As another season at Tottenham Hotspur drifts towards an uncertain close, questions over the future of head coach Ange Postecoglou loom large.
Down in 14th, Spurs are set for their first bottom-half finish in the Premier League since 2008 (11th), with Opta’s latest projections, following their 2-0 defeat against Fulham last time out, giving them just a 2.8 per cent chance of being in the top 10 after the final round of fixtures on May 25.
There is still a possibility that they qualify for European football despite this — as one of the eight teams left in the Europa League, they have a backdoor route to next season’s Champions League — but inconsistent results, along with a stubborn belief in a demanding tactical approach, means questions are being asked of the man in charge as his second season at the club nears an end.
As reported by The Athletic, decision-makers at Spurs have Bournemouth head coach Andoni Iraola top of their shortlist to take over as manager should they decide to part company with Postecoglou.
The 42-year-old has transformed Bournemouth since joining in June 2023 after three seasons managing Spain’s Rayo Vallecano, implementing an intense, high-press style that leaves the club on the cusp of breaking their Premier League points record for the second season in a row.
Iraola has proven his ceiling-raising capabilities across a promising managerial career, leading Spanish second-tier club Mirandes to a shock semi-final in the Copa del Rey (Spain’s equivalent of the FA Cup) before establishing underdogs Vallecano as a competitive side in La Liga. But with a philosophy centred on out-of-possession principles — looking to disrupt opposition build-up rather than specifically control games with the ball — would the transition to a bigger, wealthier and more historic club be as smooth as his consistent improvement suggests?
The underlying numbers across the past two Premier League seasons demonstrate why Iraola is at the top of Tottenham’s list of candidates to, they hope, reverse their fortunes.
The below graph tracks how each team have evolved from the previous campaign, using non-penalty expected goals (xG) to outline the quality of chances created and conceded per game. While Spurs have regressed slightly on both fronts — statistically, they have the leakiest defence outside the three promoted clubs — Iraola’s Bournemouth have continued to break new ground.
The structural issues have been clear at Spurs this season, an ambitious high defensive line left exposed amid a raft of injuries, compounded by Postecoglou’s insistence on playing a risky, physically-demanding system.
But the graphic above at least shows they continue to be a potent attacking side, only trailing four teams for non-penalty xG generated. On track to score 72 goals this season, Tottenham could become the highest-scoring bottom-half team in the 33-season Premier League era, having hit three or more in over a third of their fixtures.
It can be easy to get tangled up in philosophy at clubs such as Spurs, where the pressure from above to instil an attractive, possession-based style offers challenges. On the good days, the thrill of Postecoglou’s approach satisfies those needs, but Iraola has not faced that sort of scrutiny as a manager, and achieves his results differently.
Particularly on the ball, the graph below illustrates the direct nature of Bournemouth’s approach play, making few passes per uninterrupted possession sequence and progressing the ball towards goal quicker than most teams in the division. Tottenham are potent on the counter too, but much prefer a steadier approach when they have time to build attacks.
Under Postecoglou, they have averaged around 112 passes per game in their own defensive third, whereas Bournemouth tend to complete around 59 in theirs.
The north Londoners have struggled to define their identity since the Mauricio Pochettino era came to an end in 2019. Relations quickly deteriorated with Jose Mourinho, Antonio Conte and, even more rapidly, Nuno Espirito Santo, all managers who value out-of-possession solidity over intricate positional play. For Iraola to succeed there, the club would need the patience to embrace another coach whose teams do their best work without the ball.
Iraola is not always comfortable trying to control games when in front. Since he arrived at Bournemouth, they have the fourth-worst win percentage from games in which they have led and they have averaged just 45 per cent of the ball across their 25 Premier League victories under him.
In the 3-0 defeat of Manchester United at Old Trafford last season, they even kicked the ball straight into touch from kick-off, allowing them to set up in their high-pressing shape and catch out their opponents further up the pitch. Within 45 seconds, Iraola’s boys had won the ball back, and had a strong penalty appeal waved away (see grabs below).
Ceding the initiative like this in front of 60,000 expectant fans at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would not be a straightforward option for Iraola.
For this mooted managerial switch to work, something would need to give.
