The Analyst

We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Tottenham vs Newcastle United prediction and preview. Can under-fire Ange Postecoglou find a much-needed win?

Tottenham vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights

Newcastle United came out on top most often in the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, winning 41% of the time.

Tottenham vs Newcastle is the most-played Premier League fixture never to finish 0-0.

Anthony Gordon has been directly involved in a goal in each of his last four league appearances for Newcastle (1 goal, 3 assists).

Ange Postecoglou will be desperately hoping a new year brings improved fortunes when his struggling Tottenham host Newcastle United in Saturday’s early Premier League kick-off.

Pressure continues to mount on Postecoglou after Jørgen Strand Larsen’s late leveller snatched a 2-2 draw for Wolves on Sunday. Rodrigo Bentancur and Brennan Johnson had dragged Tottenham ahead after Hwang Hee-chan’s opener, only for another familiar disappointment to follow in the 87th minute.

Johnson has been a rare positive in an erratic season for Spurs. He is their top scorer in all competitions this term with 11 goals, while the Welshman has also either scored (2) or assisted (2) a goal in each of his last four Premier League home games.

However, Johnson’s success has not translated into positive results at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Postecoglou’s side are winless in five Premier League home games, their longest such streak since an eight-match run between March and October 2008 under Juande Ramos.

Spurs last had a longer winless run at home in a single season between October 1993 and April 1994 (14), and their struggles have seen them slip down to 11th in the table – a massive 11 points adrift of the top four.

There is no good news on the injury front to ease Postecoglou’s troubles. Destiny Udogie limped off with a hamstring issue against Wolves, joining the likes of Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero and Guglielmo Vicario as absentees. Bentancur is also suspended after picking up a needless fifth yellow card of the season late on in his last outing.

Improvements are not guaranteed here either, considering Tottenham have lost their first league game in two of the last five calendar years (W2 D1), as many times as they had in the previous 16 years combined (W11 D3).

Newcastle have won their first league match in just one of the last 12 calendar years (D3 L8), winning 1-0 at Stoke City on New Year’s Day 2018. However, Eddie Howe’s side make the trip north in impressive form.

A 2-0 victory over Manchester United on Monday made it four straight top-flight victories to end 2024, lifting Newcastle to fifth in the league and just three points behind Chelsea.

Alexander Isak was again on target at Old Trafford, taking him to 25 Premier League goals in 2024 – only Alan Shearer in 2002 has scored more in a single year for the club (27). The Swedish striker’s 43 goals in the competition overall can also only be bettered by Shearer (148), Callum Wilson (47) and Peter Beardsley (46) for Newcastle.

Anthony Gordon teed up Newcastle’s second strike against United – a header from Joelinton – and has now been directly involved in a goal in each of his last four Premier League appearances (1 goal, 3 assists). He has also assisted in his last two away games against Ipswich Town and Man Utd.

Fabian Schär will be suspended for this clash after his fifth caution of the season last time out, while Sven Botman, Emil Krafth, Nick Pope, Jamaal Lascelles and Wilson remain as the other confirmed absentees for the visitors.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

This pair have amassed 189 goals between them in Premier League games, the third-highest scoring fixture in the competition’s history.

Indeed, Tottenham and Newcastle have met 59 times without ever drawing 0-0, the most in Premier League history.

It could be tough to split the pair again – Tottenham have won two of their last three home league games against Newcastle, as many as they had in their previous seven. However, Howe’s side have won four of their last five Premier League outings against Spurs (L1), previously taking 15 games to achieve that many wins.

Newcastle are also out for the double over Spurs for the second time in three seasons, having done so just once in 12 campaigns before, after Harvey Barnes and Isak scored in a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture this term.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is leaning towards an away win on Saturday, with Newcastle triumphing in 41% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Tottenham managed to end a five-game winless run on home soil in 34.5% of data-led sims, while the draw was ranked at 24.5%.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Mohamed Salah grabbed four goal involvements as Liverpool beat Tottenham in a nine-goal thriller in north London. Re-live the action with the best facts and Opta data in our Tottenham vs Liverpool stats page.

Liverpool extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to four points after beating Tottenham 6-3 on Sunday in another chaotic game for Ange Postecoglou’s side.

Luis Díaz (two), Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Salah (two) did the damage for Arne Slot’s men, while James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski and Dominic Solanke pulled goals back for Spurs.

Salah ended the game with two goals and two assists, and did his best to give Liverpool a fast start, having five shots in the first 18 minutes, including hitting the crossbar, but it was Díaz who put the visitors ahead in the 23rd minute. The Colombian headed in an inch-perfect cross from Trent Alexander-Arnold, his sixth Premier League goal of the season, and first since September.

Mac Allister made it two in the 36th minute with another header, the Argentine’s first league goal of the campaign, before Maddison halved the deficit just a few minutes later after Mac Allister was dispossessed by Kulusevski, It took the former Leicester City man to 100 Premier League goal involvements (55 goals, 45 assists) in 208 appearances.

Liverpool’s two-goal cushion was restored in first-half stoppage time though as Szoboszlai was played in by Salah on the counter-attack, before slotting through the legs of Fraser Forster.

With that assist, Salah became the first player to reach double figures for both goals and assists before Christmas in a Premier League season in the history of the competition, but he wasn’t done there.

The Egyptian added two more goals for Liverpool inside the first 16 minutes of the second half to make it 5-1, meaning not only did he go ahead of Bukayo Saka for Premier League assists this season in the game (11) but he also took the outright lead in the race for the Golden Boot (15).

