, with the wish to have always motivation like you’re playing against a bigger team. So that’s the start, and then we work a lot of that. They’re aware of everything”.

Tudor has a reputation as a “firefighter”, helping to rescue Udinese in Serie A from threat of relegation and then stabilising mid-table club Hellas Verona in Italy’s top tier. He has also worked to breathe new life into clubs higher up the table, coming in mid-season to deliver Champions League football at Juventus last term. But when asked whether this is the most difficult task Tudor has taken in his managerial career so far, he replied: “Probably yes, recognising the difficulties we have.”

This week marked the fourth anniversary of one of Antonio Conte’s less remembered outbursts as Tottenham Hotspur head coach.

On February 23, 2022, after Spurs had slumped to defeat at Burnley (their fourth loss in five league matches), a frustrated Conte questioned if he was the right man for the job, saying he was “ready to go” and encouraging his superiors to “make an assessment about me”.

Conte had only been at the club for three and a half months but already appeared to regret answering Tottenham’s call at the second time of asking.

The Italian carried on at Spurs for another 13 months before finally being put out of his misery after his much more memorable rant at Southampton in March 2023.

Conte’s evisceration of his players at St Mary’s has become a dark footnote in the club’s modern history, but as present-day Spurs sink into a full-blown relegation battle, it is not the most instructive of his various outbursts.

In taking aim at his players — describing them as “selfish” and lacking “heart” — but pulling his punches when it came to how the club was run, Conte’s 2023 tirade ended up feeling hollow.

It came across as self-serving, deflecting the blame for his part in Spurs’ underwhelming season, and self-incriminating. As head coach, Conte was responsible for motivating his supposedly feckless players.

Instead of mulling over the wisdom of Conte’s final press conference, it is much more illuminating to consider a warning he fired to Spurs a year earlier, in March 2022, not long after his frustration at Turf Moor.

As his side prepared to host Frank Lampard’s Everton, then mired in a relegation fight, Conte predicted that Spurs could soon find themselves in a similar situation.

“The level of this league is so high,” he said. “You have to pay great attention and it’s my forecast that in the future it will be worse… it will be very, very difficult and then you’ll have to pay greater attention.

“Teams that at this moment seem to be in the middle, they could slip. Everton is a good example. You look at the Everton squad, their players, and you can think it’s impossible that Everton is fighting relegation.

“They had such an important coach in Rafa Benitez, who won the Champions League and titles, and was sacked. And now they’re fighting for the relegation zone.

“Everton is a good example to understand that this league is very, very difficult and in the future, it will become much more difficult.”

Looking back now, Conte’s “forecast” is remarkably prescient.

At the time, it was widely considered “impossible” that Spurs could be dragged into a scrap at the foot of the table.

They were part of English football’s ‘Big Six’, and their dressing room was led by Hugo Lloris, a World Cup winner, and Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, two of the finest forwards in Premier League history.

Spurs also had their own “important coach” in Conte, who had won titles wherever he had been, and were still punching at the top end of the table, despite a turbulent few years.

As if to illustrate the absurdity of Conte’s claim, the day after his gloomy prediction, Spurs thrashed Everton 5-0, with Son and Kane (twice) on the scoresheet, and they finished that season in fourth.

Yet, within three years, Spurs would end a campaign in 17th, one place above the drop zone, although they were never seriously in a relegation battle last season.

This time around, it is different: Spurs are four points from safety with 11 games to play, and without a league win since December.

With no momentum, no confidence, a horrendous injury list and the teams around them seemingly scrapping harder (West Ham United in 18th have taken 11 points from their past six games, while Spurs have taken two), no one should be in any doubt about the gravity of their situation under interim head coach Igor Tudor.

Conte’s prediction that the Premier League’s overall level would increase and that complacent clubs would plummet down the table has come to pass. Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and Brentford have moved ahead of Spurs.

Perhaps Conte was catastrophising, but he sensed that for all the star quality in his squad, Spurs were built on “fragile foundations” — to borrow a phrase from his successor, Ange Postecoglou — and would inevitably “slip” if they continued to operate in the same way.

He would have been aware that Kane could soon force his way out of the club (the England captain had angled for a move to Manchester City before Conte arrived and would eventually follow him out of the club, joining Bayern Munich in August 2023) and that Son, who turned 30 that year, would eventually decline — leaving precious little quality in the squad.

In his mind, Spurs’ determination to operate with one of the top flight’s strictest wage structures would quickly catch up with them in a hyper-competitive league, where more clubs could dream of European football.

Conte believed that the muddled thinking and questionable ambition of the club’s hierarchy, then led by chairman Daniel Levy, would also be costly.

