Manchester United and Tottenham Premier League relegation fears assessed after latest defeats to Newcastle and Wolverhampton Wanderers

Updated 14/04/2025 at 16:40 GMT+1

Manchester United and Tottenham's Premier League campaigns both suffered more misery with defeats to Newcastle and Wolves, respectively, leaving them firmly in the bottom half of the table. But was there ever a fear that two of the league's giants could actually be dragged into a relegation battle? TNT Sports crunches the numbers as the season draws to a close.

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It’s official. This is the worst Manchester United team since the inception of the Premier League.

A 4-1 hammering at the hands of high-flying Newcastle has confirmed that The Red Devils will finish with their lowest points total in the current iteration of England’s top division.

Ruben Amorim’s side sit in 14th place on 38 points, meaning that even if they were to win all of their remaining six matches, they would finish on 56, two shy of the 58 they collected in the 2021/22 campaign.

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Things are similarly bleak for traditional ‘big six’ brethren Tottenham Hotspur, who are currently a point and one place behind United following a 4-2 humbling at the hands of Wolves.

For two teams who are used to competing at the top of the table, they find themselves in unfamiliar territory in the bottom half and looking over their shoulders.

Amorim himself even acknowledged the dreaded ‘R-word’ earlier in the campaign, and there has been an open debate around Ange Postecoglou and the job he is doing at Spurs.

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However, with Southampton already condemned to a swift return to the Championship and Ipswich and Leicester effectively requiring miracles, the red half of Manchester and the Lilywhite half of north London can breathe easy for the remainder of the campaign.

Bizarrely, one of the two could still end the season with a trophy and qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League, given they are still in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League ahead of second leg ties against Lyon and Eintracht Frankfurt - both matches can be seen live on TNT Sports and discovery+.

Nevertheless, neither side will look back on this season in the league with too much fondness. Current projections have both with a one in four chance of finishing in their current 14th and 15th places in the league.

Premier Legaue final table prediction 14 April -

Image credit: Opta

According to Opta, United’s points per game is 1.19 this season, which would give them a season total of 45, while Tottenham’s points per game is 1.16 this season, giving them a season total of 44.

Both totals would be more than enough to keep them up this season, however, Spurs’ average would have potentially taken them down back in the 1994/95 season.

That year, Crystal Palace picked up 49 points in a season where teams played 42 games rather than the current 38, and their PPG was 1.17.

Spurs would have also finished on 49 points with their current PPG, while United would have finished on 50.

Another quirk of that campaign was the fact that the league was in the process of trimming down from 22 to 20 teams, meaning Palace went down as part of a bottom four rather than three, something both United and Spurs can be thankful is not the case this year.

TeamGamesPoints (Points Per Game)Crystal Palace (1992/93)4249 (1.17)Crystal Palace (1994/95)4245 (1.07)Middlesbrough (1992/93)4244 (1.05)Norwich City (1994/95)4243 (1.02)Sheffield United (1993/94)4242 (1)Middlesbrough (1996/97)3842 (1.11)*West Ham United (2002/03)3842 (1.11)Nottingham Forest (1992/93)4240 (0.95)Oldham Athletic (1993/94)4240 (0.95)Sunderland (1996/97)3840 (1.05)Bolton Wanderers (1997/98)3840 (1.05)

*Middlesbrough finished on 39 points and were relegated after being deducted three points

The performances of the bottom three are also a factor, with Southampton (0.31ppg), Leicester (0.56), and Ipswich (0.66) not putting up much of a fight in the relegation battle so far this campaign.

United have won five of their six matches against the trio, with their only dropped points coming in Amorim's first game - a 1-1 draw at Portman Road in the winter.

Without these results, United’s PPG actually drops to 0.85 and expanded over 38 games, just 33 points (or 38 points in a 42-game season). Only Nottingham Forest, with 32 points last season, have survived with a lower total.

Lowest Premier League points tallies for teams finishing outside the relegation zone

TeamPtsFinal PositionWest Bromwich Albion (2004/05)3417Hull City (2008/09)3517West Ham United (2009/10)3517Aston Villa (2019/20)3517Bradford City (1999/00)3617Fulham (2007/08)3617West Bromwich Albion (2013/14)3617Southampton (2017/18)3617Brighton and Hove Albion (2018/19)3617Everton (2022/23)3617Nottingham Forest (2023/24)36*17

*Forest finished on 32 points following a four-point deduction

Spurs’ record against the bottom three has been noticeably worse, with defeats against Leicester and Ipswich among those contributing to their lowly position.

However, removing their results against these teams, Postecoglou’s side have a PPG of 1.04, taking them to 39 points over a season or - 44 in a 42-game season – which would have relegated them in nine seasons since 1992/93.

Premier League teams relegated with 39 points or more

TeamGamesPtsFinal PositionCrystal Palace (1992/93)424920Crystal Palace (1994/95)424519Middlesbrough (1992/93)424421Norwich City (1994/95)424320Sheffield United (1993/94)424220Middlesbrough (1996/97)3842*19West Ham United (2002/03)384218Nottingham Forest (1992/93)424022Oldham Athletic (1993/94)424021Sunderland (1996/97)384018Bolton Wanderers (1997/98)384018Birmingham City (2010/11)383918Blackpool (2010/11)383919

*Middlesbrough finished on 39 points and were relegated after being deducted three points

"If you look at our position in the table, it says it all," lamented Amorim after the Newcastle loss.

Neither United nor Spurs will want to find themselves in such discussions going forward, so the numbers up until this point ought to serve as a huge wake-up call for both clubs as the season draws to a close.

All stats from Opta.

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