In typical fashion, Tottenham kept coming at Liverpool despite their woes at the back, with Kulusevski and Solanke pulling it back to 5-3 with seven minutes remaining, but Díaz put the game to bed with his second of the game when he drilled in from Salah’s pass.

Despite recent criticism of Spurs’ resilience, this was the first time they had lost by more than a single goal this season. They head into Christmas Day in 11th place, though, while Liverpool will be top on 25 December.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Tottenham vs Liverpool stats from their Premier League meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own post-match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta facts on the game as well.

Can Ange Postecoglou get another result against the Red Devils? We look ahead to Thursday’s EFL Cup quarter-final with our Tottenham vs Man Utd prediction and preview.

Tottenham vs Man Utd Stats: The Key Insights

Tottenham are backed to overcome Manchester United in 90 minutes, winning 46.5% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

Man Utd are winless in their last four games against Spurs and were 3-0 losers to them in the Premier League this season.

Spurs have progressed from their last four quarter-final ties in the EFL Cup.

Tottenham and Manchester United head into Thursday’s EFL Cup quarter-final meeting after statement victories last weekend.

Ruben Amorim got one over fierce rivals Manchester City at the first time of asking, snatching a late 2-1 victory on Sunday. United had trailed to Josko Gvardiol’s header, before Amad Diallo won a penalty for Bruno Fernandes to score, and then scored a last-gasp winner of his own.

Both Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho were left out of the travelling squad for that derby-day win, with Amorim laying down the marker for his demands early into his tenure. He may be tempted to bring Garnacho back, however, considering his EFL Cup record.

No player has more than the United winger’s three assists in the competition this season, while he also scored another three. He is the first to manage 3+ for both goals and assists in an EFL Cup campaign since Kevin De Bruyne in 2015-16 (5 goals, 3 assists) and first to do so for United since Louis Saha in 2005-06 (6 goals, 3 assists).

Those impressive numbers from Garnacho have helped United smash 12 goals in this season’s EFL Cup, the most of any side. They hammered Barnsley 7-0 and Leicester City 5-2 in the previous rounds, and could become just the second team in history to score five or more goals in three straight matches in the competition.

Chelsea are the only previous side to achieve that feat in 2012 (6-0 vs Wolves, 5-4 vs Man Utd, 5-1 vs Leeds United), though the Red Devils’ route to the last eight has been far from conventional. The Barnsley thrashing came under Erik ten Hag before Ruud van Nistelrooy oversaw the win over Leicester, prior to joining the Foxes as their new manager.

With Amorim now in charge, a feat could be on offer. Only three Premier League teams have progressed from three consecutive rounds in a season under a different manager – Sunderland in 2013-14 (Paolo Di Canio, Kevin Ball and Gus Poyet), Southampton in 2022-23 (Ralph Hasenhüttl, Ruben Sellés and Nathan Jones) and Wolves in 2022-23 (Bruno Lage, Steve Davis and Julen Lopetegui).

Spurs also thrashed Southampton 5-0 in their last outing, with all those goals coming in the first half at St. Mary’s. James Maddison scored twice, with Son Heung-min, Dejan Kulusevski and Pape Sarr also on target for Ange Postecoglou’s side.

That somewhat eased the mounting pressure on Postecoglou, whose side had gone winless in five games across all competitions before the Southampton thumping.

The next challenge for Postecoglou will be edging Tottenham further towards silverware in the EFL Cup, in which they have progressed from each of their last four quarter-final ties. Their last such defeat came in a 2-1 loss against West Ham in the 2013-14 campaign.

Spurs have their own cup star, too, with Kulusevski matching Garnacho’s three assists in this season’s competition. He may be forced to feature here, considering Tottenham’s injury woes.

Son was removed at half-time against Southampton due to a knock and will be assessed before this clash. Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Rodrigo Bentancur, Richarlison and first-choice goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario are among the other headline absentees.

Amorim has little such concerns on the injury front. Mason Mount and Luke Shaw will be out for this fixture, while Noussair Mazraoui’s knock against Man City is still being assessed.

Tottenham vs Man Utd Head-to-Head

Tottenham will fancy their chances here given they have gone unbeaten in their last four meetings with United, drawing two and winning two in the Premier League.

Postecoglou’s side humiliated United with a 3-0 win at Old Trafford this season, though they have not won consecutive games against them since April 1990 (three in a row).

The pair have split wins evenly across six EFL Cup ties, though United have triumphed in each of their last two such meetings. Those successes came over a decade ago, however, winning the 2009 final on penalties along with a 2-0 victory in the 2009-10 quarter-final.

Tottenham vs Man Utd Prediction

The Opta supercomputer swayed towards a home victory inside 90 minutes, with Tottenham triumphing in 46.5% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

United still hold a 27% chance of winning in normal time, while the draw – and a penalty shoot-out decider – was rated at 26.5%.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Thursday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at St. Mary’s with our Southampton vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Spurs will look to bounce back from last weekend’s collapse against Chelsea and Thursday’s poor outing in Europe.

Southampton vs Tottenham: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer is backing Tottenham to pick up a much-needed victory, with Spurs winning 52.3% of pre-match simulations.

Dejan Kulusevski could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match, with his first also coming against Southampton back in February 2022. He has 21 assists in the league, with only Son Heung-min providing more for Spurs since his debut (24).

Southampton have scored in each of their last 15 Premier League games against Tottenham, their longest scoring streak against an opponent in the competition’s history.

Tottenham will look to hit back from a very disappointing week when they head to St. Mary’s on Sunday to take on struggling Southampton in the Premier League.

