The Analyst

Can Ange Postecoglou’s men follow up last week’s impressive win at Old Trafford with another away victory? We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Tottenham prediction and preview.

Brighton vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer gives the edge to Tottenham in this one, with the London club winning 41.2% of its simulations.

Since the start of last season, no team has drawn more home Premier League games than Brighton (eight).

Tottenham have had the most shots on target of any team in the Premier League this season (45). In fact, it’s the most shots on target Spurs have had in their opening six games of a campaign on record (since 2003-04).

As recently as a week ago, Brighton and Hove Albion were in high spirits, while Tottenham were hoping to get their season back on track.

The Seagulls losing their unbeaten league status at Chelsea followed by Spurs comprehensively beating Manchester United at Old Trafford has somewhat turned those respective moods around.

The two will meet at the Amex Stadium on Sunday in what feels like another potentially big game for both as they look to point their Premier League campaigns in the right direction.

Brighton were taken apart by Cole Palmer in their 4-2 loss at Chelsea last time out, but they have drawn their last two home Premier League matches. They last drew three in a row in November 2023. In fact, since the start of last season, no team has drawn more home games than Brighton (eight).

Following their disappointing back-to-back defeats to Newcastle United and rivals Arsenal last month, Tottenham have won their last two Premier League games, last winning three in a row in December last year. Spurs have recorded three goals in each victory (3-1 vs Brentford, 3-0 vs Man Utd), and should they score at least three in another win on Sunday, it will be the first time they have done so for three games running since April 2022.

Brighton will need to improve their record in the month of October, having won just one out of 16 October games since 2020 (D9 L6), which was a 4-1 win over Chelsea in 2022. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have started this season well, though, and have had 61.5% possession in the Premier League, Brighton’s highest average in a single campaign in the competition.

Young midfielder Carlos Baleba will be looking to follow up his impressive performance at Stamford Bridge. Having not produced a single goal involvement in any of his first 31 Premier League appearances, Baleba scored and assisted against Chelsea, making him the youngest Cameroonian to do so in a Premier League match (20 years, 269 days).

As for Tottenham, they have been getting forward with intent this season. Only Manchester City (115) have had more shots in the Premier League than Spurs (110), while they have had the most shots on target of any team (45). In fact, it’s the most shots on target Spurs have had in their opening six games of a season on record (since 2003-04).

One of the main reasons for that output has been Dejan Kulusevski, who continued his fine form at Old Trafford last week. He created nine chances in the win over Manchester United, the joint most by a Spurs player in a Premier League game on record (since 2003-04). The only other player to do so was Christian Eriksen, who managed it twice, in 2013 vs Newcastle and 2016 vs Crystal Palace.

Spurs made it five wins in a row in all competitions on Thursday with a 2-1 win at Ferencvárosi TC in the league phase of the Europa League, with goals from Pape Sarr and in-form Brennan Johnson, the latter having scored in all five of those victories.

Dominic Solanke didn’t find the net in Hungary, only coming on as a substitute in the 81st minute, but he will be looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since December 2023.

The former Bournemouth striker is celebrating a recall to the England squad for the upcoming UEFA Nations League matches against Greece and Finland, and that decision from interim Three Lions manager Lee Carsley appears to be justified. Since the start of last season, the only Englishmen with more Premier League goals than Solanke (21) are Palmer (28) and Ollie Watkins (23).

As for team news, Brighton will again be without injured trio Jan Paul van Hecke, João Pedro and Matt O’Riley, while checks will be made on Joël Veltman, Simon Adingra and James Milner, who all missed the defeat at Chelsea. However, Hürzeler did confirm on Friday that long-term absentees Brajan Gruda and Solly March are back in training and could potentially feature on Sunday.

Richarlison and Wilson Odobert remain out for Spurs, while Ange Postecoglou said on Friday that captain Son Heung-min, who was absent for last week’s win at Man Utd with a thigh issue, is “unlikely” to be involved. The Australian was more optimistic about Destiny Udogie being ready, though, after he came off at half-time at Old Trafford with muscle tightness.

Brighton vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Having lost consecutive Premier League home games against Tottenham without scoring in 2021-22 and 2022-23, Brighton won this exact fixture 4-2 last season.

Only one of the 14 Premier League meetings between Brighton and Tottenham has finished as a draw (1-1 in April 2018), with Spurs winning nine to the Seagulls’ four.

Their last meeting was at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in February, which Spurs won 2-1 thanks to a 96th-minute winner from Johnson.

Brighton vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Tottenham the edge in this one, with Postecoglou’s men winning 41.2% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Brighton came out on top 34.2% of the time, meaning almost a quarter of sims (24.6%) ended level.

As for season-long simulations, the supercomputer is currently of the impression that Spurs are likeliest to finish fifth (22.1%), while Brighton finish ninth most often (14.7%).

Brighton vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Back-to-back wins against Qarabag and Ferencvárosi TC, coupled with poor results from other pre-tournament favourites, have seen Tottenham move to pole position in the Opta supercomputer’s projections to win the UEFA Europa League.

Tottenham Hotspur are now favourites to win the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League with the Opta supercomputer following the conclusion of Matchday 2.

With two wins from two against Qarabag and Ferencvárosi TC, Spurs are one of just five teams to still have a 100% record in the competition after the opening two matchdays, alongside Lazio, Lyon, FCSB and RSC Anderlecht.

When simulating the Europa League 10,000 times ahead of MD 1, Ange Postecoglou’s side won the competition in 8.6% of the simulations. That has now risen to 15.1%, above Serie A club Lazio (13.6%) and FC Porto (11.5%).