The prediction illustrates a simple point: Tottenham’s crisis has been years in the making and did not come as a surprise to those with knowledge of the club’s inner-workings.

Thomas Frank may have accelerated Spurs’ decline before he was sacked this month but he did not cause the rot. Neither did Postecoglou, nor Conte himself.

Speak to Spurs supporters and you will hear myriad suggestions about when the rot really began to set in. A common claim is the summer of 2018, when Spurs became the first Premier League club to not sign a single player since transfer windows were introduced in 2003, but a case could be made for any number of other junctures over the past decade.

The writing has long been on the wall for Spurs. Years of chronic mismanagement from the top have taken them here.

Conte was a bad fit from the start and played a small part in their decline. Criticising his employers is part of a tedious pattern that has repeated elsewhere.

But he was on the money about the club’s trajectory and is not the first Spurs manager to criticise their running, even if he was unusual for doing so while still in the job.

This month, Postecoglou said Spurs are “not a big club” because of their refusal to compete in the transfer market. Last year, Jose Mourinho suggested that Levy was more motivated by finances than titles.

In time, Frank or even Tudor may have their say on the latest chapter of a decline that has been long in the making.

Tottenham Hotspur interim head coach Igor Tudor was given a brutal introduction to life in the Premier League on Sunday. Spurs lost 4-1 to their bitter rivals Arsenal, for the second time this season, in Tudor’s first game in charge.

After an encouraging first-half performance which saw Randal Kolo Muani equalise 122 seconds after Eberechi Eze had given Arsenal the lead, Spurs struggled to keep up. Viktor Gyokeres scored in the 47th minute and, apart from a goal from Kolo Muani which was contentiously disallowed for a foul on Gabriel, Spurs never looked like mounting a serious comeback.

The same problems which plagued Thomas Frank’s eight-month reign still exist under Tudor.

In his post-match press conference, Tudor said that the teams were in “two totally different worlds” on a “psychological and physical” level. The Croatian then mentioned in an interview that his side displayed a lot of “bad habits”.

Here, The Athletic breaks down what the 47-year-old could have been referring to.

Poor communication

Frank used a back three for most of Tottenham’s games in 2026. It is a system which Tudor had success with at Juventus, Udinese and Lazio and he stuck to it on Sunday.

Bukayo Saka did not score for Arsenal but he was one of the game’s most influential players. The England international capitalised on the uncertainty between left-sided centre-back Micky van de Ven and left wing-back Djed Spence over who was supposed to be marking him. When Van de Ven followed Saka high up the pitch, he vacated a huge pocket of space. If Spence pursued Saka, Jurrien Timber had more time on the ball which is what happened in the build-up to Gyokeres’ first goal.

Saka had an opportunity to score in the first half, which came from a simple through ball from Arsenal’s full-back, Piero Hincapie. Just before Hincapie strikes the ball, you can see Spence point at Saka but he is behind Van de Ven. Spence should take control of the situation because he can see everything. Saka sneaks in between the pair and Guglielmo Vicario makes a drastic save.

The exact same failings happened on the opposite side of the pitch. Joao Palhinha jumps up from his position as the right-sided centre-back to challenge Hincapie. Gyokeres drifts into the space he left, receives the ball and drives at an isolated Radu Dragusin before whipping a shot which flies just past the post. There is no need for Palhinha to step out and overcommit.

It is remarkable that Spurs have played Arsenal twice this season and lined up with a back three on both occasions but conceded eight goals on aggregate.

Sloppiness in possession

Xavi Simons has been one of Tottenham’s best players over the last couple of months but he was anonymous against Arsenal. The Netherlands international was dispossessed seven times — the most of any player in a Premier League game this season.

There were lots of sloppy passes and he was lucky not to be punished in the first half when he gave the ball away to Leandro Trossard on the edge of the box. Simons often found himself crowded out by Arsenal’s defenders because nobody was supporting him.

This was a common theme throughout. Spurs made bad decisions on the ball or lost it cheaply due to a lack of options. Spence was given a warning sign in the 59th minute when he lost the ball to Cristhian Mosquera deep in his own half and the move led to Vicario denying Saka. Spence was surrounded by Mosquera, Saka and Eze and should have passed the ball to Van de Ven but he was put into that difficult situation by a poor pass from Palhinha. Spence found himself in a similar position and lost the ball in the build-up to Arsenal’s fourth goal.

Dragusin’s bizarre header towards Yves Bissouma that led to Eze’s second goal was another scenario where Spurs showed a lack of composure in possession.