Last Sunday, Tottenham let a 2-0 lead slip on their way to being defeated 4-3 by Chelsea at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with much of the post-match discourse centring on under-fire manager Ange Postecoglou and his tactics.

Then on Thursday in the Europa League, Dejan Kulusevski rescued a scarcely deserved point for Spurs as they drew 1-1 with Rangers.

Their defeat against Chelsea in the Premier League leaves Spurs heading into this weekend’s game in 11th, already seven points off the top four after a run of just one win in eight outings in all competitions.

In their first 11 Premier League games this season, Tottenham faced an average of just 9.6 shots and 3.4 shots on target per game. In their last four, they’ve faced 18.8 shots and 6.8 shots on target per game.

Their defensive frailties have seen them lose 14 of their 33 Premier League games in 2024, just one fewer than they did in 42 games in 2023. They last lost 15+ league games in consecutive calendar years in 2002 (15), 2003 (20) and 2004 (15).

However, Sunday’s fixture could provide a way for Spurs to get over their poor form, taking on a side sat bottom of the league with just one win all season and already eight points adrift of safety.

Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (10 wins, three draws) since a 1-0 loss at West Brom in May 2018. Spurs have scored 42 goals in this run, netting at least three times in each of the last eight.

Southampton have won just one of their last 28 Premier League games (six draws, 21 defeats), with their 1-0 win over Everton in November their only clean sheet in their last 27 in the competition.

Tottenham captain Son Heung-min scored a late consolation against Chelsea, and this weekend pits him against one of his favourite opponents.

Son has scored more goals (10) against Southampton than he has any other Premier League team, while he has also provided the joint-most assists against the Saints (five, level with Manchester City).

Both teams’ fortunes have been hampered by lengthy injury lists, with Spurs receiving a huge blow against Chelsea as Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, only just returning to fitness, both went down in that game and will be absent for the foreseeable future.

Additionally, Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur are both suspended, while Richarlison and Guglielmo Vicario won’t play until 2025.

Southampton boss Russell Martin may be boosted by the returns of Jan Bednarek and Paul Onuachu on Sunday, though the likes of Adam Lallana and Gavin Bazunu will remain absent.

Southampton vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Southampton have lost just one of their last six home league games against Tottenham (two wins, three draws), going down 5-2 in September 2020.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have only failed to score in one of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Southampton, a 1-0 away loss in January 2020.

The last meeting between the sides was back in March 2023, when a 93rd-minute James Ward-Prowse penalty earned Southampton a 3-3 draw at St. Mary’s.

Southampton vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer strongly favours Tottenham to take the three points on Sunday, with the visitors coming out victorious in 52.3% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Southampton badly need a win, and they come out on top 25.2% of the time. A draw, meanwhile, is rated at a 22.5% probability.

The teams’ poor starts have already left their pre-season ambitions of European qualification for Tottenham and survival for Southampton hanging by a thread.

Southampton are predicted to finish bottom with just a 3.0% chance of staying up, while Spurs’ likeliest finish is seventh, reaching the top four in just 2.3% of simulations.

Southampton vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Chelsea staged a brilliant comeback in this London derby to end a miserable week for Spurs and their boss Ange Postecoglou. Look back at the match and do your own analysis of the data on our Tottenham vs Chelsea stats page.

Chelsea produced a stunning comeback to complete a miserable week for Tottenham Hotspur and their manager Ange Postecoglou. Criticised by many supporters following a meek 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth on Thursday night, this latest loss was arguably much more disappointing.

Spurs raced into a two-goal lead inside 11 minutes, with both goals coming just moments after slips by Chelsea defender Marc Cucurella.

The first occasion saw Brennan Johnson rob the Spaniard before his cross was converted by Dominic Solanke’s outstretched leg, and another mishap just six minutes later eventually led to Dejan Kulusevski’s goal from just inside the box.

Cucurella immediately ran to the sideline to change his boots after Kulusevski’s strike, but the damage had already been done. It was the earliest that Chelsea had been 2-0 down in a Premier League game since December 1996 versus Leeds United (10th minute).

Chelsea didn’t take long to half the deficit, with Jadon Sancho scoring in the 17th minute from a shot outside the box. It was the second match in a row that Sancho had scored in for the Blues, following his strike in midweek at Southampton – the first time that the forward had scored in consecutive games across his 67 Premier League appearances.

The Blues were gifted a chance to level the scores after Yves Bissouma needlessly scythed Moisés Caicedo down inside the box in the 58th minute. Cole Palmer kept up his 100% record from the penalty spot with his 11th Premier League penalty goal to make it 2-2.

Chelsea completed the turnaround with 17 minutes remaining, when captain Enzo Fernández slammed the ball into the back of the net past Fraser Forster. It was his third goal in his last four games in a Chelsea shirt, after failing to score in his 25 games before.

Palmer added a fourth goal late on, converting another penalty – this time one that he’d won himself – to make it 12 from 12 from Premier League spot-kicks and overtake Yaya Touré’s 100% record of 11/11 in the competition.

Palmer now has 50 goal involvements (33 goals, 17 assists) in 48 Premier League games for Chelsea; only Erling Haaland for Manchester City (39), Andrew Cole for Newcastle United (43), and Mohamed Salah for Liverpool (46) have ever reached 50 in fewer Premier League appearances for a club.

Spurs’ captain Son Heung-Min scored an injury-time goal to reduce the deficit back to one, but the strike proved too late to make any impact on the final result.