Iraola is not all about low blocks and deep defending, though. His Bournemouth side have won plenty of games with slick combination play and attacking verve, and are attractive to watch in their own frantic way.
Spurs saw that intensity first-hand in the 2-2 draw with them in north London on March 9, where the visitors took 17 shots while nicking the ball eight times in the attacking third. An electric 4-1 win at Newcastle United in January also illustrated how exciting their courageous defensive approach can be.
In this example, from just before half-time in that game, Newcastle centre-back Dan Burn is in possession but Bournemouth are pressing high. Their attacking players have locked on and gone man-for-man, but Ryan Christie is two-vs-one in the middle, charged with tracking the passing option closest to the ball.
Burn suddenly turns on the ball, and team-mate Bruno Guimaraes senses the chance to drop into space from midfield to receive the pass.
Further back, Bournemouth’s Tyler Adams is alert, seeing that his midfield partner will have to follow the pass. To remedy that, the American charges forward to pick up Sandro Tonali, to make sure his team are not overrun in midfield.
Adams’ movement means that Bournemouth are now man-to-man, leaving Guimaraes short of options with his back to goal.
Christie gets a foot in, poking the ball forward for Dango Ouattara to run onto, and he slips it through for Justin Kluivert to score.
Those drastic jumps, such as the one from Adams above, are what separate Bournemouth from the rest of the division when it comes to hunting for the ball, relying on concentration and athleticism from their midfielders to ensure that every player is followed into the press.
Since the start of last season, Christie and team-mate Lewis Cook are the two players with the most ball recoveries in the league, a testament to their energy and appetite for the ball.
Unlike traditional zonal systems — where players are tasked with keeping a specific defensive shape — or a more straightforward man-to-man approach, Iraola demands that his players make decisions and take risks in the press. It can take time for them to adapt to such a style, as shown by Bournemouth going nine games without a win at the start of his reign.
When things click, however, the value of the approach becomes obvious. No team in the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A or La Liga have won the ball more often than Bournemouth in the final third, with 46 of those recoveries — also the most — ending in a shot.
Postecoglou signed striker Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth last summer after a stellar season under Iraola, while Tottenham have scored 10 goals from counter-attacks this season (only Liverpool, with 13, have more in the Premier League, according to WhoScored), showing they already have players who can attack into space at speed.
Playing reactively rather than proactively might not be some people’s idea of ‘the Tottenham way‘, but it would certainly be intriguing to see what a more celebrated front line could do with the opportunities such turnovers provide.
Iraola is not the only Premier League manager Spurs might be monitoring, with Thomas Frank also on their shortlist. His Brentford team are three points behind Bournemouth in 11th place, having come from a goal behind to beat them 2-1 on March 15.
Frank is notably more pragmatic than both Iraola and Postecoglou, having developed Brentford’s style over their four years in the top flight. They reverted to a more direct style that day away to Bournemouth, going long from goal kicks, winning second balls and maximising set pieces, but they have generally looked to build up with more control throughout the season, with goalkeeper Mark Flekken much more involved in passing moves from the back.
Tottenham are also interested in Marco Silva, who is open to new challenges after four successful years managing Fulham.
Guiding them into the Premier League with an impressive 106 goals scored in the 2021-22 Championship, Silva has also shown his tactical nous in consolidating the west Londoners’ top-flight status in the seasons since, and they currently sit three points off fifth-placed champions Manchester City with nine games to go.
He has not been afraid to tinker with shape, notably switching to a back five as his side won at Chelsea in the league for the first time since 1979 in December, while building a competitive squad with two or three high-quality alternatives for most positions.
Tottenham’s top targets, should they move on from Postecoglou, may all have the Premier League experience the Australian lacked upon his arrival in north London, but all three have also thrived at their clubs thanks to wholehearted backing from their board. Iraola has overseen 17 permanent transfers in his two seasons at Bournemouth, with many, from Milos Kerkez to Evanilson, checking boxes on the physicality, fitness, and out-of-possession appetite needed to fit the manager’s system.
These coaches can scale their transformative tactics to a bigger side, but it would require patience, stability and compromise — things that Spurs have not always provided.
(Top photos: Robin Jones/Getty Images)