Arguably the worst example came just before half-time. Bissouma and Spence stole the ball from Saka, found Xavi and he popped it off to Conor Gallagher. Martin Zubimendi is cutting off a return pass to Simons and no one else is prepared to help Gallagher out. A backwards pass to Pape Matar Sarr is laced with risk because of Timber’s presence. Gallagher ends up spinning in a circle before he is surrounded by Trossard, Saka and Timber. Bissouma and Spence are occupying the same space.

It is no wonder that Tudor said: “Even with the ball, a lack of confidence is very evident in the team,” after the game.

Inability to take control

Tottenham have struggled all season to find a natural rhythm to their Premier League matches. Compared to their Champions League performances, where Spurs have shown levels of control throughout the league phase, against admittedly inferior opposition, Tottenham have inexplicably wavered between turgid and chaotic. Despite the managerial change, the north London derby defeat was another example — adding to a list that includes both fixtures against Newcastle United, defeats by Bournemouth and Fulham, and a home draw against Manchester City — of a heart-in-mouth affair from the first whistle.

Granted, Arsenal are the league leaders, and not every team will be as adept at picking apart Tottenham’s defence, but there were alarming signs in the opening minutes that a lack of structure was there to be exploited. Tudor may have been pleased with the man-to-man approach, with the Croatian detailing his desire to see the team be aggressive and front-footed in his early interviews as Spurs boss, but Arsenal rotated around Spurs’ defence to great effect, with Saka’s running in behind giving David Raya an attractive option to play long.

Vicario rushing out to prevent Saka from breaking through on a one-v-one and heading the ball towards Trossard, causing a scramble in the box, signalled yet another game where Spurs seemed frazzled from the start.

In Tudor’s defence, he’s working with a severely injury-depleted side. Competing against a near-full-strength Arsenal without three-quarters of what you might expect to be his ideal starting line-up is a mountainous challenge for any coach, never mind one taking his first game in charge. Those conditions perhaps lend themselves to chaos, and there were moments in the first half, notably Kolo Muani’s goal and Gabriel’s pull on the French striker on the edge of the box, which was waved away by the referee, where Spurs’ chaotic approach in forward areas granted potential goalscoring opportunities.

Whether it was a tactical decision by Frank or not, Spurs’ willingness to throw players forward late in games has rescued results on several occasions — and it goes some way toward explaining why Cristian Romero has five goals and four assists in the league and the Champions League this term. But while “control” for Premier League clubs is perhaps more difficult to attain now than ever, Spurs must do a better job at limiting their habit of inviting chaos in matches.

Lack of tactical and emotional discipline

Few will dispute Van de Ven’s world-class ability to recover, but occasionally his electric pace cannot compensate for positioning errors or broader structural issues. On the other side, Palhinha’s tackling ability can result in unlikely turnovers, allowing for fast break opportunities — but it can also leave him out of position, with quick forwards running in behind. That’s why a habit of tactical indiscipline, which plagued the latter months of Ange Postecoglou’s tenure in the league and became more prominent from November onwards under Frank, must be ironed out by Tudor.

In the build-up to Arsenal’s first goal, Spurs had an identifiable defensive shape, with all three of the opposition’s attacking bodies in the box accounted for.

Then, when Saka beat Sarr on the right wing and approached the box to cross, Kolo Muani left Eze to drift into danger, with the ball finding the England international to score. If Tottenham are to improve defensively under the new coach, they cannot afford players to take their eye off their assignments.

There is also the wider issue of discipline as a whole, with Spurs leading the league in discipline points (75), 10 more than Brighton & Hove Albion in second. Tottenham added to their total with three yellow cards against Arsenal, slightly above their league-worst average of 2.44 per game. Tudor will no doubt be keen to ensure Spurs do not lose any more players to suspension, with Romero still serving a four-match ban having received his second red card of the season in the 2-0 defeat by Manchester United.

Failure to prevent shots from the edge of the box

Just when we thought long-distance shooting was a thing of the past, shots from outside the box have spiked this season, with a notable increase in their overperformance compared to xG.

Arsenal’s shortest away trip of the season felt, going into the game, like their biggest test so far.

Reeling after sloppy performances had seen them throw away four points at Brentford and Wolves, Arsenal were under serious pressure and faced a side hoping to benefit from football’s fabled ‘new manager bounce‘.

Part of the problem of facing a side with a new manager, of course, is that you can’t be entirely certain how they will play. But Arsenal seemed well prepared for the new approach of Tottenham Hotspur interim head coach Igor Tudor, which was largely about man-marking in midfield. In fact, Arsenal seemed more comfortable with Spurs’ approach than Spurs did themselves.