Chelsea have now won six of their eight games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions (D1 L1), the most wins any away side has picked up at the ground since Spurs moved there in 2019.

Following Arsenal’s failure to win earlier in the day at Fulham, it’s Chelsea that are now Liverpool’s closest rivals at the top of the Premier League. The Blues might be the youngest team in the Premier League this season, but the character shown in this comeback win suggests that they might be hard to shake off in 2024-25.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Tottenham vs Chelsea stats from their Premier League London derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Tottenham 3-4 Chelsea: Post-Match Facts

Chelsea have won eight of their last 10 away games in the Premier League (D1 L1), more than their previous 31 on the road in the league beforehand (W7 D9 L15). Indeed, the Blues now have more away points in the competition in 2024-25 than any other side (19).

Chelsea came from two goals behind to win a Premier League game for the fifth time, and the first since April 2018 against Southampton (3-2). They were the first side to come from two behind to win a London derby in the competition since Arsenal against Tottenham in February 2012 (5-2).

This was the 11th time that Tottenham lost a Premier League game after having been 2+ goals ahead – at least four more such defeats than any other side in the competition’s history. It was also the first time they did so at home in the league since September 2001 against Manchester United (3-5).

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Can Ange Postecoglou’s side get back on track?

Tottenham vs Chelsea: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea favourites to win, with the Blues taking all three points in 43.2% of simulations.

Chelsea have won four of their last five visits to Spurs in the top flight, though.

Chelsea have won 35 Premier League games and scored 116 goals against Tottenham in the competition, more than they have vs any other opponent.

A midweek round of Premier League fixtures kicked off the rush of football as we surge towards the hectic festive period. And Sunday’s clash between Tottenham and Chelsea could be an early Christmas cracker.

Chelsea are the league’s leading scorers this season (31 goals), with their 5-1 hammering of Southampton on Wednesday seeing Enzo Maresca’s side move into second place, above Arsenal on goal difference and within seven points of leaders Liverpool, who dropped points at Newcastle United. Spurs, meanwhile, have scored 28 goals, with only the Blues and Liverpool (29) managing more.

Yet for all their attacking quality, Spurs have been undone by inconsistent displays this season, and they sit in 10th heading into the weekend after Thursday’s 1-0 loss at Bournemouth.

You really don’t know what you’re going to get from Ange Postecoglou’s side at the minute. Will it be the team that rocked up and thrashed Manchester City 4-0, or the one that went down with something of a whimper at the Vitality Stadium, where the away fans made their feelings known at full-time.

The issues are, in the main, in defence. Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 22 Premier League home games (4-0 vs Everton this season), a run which started with a 4-1 loss against Chelsea last November. Indeed, since the start of November 2023, no side currently in England’s top four tiers have recorded fewer home league shutouts than Spurs.

Spurs have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League away games (W3 D1), while they haven’t won on the road when conceding first in the competition since a 5-2 win at Burnley in September 2023 (D2 L8 since), so Postecoglou will be glad to be back on home turf this time out.

That being said, they have taken just one point from their last two top-flight matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, losing to Ipswich Town and drawing 1-1 with Fulham. They were also pegged back to a 2-2 draw by Roma in the Europa League.

So, Chelsea should be full of confidence heading into this one. Enzo Maresca’s team have reeled off three straight victories in the league, and have been dominant in each of those fixtures – against Leicester City, Aston Villa and Southampton.

In all competitions, Chelsea have scored 57 goals in 22 games this season, which is already seven more than they scored in 2022-23 (50 in 50 games). Their current goals-per-game ratio of 2.6 is their best in a single season in their entire history.

Nicolas Jackson is in brilliant form. He is already on eight league goals for the season, and he has a fine record against Tottenham, too. He has scored four goals in his two Premier League games against Spurs, netting a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last season.

Yet Jackson is not their only threat. There is of course the wonderful Cole Palmer, while Enzo Fernández has seven assists in all competitions for Chelsea this season, the most of any Blues player. In fact, the Argentine has provided six assists in his last five games.

Meanwhile, only Erling Haaland (17) and Mohamed Salah (15) have scored more goals in all competitions among Premier League players this season than Chelsea’s Christopher Nkunku (12) – the Frenchman has now found the net in eight of his last nine starts, scoring 11 times.

Spurs, of course, have plenty of attacking quality of their own.

Brennan Johnson has scored three goals across his last five home appearances in the Premier League, more than across his previous 24 outings at home in the competition for Spurs and Nottingham Forest (two goals).

Dominic Solanke has not been able to get as many goals as he would have liked so far, but does lead the Premier League for pressures in the final third leading to a turnover (49). Meanwhile, Dejan Kulusevski has created 34 chances, a tally bettered by only Youri Tielemans (35), Palmer (36) and Bukayo Saka (38).

Son Heung-min is, of course, always a threat. That being said, among teams he has played 1,000+ minutes against, Son’s worst minutes-per-goal rate in the Premier League is against Chelsea, with the South Korean star netting just twice in 16 appearances (1,061 minutes) versus the Blues (531 mins per goal).

Tottenham vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

Tottenham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 L8), picking up a 2-0 home win in February 2023.

After a run of just two wins in 13 Premier League away games against Tottenham between 2006 and 2018 (D5 L6), Chelsea have now won four of their last five visits to Spurs (L1).

Chelsea have won 35 Premier League games and scored 116 Premier League goals against Tottenham, more than they have vs any other opponent. It’s also the most goals Spurs have conceded against a side, while they have only lost more times to Manchester United (39).

