We look ahead to Wednesday night’s League Cup semi-final first leg with our Tottenham vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Can Spurs take a lead up to Anfield for the second leg next month?
Tottenham vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights
Liverpool are favourites to take a lead back to Anfield, winning this first leg in 58.7% of Opta supercomputer pre-match simulations.
Liverpool (20) and Tottenham (18) have featured in the final four of the League Cup more often than anyone else.
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 19 games in the League Cup (W12 D6).
Having played out a nine-goal thriller in the Premier League only last month, many will be interested to see what happens when Tottenham host Liverpool in the semi-finals of the EFL Cup.
No other teams have appeared in the final four of this competition as often as Liverpool (20) and Tottenham (18), and now they will face off for a place in the final.
Ange Postecoglou’s men have home advantage in the first leg, with the return game at Anfield scheduled for early February. The winner will face either Arsenal or Newcastle United in the showpiece event at Wembley next month.
Both teams will be eager to recover from disappointing results at the weekend, with Spurs losing 2-1 at home to Newcastle. In fact, they have only won one of their last eight home games in all competitions, which was their 4-3 win over Manchester United in the last round of the League Cup.
Liverpool had a disappointing result against Ruben Amorim’s men on Sunday, held to a 2-2 draw at Anfield as they failed to capitalise on dropped points from Chelsea and Arsenal on Matchday 20 of the Premier League.
They should be confident of a better time on Wednesday, though, having beaten Tottenham 6-3 just two-and-a-half weeks ago.
This is Arne Slot’s first season in English football, but he will hope Liverpool’s legacy in this competition gives them a helping hand. The Reds have progressed from seven of their last nine League Cup semi-final ties and are looking to reach the final in consecutive years for the first time since a run of four between 1981 and 1984.
Interestingly, Spurs have never lost when playing the first leg of a League Cup semi-final tie (including single-game ties) at home, winning five and drawing twice. However, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 19 games in the League Cup (W12 D6), which was a 3-2 defeat at Manchester City in the 2022-23 fourth round.
Cody Gakpo has been in a tremendous run of form, and loves this competition in particular. He has been involved in nine goals in his nine League Cup appearances, scoring eight and assisting one.
As for team news, Spurs are expected to go close to as strong as possible, though continue to suffer from injury issues, especially at the back. However, Rodrigo Bentancur will be available again after suspension and Radu Dragusin will hope to have shaken off an illness that caused him to be substituted at half-time against Newcastle. Son Heung-min and James Maddison should start after only being named on the bench at the weekend, seemingly rested for this clash.
Tottenham could give a debut to new 21-year-old goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky, who they signed from Slavia Prague earlier in the week. He has received his work permit, and could replace Brandon Austin, who started against Newcastle last weekend.
Slot has used this competition to rotate so far, but will likely go stronger here, especially considering their next game is against fourth-tier Accrington Stanley in the FA Cup on Saturday, when he will probably rest most if not all of his star players. Like Dragusin, Dominik Szoboszlai will aim to recover from illness, which prevented the Hungary international from making the squad against Man Utd.
Tottenham vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Tottenham have the edge over Liverpool in their previous League Cup meetings, having progressed from four of their seven ties in the competition overall, but the Reds did win their most recent League Cup clash, securing a 2-1 victory at Anfield in the 2016- 17 fourth round.
As mentioned, Liverpool beat Tottenham 6-3 in north London in the Premier League only last month – the last English team to score 7+ goals away to Spurs in a single campaign in all competitions was Arsenal in 2010-11, while the most a team has scored at Spurs in a season is eight (Chelsea in 2001-02).
Spurs have lost their last two League Cup games against the previous winners of the competition, most recently in the 2021 final vs Manchester City. The last time they beat the holders was in the 2008 final (2-1 vs Chelsea), which was the last time they lifted a major trophy.
Tottenham vs Liverpool Prediction
The Opta supercomputer believes Liverpool will win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the second time in a month, with the Merseysiders coming out on top in 58.7% of simulations.
Spurs take a lead to Anfield in 20.1% of sims, while a draw that probably favours Liverpool more than their hosts occurred 21.1% of the time.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.