Tactical Analysis: Make your own luck
In order to win the Premier League you need to be good, but you also need to be lucky. Watch the season in review DVD of any Premier League champion and you’ll see a few games where the title charge was kept alive thanks to some lucky bounces.
The Roman philosopher Seneca is attributed with the quote “luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Those lucky moments that make or break champions don’t actually happen by chance. They happen because good teams make their own luck. They put themselves in a position to tilt the odds, and when the ball bounces the right way, they’re prepared for it and take advantage of it.
Manchester United were given a gift Saturday afternoon, an hour to play against 10 men, when Tottenham Hotspur captain Cristian Romero picked up his sixth career red card. This time for a high tackle on Casemiro.
This was the third time a United opponent has been sent off at Old Trafford this season with two different results.
Against Chelsea, United went up a man just five minutes into the match. They put themselves 2-0 up over next half hour but as the first half went on, Chelsea started settling into the game. Eventually their midfield started to overrun United’s, and before halftime Casemiro had been booked twice, leaving both teams with 10 men. United held on for a 2-1 win. Chelsea playing an extra 40 minutes and a monsoon raining down on Old Trafford for the first 20 or so minutes of the second half likely played a huge role in United hanging on that day.
Two months later, Everton were reduced to 10 men just over 13 minutes into the match. United played 75 minutes of some of the worst football you’ve ever seen. Shortly after the red card Everton took the lead and United never looked like they’d find an equalizer. Hell, United looked like they had never played against 10 men before.
When Romero walked to the dressing room, the question for United became: would this be like Chelsea or would this be like Everton?
Right away, it didn’t look like Everton. At the very least, United looked like they knew how to play against 10 men. They spread their players out. They kept the ball moving.
This is the chess match that is football. United use the full width of the pitch to try and spread Spurs out. You make quick passes to try and get the defenders moving and drag someone out of position. On the other side Spurs do everything they can to try and stay compact. They move as a team but try to avoid chasing. They try to restrict the central spaces and are willing to give you more space on the outside.
When you’re playing a man up there will always be a free man. Spurs are going to work to make sure that free man is either out on the wing or one of the center backs. If you over-focus on keeping the ball and taking the safe options until something opens up, you’ll never get anywhere. They want them to launch crosses in towards Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha. That’s a battle Spurs feel confident in winning. United want to attack the central spaces. That’s the area that the Spurs are restricting.
You need to make your own luck. In order to do that, you need to be willing to try shit even if that means losing the ball. Losing the ball is frustrating, and it certainly draws the ire of fans, but if you focus too much on not losing the ball, you’ll never get anywhere.
United came out against Spurs ready to be aggressive even if it meant losing the ball. This situation from before the red card is a great example:
United are breaking forward with Matheus Cunha running at the back line. It’s a great counter-attacking opportunity when Cunha tries to play in Bryan Mbeumo with his weaker left foot. The pass is intercepted and the attack dies.
Fans groaned from the turnover. It seems careless from Cunha. It’s a tight window but this is a pass he should be making 10 out of 10 times. The risk/reward ratio is greatly in his favor here. If the pass comes off, Mbeumo is in with a great scoring chance. When it doesn’t come off, United still have seven outfield players back, including all three midfielders and three defenders. They’re not compromised at all.
When Spurs went down to 10 men United spread out and kept the ball but still kept up that aggressiveness. Breaking down a low block is difficult. If it wasn’t, it wouldn’t be the go-to move for small teams and anyone reduced to 10 men. If luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity they would need to create that opportunity. With the aggressive mindset, it didn’t take them long.
The situation starts with Lisandro Martinez. The Argentinian has the ball with few options ahead of him as Spurs cut off all the central players. If United want to play safe, he can move it to Maguire, who can shuttle it Casemiro, and eventually over to Diogo Dalot. They’re all open but Spurs will just shift along with those passes. It won’t do anything.