Spurs were unbeaten in their first four Premier League London derbies under Postecoglou (W2 D2) but have lost seven of their last 13 (W4 D2). Five of their six London derby wins under the Australian have been at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, however.

Chelsea have won five of their seven games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions (D1 L1), the most wins any visiting side has picked up at the ground since Spurs moved there in 2019.

Tottenham vs Chelsea Prediction

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Chelsea triumphed in 43.2%. Spurs, meanwhile, came out on top in 32.7% of the data-led sims, so the supercomputer is forecasting a close encounter. The probability of a draw is 24.1%.

Tottenham vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

We look ahead to Thursday’s Premier League game at the Vitality Stadium with our Bournemouth vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Can Ange Postecoglou’s visitors get back to winning ways on the south coast?

Bournemouth vs Tottenham: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer makes Tottenham favourites to win, with Spurs taking all three points in 43.8% of simulations.

Each of Tottenham’s last five away Premier League wins have been to nil, including their 4-0 victory over Manchester City last month. They have not won any of their last 14 when conceding on the road (five draws, nine defeats).

Justin Kluivert has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League appearances (five goals, one assist), becoming the first player in the competition’s history to score a hat-trick of penalties in one game when he did so against Wolves on Sunday.

The midweek round of Premier League fixtures is rounded off at the Vitality Stadium, and plenty of entertainment should be expected as Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth host Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham, with just two points separating the teams prior to kick-off.

Across 26 Premier League matches involving Tottenham or Bournemouth this season, there have been 81 goals scored. Six of those came at Molineux last week as Bournemouth downed Wolves and former head coach Gary O’Neil 4-2, including three penalties by Justin Kluivert.

Their home form has generally been strong. The Cherries have won three of their last four Premier League matches at the Vitality, though they did lose 2-1 to Brighton & Hove Albion last time out on home soil. They have not lost consecutive home league games since October 2023.

Iraola’s men pounced on several glaring defensive errors from Wolves last time out, and their high-pressing style has won them plenty of admirers since he took charge last year.

Bournemouth, as they were last season, are among the top seven pressing teams in the Premier League when measured by PPDA (passes per defensive action), allowing opponents an average of just 11.2 this campaign, after permitting 10.7 in 2023-24.

Iraola’s side rank fourth in the league for high turnovers across the opening 13 matchdays (114), but no team has tallied more shots from these situations than them (25 – level with Liverpool).

The speed and trickery of Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, David Brooks and Kluivert have been key to their approach. The latter, who netted the first hat-trick of penalties in Premier League history last time out, has been involved in six goals in his last six league appearances (five goals, one assist).

With Micky van de Van still injured for Tottenham and Cristian Romero a doubt, Bournemouth striker Evanilson should also pose a handful for the visiting defence. The former Porto man has won more fouls than any other Bournemouth player in the Premier League this season (23). At Wolves, he became the first player in Premier League history to win three penalties in a single match.

The last few days have showcased the best and worst of Tottenham, who trounced Manchester City 4-0 in their last away Premier League game but were arguably fortunate to take a point from Sunday’s 1-1 home draw with Fulham.

Brennan Johnson was on target for Spurs in that game, netting his 10th goal across all competitions this campaign. Only Erling Haaland (17), Mohamed Salah (12) and Christopher Nkunku (11) have netted more among all Premier League players.

However, they were pegged back by Tom Cairney’s strike and needed Fraser Forster to make five saves to preserve their point. Standing in for the injured Guglielmo Vicario at the age of 36 years and 259 days, Forster became the oldest player to make a Premier League appearance for Spurs since Brad Friedel (42 years, 176 days) in November 2013.

It’s fair to say Postecoglou’s men are still waiting to find consistency – Tottenham have not played out the same result in any of their last eight Premier League games, flitting between wins and defeats across seven straight matchdays before their draw with Fulham.

On the road, meanwhile, they have two wins, one draw and three defeats this campaign. Each of Spurs’ last five Premier League away wins have been to nil, including a 4-0 victory at City last time out on their travels.

Tottenham have not won any of their last 14 when conceding on the road (five draws, nine defeats), since a 2-1 triumph at Crystal Palace in October 2023.

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Tottenham have won 10 of their 14 Premier League games against Bournemouth (71%), drawing two and losing two. Of all sides they have faced at least 10 times in the competition, only against Swansea City (79%) do they have a higher win rate.

Spurs did the double over the Cherries in 2023-24, winning 3-1 on home soil last December after also succeeding 2-0 at the Vitality in August 2023, with James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski scoring.

Spurs average 2.5 goals per game in the Premier League against Bournemouth (35 goals in 14 matches), their highest rate against any side they have faced at least 10 times in the competition.

Meanwhile, they have only failed to score in one of their last 24 Premier League games played outside of London, doing so in a 4-0 loss at Newcastle United in April, so entertainment should be on the cards.

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Prediction

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Tottenham triumphed in 43.8% of scenarios to Bournemouth’s 31.1%. The remaining 25.1% of sims saw the points shared.

Following an up-and-down start to the season, Tottenham are assigned a 13.3% chance of finishing inside the top four, with fifth (23.1%) deemed their likeliest position.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, are given a 7.8% chance of cracking the top six but are expected to finish mid-table, with 11th (13.2%) their likeliest final position.

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Bournemouth‘s meeting with Spurs on Thursday night should provide great entertainment based on both sides’ playing styles. High-intensity football mixed with goals? Yes please. We’re here for the chaos potential.

Across 26 Premier League matches involving Tottenham or Bournemouth this season, there have been 81 goals scored. With an average of more than three goals per game when these sides play, entertainment is a guarantee. But some of the underlying data might offer even more insight into why this game will be a must-watch.