Spurs’ basic shape was a 5-3-2 without possession, which featured Xavi Simons roughly playing in a front two with Randal Kolo Muani. Sometimes, formations don’t matter too much when a side is using man-marking, because the formation is essentially dictated by the formation of the opposition.

But Spurs’ problem throughout the game was the situation below: the Arsenal full-backs, particularly right-back Jurrien Timber, had no direct opponents. Everything stemmed from this.

Here’s the first example. Arsenal are playing out from defence, and Timber is free. Djed Spence has to push forward and close him down, but he’s too late to put any pressure on Timber, who plays it on to Bukayo Saka. This then drags Micky van de Ven out from the back, opening up the entire left half of Spurs’ defence. Eberechi Eze looks to run into that space. This set the tone.

Saka had his best game in several months, largely because he was afforded so much space. Here, Arsenal again look to play out to Timber, but Spence pushes up and closes him down. So David Raya instead launches an excellent ball downfield. Saka has drawn Van de Ven wide, then runs in behind him, and Guglielmo Vicario has to sprint off his line and head clear, to prevent Saka reaching the ball first.

Here’s another example. Timber is again free as Arsenal build from the back. Spence is again simply too deep to put serious pressure on him, and is easily bypassed as Timber plays the ball to Saka. Van de Ven is now acting as a left-back, and there’s huge space between him and the other defenders. Eze again looks to run into that space, but Saka can’t quite find the angle to slip him in.

Another typical example here. This is a strange one — Spence essentially presses too wide, and Timber simply takes a touch inside and goes past him. This means Pape Matar Sarr has to jump forward and close down Timber. Again, Eze is free to run into space, and if Timber had passed right, Saka and Eze would be overloading Van de Ven, who looked uncomfortable throughout the game with how much space he had to cover.

Tottenham’s sluggish press was the main reason Viktor Gyokeres suddenly looked like a world-beater, as the same was happening on the other flank. Piero Hincapie was free for a pass from Declan Rice, Joao Palhinha had to jump forward and close him down — inevitably, too late to prevent being bypassed — and this left Gyokeres able to find space on the outside.

He looked very sharp here, but look at the amount of space he has when cutting past Radu Dragusin — there’s no other defender close to the Romanian.

Then came Arsenal’s opener. Timber is again free. Spence shuts him down, but Saka is free out wide. Van de Ven doesn’t want to venture out there, so tells Sarr to move out and close down Saka. Sarr looks reluctant, and checks over his shoulder to note the situation in his midfield position. He half-tackles Saka, but Saka emerges with the ball, and this drags Yves Bissouma over to help out. Two central midfielders are almost at left-back, leaving various Arsenal players free for a cut-back. Eventually, Eze is the player to turn the ball home and give Arsenal the lead.

Spurs seemed to change their press at points. Here, Timber receives possession and it’s Sarr who moves out from midfield to shut him down. Van de Van is now the one tracking Eze, and Spence is on Saka. This probably made more sense, although it’s worth looking at how empty the centre of the pitch is, and how much space there is to get the ball directly into Gyokeres.

A few minutes later, Spurs went back to the previous approach. Spence was consistently too far away to put pressure on Timber, and this move was so easy for Arsenal — Van de Ven was too far from Eze to prevent him poking the ball in behind for Saka, although the pass slightly spun away from him, and Sarr was able to recover.

Throughout all this, it was never entirely clear what Simons was offering without the ball — one possible solution would have been for him to shift left into a 5-4-1, and focus on nullifying his compatriot Timber.

Saka, meanwhile, was causing all sorts of problems — here’s a second direct pass from deep, this time from the eternally unmarked Hincapie. Vicario has to save.

Into the second half, and the same old problems.

Here, Timber is free. Spence moves out towards him, but simply gets bypassed and Saka gets the ball on the outside. Van de Ven goes across, but so do Sarr and Bissouma. Spurs end up with four players primarily concerned with Saka, and — just like in the reverse fixture — Eze is free on the edge. Rice nods down the cross towards him, but Kolo Muani — the centre-forward — nips in to intervene.

Then came the second goal, which felt incredibly simple. No intricate build-up needed here — it was just Timber free, and able to play the ball directly into a zone where both Eze and Gyokeres were positioned. Eze got in the way of Dragusin, and Gyokeres was free to curl the ball home.

Spurs’ problems continued throughout the second half — Eze’s next goal came when Arsenal won the ball high, and the game was over by the time Gyokeres added a late fourth.

It was clearly a hugely impressive performance from Arsenal, with the individual displays from Saka and Gyokeres particularly encouraging.

One reason for caution, however, is that no other Premier League side will afford them this much space. Spurs didn’t really understand how to play Tudor’s system. They were never going to be fluent, in his first game in charge, against the league leaders — but in their current situation, they can’t afford any more matches like this.