Instead, Martinez plays a quick pass into the feet of Matheus Cunha. Cunha is “open,” but he’s at the center of a box of four Spurs defenders who will quickly collapse on him. Usually when this pass gets made and then the receiver passes it straight back.
Instead, Cunha catches the pass and turns with it. He wants to run at the Tottenham defenders. There isn’t much space for him to go.
Cunha’s pass is blocked by a backtracking Xavi Simmons, giving Spurs the chance to break. Rather than hanging his head over his misplaced pass, or even stopping to react to being annoyed that he misplaced the pass, Cunha follows his pass and immediately goes into win-the-ball-back mode. He gets on top of the ball carrier to try and win the ball back.
Through all this commotion, United have gotten Spurs to bunch up and break their formation. If Cunha could just nick the ball to any of his teammates, United will have a split second where they’ve finally got the ball in a dangerous position with Spurs defenders out of position.
Cunha wins the ball and suddenly Bruno Fernandes has an opening at the top of the box to get a shot off.
Mickey van de Ven’s quick thinking allows him to close down Bruno and block the shot but United end up with their first corner of the match. United have become very potent from corners this season - they’ve scored the second most goals from set pieces in the league (the most if you count throw-ins). This is exactly where United want to be.
United took a risk. They created chaos and from that chaos got an opportunity. They took that opportunity to create another opportunity.
When United lined up for the corner kick they found their leading scorer, Bryan Mbeumo, unmarked at the top of the box. Here’s a wild stat for you. Since 2010-11 Bryan Mbeumo had the fourth most goals in Europe’s top five leagues without ever scoring from a set piece (excluding direct free kicks). Did Spurs know this? Well, Thomas Frank was Mbeumo’s coach for six years. Maybe he deemed him as not too threatening? That’s a lucky break for United, but now the goal is to make sure he stays open.
To do that, United made everyone else busy. Before Bruno Fernandes begins his run-up, Harry Maguire starts tussling with his man while making a run to the back post.
Luke Shaw isn’t exactly marked either, so he moves ahead of Maguire towards the back post, forcing someone to pick him up. Once Maguire and Shaw get busy, Amad, who is standing on the other side of the circle from Mbeumo, runs further out towards the touch line forcing Xavi Simons to follow him.
Before Bruno has even kicked the ball United have cleared out the entire middle of the box and occupied the remainder of Spurs defenders to ensure Mbeumo would stay open at the top of the box.
Watch the clip back and pay attention to how much movement there is before Bruno even puts his arm up to signal everyone.
United worked to create a favorable opportunity and were prepared to take advantage of it when it presented itself. Now that they had the lead, the entire low block problem changes.
In the second half United were more than happy to just pass the ball around the back. This would be frustrating if the team was trying to break Spurs down but with a 1-0 lead that wasn’t necessary anymore.
If Spurs were going to let United have the ball then Spurs weren’t going to score. If United couldn’t break them down again United would still come away with three points.
Having said that, a one-goal lead is always risky. One mistake and suddenly things are all square. But holding the lead United were able to reassess how much risk they wanted to take. They could pass it around when they wanted, but still make ambitious passes that result in turnovers when looking for a second.
United continued to attack but without being reckless. They’d make a dangerous pass but if the next pass wasn’t on, they’d reset things.
There’s a secondary benefit to doing this. By continuing to to attack but not taking that final risk, United are forcing 10-man Spurs to continue actively defending, rather than passively moving their block from side to side. This means Spurs have to work harder off the ball, tiring them out, and leaving them with less energy in the tank to go the other way should United slip up and make a mistake. Spurs ended up with just two shots in the second half, one of which coming from a poor United pass.
Just over two months ago Manchester United failed to beat a 10 man Everton side because they were too scared to lose the ball. Their priority to keep possession paralyzed them from being able to create chances to break down Everton’s tough block.
On Saturday, United understood that losing the ball is a necessary evil in order to take the game to your opponent. They didn’t wait for Spurs to give them an opening. They forced the issue themselves, created opportunities, and were prepared to take advantage of those opportunities.