Thursday night’s meeting may seem like a run-of-the-mill fixture between two sides separated in the table by just two points, but the high-intensity pressing style of both clubs in 2024-25 means it is one to keep a close eye on.

Both Spurs and Bournemouth like to win the ball high up the pitch, and have done so effectively this season. This is nothing new with either side since their respective managers, Ange Postecoglou and Andoni Iraola, took over last year, and this season their pressing strategies have continued to be effective.

Heading into MD 14, Tottenham have regained possession close to the opposition goal more often than any other side in the Premier League this season. Their tally of 133 high turnovers – the number of possessions that start in open play and begin 40 metres or less from the opponent’s goal – is a league high. Their per-game average of 10.2 is just below last season (10.4), where they only trailed league-winners Manchester City (11.0).

The metric PPDA is useful when trying to gauge the pressing intensity of a team. It tells us the number of opposition passes the pressing team allow before making a defensive action to win the ball back. The lower a side’s PPDA, the more aggressively they press.

Tottenham lead the PPDA ranking in the Premier League in 2024-25, with a league-low 8.6 – that’s a shade lower than last season, when they also topped the league ranking (8.8).

Bournemouth, like last season, are among the top seven sides for this metric in the Premier League (11.2 this season, 10.7 in 2023-24).

Iraola’s side rank fourth in the league for high turnovers across the opening 13 matchdays (114), but no side has tallied more shots from these situations than them (25 – level with Liverpool).

Spurs themselves rank third in this metric both this season (21) and since the start of last season (91), while they and Bournemouth are two of only six teams in the division to have reached double figures for goals following a high turnover since the start of 2023-24 (Spurs 12, Bournemouth 10).

In short, Spurs are the most adept Premier League team at winning the ball back from opponents in the middle and attacking thirds of the pitch. Bournemouth aren’t quite as good as Spurs at doing this overall, but make the most out of these situations by turning their turnovers into shots.

Tottenham (911) have applied the most pressures to opponents in the final third in the Premier League this season, while Bournemouth are second (831). Even when they give the ball away, these two sides work hard to win it back within seconds.

Looking at counter pressures, where the team makes a pressure within two seconds of losing the ball, Spurs (801 total, 378 in final third) and Bournemouth (788 in total, 345 in final third) rank first and second coming into this matchday.

Meanwhile, only Man City (40%) have made a higher proportion of their pressures in the final third this season than Spurs (37%).

Assessing the running data for both sides, it’s again Tottenham and Bournemouth that lead the way. No teams have made more sprints than Spurs (2,326) or the Cherries (2,186) across the opening 13 matchdays of 2024-25, while only Brighton (1,457 km) separate Bournemouth (1,459 km) and Tottenham (1,453 km) in the top three positions for total distance covered.

More specifically focusing on their off-the-ball running, Spurs players have made the most intense runs to try and receive a pass or create space than any other team (2,258). Bournemouth rank third (1,973), behind only Spurs and Liverpool (1,984).

Players to Impress with the Press

Dominic Solanke was a key component in Bournemouth’s high press last season before he made the summer move to Spurs. Of course, his 19 league goals were a major factor in Tottenham spending a reported club-record £55 million fee on the English striker, but his out-of-possession work was also something that Postecoglou knew would strengthen his side in 2024-25. He’s been proved right.

Solanke ranked higher than every other player in the Premier League last season for pressures made (1,242), pressures in the final third (703) and pressures in the final third resulting in a turnover (142).

Overall, last season Spurs made more pressures in the final third (2,935) and pressures in the final third resulting in a turnover (591) than any other team in the division, while on an individual player level, only Solanke was ahead of Son Heung-min in both of those metrics (639 and 130).

So far this season, Solanke once again leads the Premier League rankings for pressures (489) and pressures in the final third (255) and those in the final third that end in a turnover of possession (60). And he has missed three of Tottenham’s 13 games through injury or illness.

Bournemouth may not have found a direct replacement for Solanke’s out-of-possession work, but they’ve become a better collective pressing unit.

Only Spurs (156) have had more final third pressures lead to a turnover of possession than Iraola’s side (139) in the Premier League so far. With four of their players managing 19+ of these in Marcus Tavernier (26), Evanilson (23), Justin Kluivert (20) and Antoine Semenyo (19), no club has as many players in the top 30 ranking for this metric as Bournemouth do (4).

Semenyo has been the biggest beneficiary of Bournemouth’s out-of-possession work, attempting 11 of their shots following a high turnover this season, which is two more than any other player in the league heading into MD 14. Evanilson has also attempted seven in these situations, which is the fourth most behind Semenyo, Ollie Watkins (9) and Matheus Cunha (9).

Expect to see plenty of overlapping runs at the Vitality Stadium on Thursday night, too. No player has made more overlaps than Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez before this midweek round of fixtures (100), while Spurs’ Destiny Udogie (87) ranks second. Dejan Kulusevski (79) ranks fifth in this metric but stands alone for players that don’t play full-back – Arsenal’s Kai Havertz (52 – 27 fewer than Kulusevski) ranks the next highest excluding those players.

Spurs got the better of Bournemouth in both Premier League meetings last season, but the Cherries have already enjoyed impressive home wins over Arsenal and Man City in 2024-25. After their victory at Wolves on Saturday, this game gives them the chance to secure back-to-back wins in the league for the first time since April.