Tottenham Hotspur knew it was going to be difficult to beat Arsenal on Sunday. Head coach Igor Tudor had only five days to work with the squad after replacing Thomas Frank on an interim basis until the end of the season. Tudor achieved success in previous short-term roles at Lazio, Juventus and Udinese by employing a 3-4-2-1 formation, but how would he implement it at Spurs with so many key players unavailable through injury or suspension?

To make matters worse, club-record signing Dominic Solanke struggled to train during the week due to a sore throat, while league leaders Arsenal were desperate to respond after dropping points at Wolverhampton Wanderers last Wednesday.

So, with everything that has happened over the past two weeks, Spurs deserve a lot of praise for their first-half performance against Arsenal.

However, it is still embarrassing to lose 4-1 to your bitter rivals.

Many fans will find it unforgivable that it has happened twice in the same season. For Eberechi Eze to be the architect of their misery again, after he rejected a move to Spurs last summer to rejoin his boyhood club, makes it even more infuriating.

The atmosphere at the stadium has been toxic for months, but Frank’s dismissal seems to have temporarily solved that issue, which is one positive. Stadium announcer Paul Coyte gave a rousing speech before kick-off, a tifo was unveiled in the South Stand, and the crowd roared when a pre-match video described Spurs as “north London originals”.

When Micky van de Ven disrupted an Arsenal attack by smashing the ball into the stands in the opening minute, all of the fans jumped to their feet. If they were disinterested in Frank’s final game, which was a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle United less than two weeks ago, they looked and sounded reenergised. Tudor’s side have to capitalise on this connection in their remaining 11 league games.

Spurs started slowly but grew into the game. Frank repeatedly praised their resilience and ability to respond to setbacks during his reign, but that mainly happened in away matches. Spurs have only won two of their 14 fixtures at home in the league this season. They tend to wilt under the pressure, but Randal Kolo Muani equalised 122 seconds after Eze gave Arsenal a first-half lead. There is a long way to go until the squad and the fans have repaired their relationship, but on Sunday they were both fired up and brought the best out of each other.

The Athletic predicted Kolo Muani could benefit from Tudor’s arrival, as they worked together at Juventus, and he looked rejuvenated. The France international scored his first goal in what was his 19th appearance in the Premier League. Kolo Muani’s speed is his biggest asset and there were multiple occasions in the first half where Gabriel had to take extreme measures to slow him down.

Tudor refused to give a detailed answer on Kolo Muani’s disallowed goal in the second half, but at the time, he made a motion on the touchline which suggested he thought Gabriel had gone down softly. Spurs should feel aggrieved because it was a similar situation to the goal Hugo Ekitike scored for Liverpool against Tottenham in December. It happened at a crucial moment and Spurs could have capitalised on Arsenal’s nervousness around letting another lead slip.

However, what took place during the rest of the game will have made Tudor realise the scale of the challenge he faces. Viktor Gyokeres gained the upper hand in his battle with Radu Dragusin, while Eze ran through the midfield unopposed every time he received the ball.

Bukayo Saka weaved past his international team-mate Djed Spence and also Micky van de Ven. When Spence moved over to right-back towards the end of the game, he tried to dribble past multiple players and was dispossessed in the build-up to Gyokeres’ second goal.

Xavi Simons has been Tottenham’s most consistent performer over the past couple of months, but he had barely any impact along with Conor Gallagher and Pape Matar Sarr. Spurs were set up in a 5-3-2 formation out of possession, but looked vulnerable defensively throughout. Dragusin blocked a header from Gyokeres that was bouncing into the bottom corner in the third minute.

Frank never trusted Yves Bissouma and he played like he had a point to prove against Arsenal. He played with a tenacity and focus that have been missing too often throughout his time with Spurs, but he was caught out in the build-up to Arsenal’s third goal as Eze pinched the ball off his toes. Tudor said there is a “big gap in this specific moment between the two teams” and “a lack of confidence is very evident”.

“I’m very sad and very angry and everything, but in one way it is also good to understand where is our goal,” Tudor added. “What is the goal of this club. What is the goal of this team. What is the goal of this coach, these players, this staff. To become serious. Serious, not just a group of 20 players, and the medicine is you look in the mirror. Each of us look in the mirror and really try, really start to change the habits. Working hard is the only way.”

Spurs have only had a few training sessions with Tudor. He has a track record of making an immediate impact, but this was the worst possible game to start with. The north London derby will never be a free hit, but it is difficult to recall any time in the past decade when expectations were so low heading into this fixture.