Tottenham haven’t played out the same result in any of their last eight Premier League games, flitting between wins and defeats across seven matchdays before drawing 1-1 at home to Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

With the erratic form of both sides coupled with the high-intensity performances by Spurs and Bournemouth, Thursday night’s game should be chaotic… in a good way.

How can a team follow up a home loss to a promoted side with a 4-0 mauling of the champions? Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham are the Premier League’s most confusing team.

Tottenham have long been capable of springing a surprise. The problem is, it’s not always the type of surprise that will please their fans.

Already this season, Ange Postecoglou’s side have handed two winless sides – Crystal Palace and newly promoted Ipswich Town – their first victories of the season, and have thrown away a two-goal half-time lead to inexplicably lose 3-2 at Brighton.

They have also dropped points at another promoted side in Leicester and very nearly crashed out of the EFL Cup at the earliest possible stage to second-tier opposition. Some sections of the fanbase have grown tired of Postecoglou and are already calling for his head.

There have also been some good surprises, though. They won 3-0 at Manchester United without their captain and best attacker, Son Heung-min, thrashed an Aston Villa side who pipped them to fourth place last season, and have won the third most points from losing positions (nine) of all Premier League teams this term.

But Saturday brought the biggest shock of the lot. Spurs ran riot at Manchester City, winning 4-0 against the team who have set a record for the most consecutive top-flight titles in men’s football in England, with an unprecedented four in a row.

The list of remarkable statistics this match threw up was a long one, showing just how sensational the result was.

It was the joint-biggest loss of Pep Guardiola’s managerial career (his fourth four-goal defeat), and his biggest in a league game on home soil. The result extended the longest losing streak of his career to five games, and meant City are now on their worst run of consecutive losses since 2006, when Stuart Pearce was their manager and the club was a rather different place. They are the first reigning English top-flight champions to lose five competitive games in a row since Chelsea in March 1956.

The defeat was also City’s first in 52 home games in all competitions, meaning an end to the longest unbeaten run on home soil in the club’s history.

This was just the third time in Premier League history that a team has beaten a reigning champion by four or more goals away from home, after Man Utd 1-6 Man City in 2011 and Leicester 1-6 Tottenham in May 2017. James Maddison scored the earliest ever brace away from home against the reigning champions (20th minute).

Perhaps most telling of all, though – at least from Tottenham’s perspective – this was only the second time ever that a team has followed up a home defeat against a promoted side with an away win against the reigning champions (also Liverpool in December 2000 – 0-1 vs Ipswich and 1-0 vs Man Utd). This was the first time anyone had done so while beating the champions by more than one goal.

It was a truly incredible win. One of the most seismic in recent Premier League history. But while Tottenham should unquestionably enjoy this victory, there will understandably be frustrations at the team’s wild inconsistency. Had they beaten Ipswich rather than lost, or held on to a lead they looked totally in control of at Brighton, Tottenham would be third in the table, a point off City, and, if not actually in the title race, certainly worthy of being in the conversation.

So, are Tottenham on the verge of something great under Postecoglou? Or are they too inconsistent, and far more likely to slip up in their upcoming games against mid-table Fulham and Bournemouth?

Many of their numbers show just how good a team they can be, ranking top of the Premier League in 2024-25 in a few key metrics. They are the league’s top scorers, with 27 goals, while they are also first for non-penalty expected goals, with 24.2 xG. Their overperformance compared to their xG of 2.8 is hardly massive (and 1.5 of it came against City this weekend when they scored four goals from 2.5 xG), suggesting their impressive goalscoring rate might just be sustainable.

Spurs have also scored at least four more goals from fast breaks (nine) than any other team, and have had more shots from such situations than everyone else (25). They also lead the Premier League this season for pressures in the final third (959), pressures in the final third resulting in a turnover (158) and total regains in the final third (80).

They are in the top two or three teams in plenty of other areas, further showing how consistent they are across the board. They rank second in the Premier League in 2024-25 for possession (59.9%), shots (198), successful passes in the opposition half (2,828), touches in the opposition box (455), and field tilt (64.6%) – which measures territorial dominance by comparing a team’s share of possession in the attacking third with their opponent’s possession at the opposite end of the pitch.

Meanwhile, Spurs are currently third for shots on target (76), passing accuracy (86.3%), high turnovers (winning the ball within 40m of the opposition’s goal line) that lead to a shot (20), and successful open-play crosses (44).

There is clearly plenty to be cheery about at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. But it’s also worth remembering that in the actual league table, Tottenham were 10th before the weekend, and even after battering City, they’re still only sixth. They have only won half of their league games, and have lost almost as many (five). They have as many defeats as half of the teams currently in the bottom half of the table.

So, what exactly is going on? How can a team be bad enough to lose at home to Ipswich one week and good enough to thrash one of the greatest teams in modern football history the next (albeit at a time when they are more than a little out of sorts)?

For all of their strength in attack, the defence remains a serious problem. They only rank seventh for expected goals against (15.3 xG), while the average xG value of every shot they face is the fifth-highest in the Premier League, at 0.12 xG per shot. They don’t concede tonnes of chances, but they tend to allow their opponents at least one very good one in every single match. And that’s a real problem.

The second thing to note is how clear it is that Tottenham are struggling with their busy schedule this season. They played only 41 games in the whole of 2023-24, dumped out of both cup competitions early on and without European competition to contend with. This term, they will play at least 50 games in total and that number is likely to be nearer 60 than 50 come May.

Their three most disappointing results of the season – the losses to Brighton, Palace and Ipswich – have all come on a Sunday after a Europa League game on Thursday. Postecoglou has rotated heavily in Europe, so it can’t just be fatigue that’s an issue, but Spurs’ players might be struggling with only a couple of days to focus solely on the weekend’s game and prepare to face Premier League opposition.

Individual players are also struggling with the workload. Only seven players have been able to play a part in all 12 of the league fixtures so far this season, and only three – Guglielmo Vicario, Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro – have started all 12. They are yet to suffer a full-blown injury crisis like last season, but many of their most important players have already missed at least a couple of games.

Tottenham are absolutely desperate to end a trophy drought that will have reached 17 years by the time the next available cup final rolls around, so there are very few games in which they can afford to be off their best. The expanded Europa League means there is slightly more wiggle room in that competition, but having insisted in a recent press conference that he “always wins a trophy in his second season”, Postecoglou can’t take too many chances. As the season goes on, there’ll be fewer and fewer chances to rotate.

A few underwhelming performances have suggested he can’t mix things up too much. Spurs needed rescuing by first-teamers late on in the EFL Cup tie at Coventry, while they were far from their best in beating AZ Alkmaar 1-0 – through a Richarlison penalty – last month. The decision to play 17-year-old Mikey Moore on the wing at Selhurst Park with a few other key players absent days later didn’t exactly work out in the 1-0 loss to Palace.

But in the main, Tottenham’s squad players have done what has been asked of them, and stepped up when they’ve needed to.

Timo Werner has proved a very useful squad member, Radu Dragusin has done well since coming into the first team to replace the injured Micky van de Ven, and Ben Davies was genuinely brilliant on his first Premier League start of the season at the Etihad on Saturday. The squad is starting to prove just how deep it is.

And it is undoubtedly a positive that they aren’t too reliant on an individual for goals, which could have been a criticism of them during the Harry Kane days. Tottenham are instead sharing the load throughout the team. Their joint-top scorers only have five goals each (James Maddison and Brennan Johnson), putting them outside the league’s overall top 10, while only Brighton (11) have more different goalscorers in the top flight this season than Spurs (nine).

So, will Tottenham, now given a 0.15% chance of winning the title by the Opta supercomputer (up from zero before the weekend), build on this scarcely believable result, and go on a run that makes people ask whether they could actually compete for major honours, if not this season then next, under Postecoglou?

Or, will Spurs do the most Spursy thing possible, let their momentum dissipate away, and pass up on what appears to be a huge opportunity to establish their place in the top-four battle?

Well, this is the beauty and the madness of Tottenham Hotspur: whatever you think might happen, you should prepare to be surprised.

Tottenham stunned Man City with a 4-0 win at the Etihad Stadium, controlling the game from start to finish. Look back at the key moments from the Premier League clash with our Manchester City vs Tottenham stats page.

Manchester City suffered a demoralising 4-0 defeat at home to Tottenham Hotspur, ending their 52-game unbeaten home run across all competitions. City hadn’t lost at the Etihad since a 2-1 defeat to Brentford on 12 November 2022, but a James Maddison brace and a further strike from Pedro Porro ended that incredible run.

Maddison opened the scoring on 13 minutes, firing home from Dejan Kulusevski’s exceptional cross, before adding another seven minutes later. His second strike was even sweeter, lifting the ball over Ederson in the Man City goal after great work from Son Heung-Min.

Maddison was celebrating his 28th birthday, but fell one goal short of becoming just the third player in Premier League history to score a hat-trick on their birthday.

Back in January 2023, Spurs held a 2-0 half-time lead over City at the Etihad before eventually losing 4-2. Seven minutes into the second half, Ange Postecoglou’s side ensured that lightning didn’t strike in the same place twice.

Porro’s 52nd-minute goal came after a slick Tottenham move, with the Portuguese receiving a pass from Dominic Solanke before powering a shot past Ederson. Porro has now scored more Premier League goals than any other defender since his debut in the competition in February 2023 (8).

An injury-time goal from Brennan Johnson put the icing on the cake, and gave Guardiola the biggest thrashing in a home league game across his entire managerial career. The only other time that he’s lost a home game by four or more goals was in the UEFA Champions League back in April 2014, when Real Madrid beat his Bayern side 4-0 in Munich.

Spurs enjoyed a 3-0 win at Old Trafford against Manchester United back in September, and after this four-goal thrashing at the Etihad, they have become only the second team to beat both Man Utd and Man City away by a margin of 3+ goals in the same season since Everton in 1992-93.

For Man City, that’s now five consecutive defeats in all competitions – the worst run in Pep Guardiola’s managerial career. City last lost more consecutively between March and April 2006 under Stuart Pearce (6 in a row – the fifth game of which was also against Tottenham).

They now sit five points behind leaders Liverpool, with the Reds looking to extend that lead to eight points against Southampton on Sunday.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Manchester City vs Tottenham stats from their Premier League meeting.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Manchester City vs Tottenham: Post-Match Facts

Pep Guardiola lost a home game by four goals for just the second time in his managerial career (also 0-4 vs Real Madrid in April 2014 with Bayern) with this Manchester City’s heaviest home defeat in any competition since February 2003 (1-5 vs Arsenal at Maine Road).

Guardiola lost to Tottenham for the ninth time as a manager in all competitions, now the outright most defeats he has suffered against an opponent in his managerial career.

Man City are the first reigning English top-flight champions to lose five games in a row in all competitions since Chelsea in March 1956.

This was just the third time a team has won away against the reigning Premier League champions by 4+ goals, with Spurs responsible for two of those (also Man Utd 1-6 Man City in 2011, and Leicester 1-6 Tottenham in May 2017).