Lazio only won the Europa League in 6.1% of pre-season simulations by the supercomputer, but that has now increased to 13.6% following consecutive wins across the opening two matchdays against Dynamo Kyiv and Nice, tallying a competition-high seven goals.

Porto were the favourites ahead of MD 1, but a surprise away defeat to Bodø/Glimt in their opening game and a dramatic draw at home to Manchester United on MD 2 – a game in which they recovered from 2-0 down to lead 3-2 until a stoppage-time equaliser via Harry Maguire – have seen the Portuguese side drop to third favourites in the Opta supercomputer projections. They now have an 11.5% chance of winning the competition compared to 17.8% before a ball was kicked in 2024-25.

Spurs win the league phase of the competition in 24.7% of the latest Opta supercomputer simulations and secure a top-eight finish 80.5% of the time – both the highest of any club.

Lazio follow the Premier League side with respect to chances of finishing top in the league phase (20.4%), while Lyon – who have enjoyed wins over Olympiakos and Rangers in their two matches – are the only other side with more than a 10% likelihood of winning the league phase (11.7%).

Manchester United were only deemed to be sixth favourites before the competition began, lifting the trophy in 7.1% of the sims; after back-to-back draws with Twente and Porto, that’s dropped even further to 4.9%. The supercomputer now considers there to be as many as seven clubs likelier to go all the way, which is a pretty damning indictment of where the club now find themselves.

At the other end of the spectrum, it’s been a dreadful start to the 2024-25 Europa League for Turkish club Besiktas.

Following a 4-0 thrashing at Ajax and a 3-1 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt, and with a trip to high-flying Lyon to come next, they are projected to be eliminated at the league phase in 82.2% of the latest projections. Only Latvian side Rigas FS (84.6%) have a higher chance of elimination at this stage than they do.

With four goals in four games, Brennan Johnson has played a key role in turning Tottenham‘s season around. Here, we look at his recent upturn in form.

“One Brennan Johnson, there’s only one Brennan Johnson…”

If anyone needed a reminder of how quickly things can change in football, they need look no further than the recent fortunes of Brennan Johnson.

Just two weeks ago, the Tottenham Hotspur forward had been targeted so much on social media that he decided to deactivate his Instagram account. Much of the abuse he received had come from his own team’s fans in the wake of Spurs’ 1-0 defeat in the north London derby.

A £50 million lightning rod for criticism, Johnson’s Spurs career hasn’t been the smoothest. Despite plenty of positives, not least his 10 assists in the Premier League last season – a tally only two players topped – many fans choose to focus on his near-misses and weaknesses. After a slow start to 2024-25, the abuse – understandably – got too much for him.

Since switching off social media, however, Johnson has scored in four games in a row – including in back-to-back Premier League games for the first time in his career – starting with the winner against Coventry City in the EFL Cup and ending with the first against Manchester United on Sunday. Spurs have won all four of those games, and the outlook of their season now looks rather better than it did after the Arsenal loss.

Those social media trolls don’t have much to say all of a sudden. Johnson has completely turned his season on its head, and he has played a key role in putting his side on track for a successful campaign.

With 87 minutes gone at Coventry, Spurs were 1-0 down and staring at early elimination from a competition the fans will be desperate to win after a terrible performance at second-tier opposition.

After an equaliser from Djed Spence, Johnson provided the winner with an ice-cool finish having raced on to Rodrigo Bentancur’s pass. Spurs had escaped the kind of embarrassment that would have taken a long time to recover from, and they were – crucially – in the draw for the next round.

Johnson was supposed to have a rest for that game but was forced on as an 18th-minute substitute for the injured Wilson Odobert. And just days later, he started against Brentford, and – again – he scored the goal that put Spurs ahead after they’d gone 1-0 down, only this time inside 60 seconds.

Then, shortly after Radu Dragusin’s seventh-minute red card in the Europa League against Qarabag, Johnson’s assured finish gave Tottenham a lead that they wouldn’t surrender en route to a 3-0 win.

And on Sunday, Johnson netted the only goal Spurs scored while United still had 11 men on the pitch, tapping home after Micky van de Ven’s incredible run and assist. He couldn’t really have done less to create that chance, with Van de Ven running 56.1m metres with the ball before laying on a tap-in for Johnson, but the Welsh forward was in the right place to score from close range. Once again, as the opener, it was the goal that separated the sides, meaning all of Johnson’s four goals in four games have been the ‘winner’; the goal that put Spurs into a lead they would not give up.

It means Johnson, within the space of eight games in all competitions at the start of 2024-25, is already just one goal off matching his total in 34 games last season (five).

He is Tottenham’s top scorer this term, and given the importance of all four of his goals in recent weeks, appears to be – on current form at least – their go-to guy.

He is unorthodox as a winger in the modern game in that he plays on his natural side; that is, he is a right-footer playing on the right flank. Among the Premier League’s best sides, there are very few other examples; Pedro Neto at Chelsea and Alejandro Garnacho at Manchester United are the most prominent examples but they both sometimes play on the opposite flank. Jacob Murphy and Adama Traoré play on the right for Newcastle and Fulham, while Mohammed Kudus plays on the left for West Ham, but higher up the league, at each of last season’s top four – Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa – the wide forwards all play inverted.

He can use his left foot, but he is very one-footed, particularly when it comes to finishing; he just isn’t a threat cutting inside on to his left and lining up a shot. Since signing for Spurs, just eight (12%) of his 65 non-headed Premier League shots for the club have been with his left foot. His touch map for 2024-25 so far shows just how little he comes infield.

He only has one left-footed goal in 42 appearances for Spurs – a tap-in against Wolves last season – and scored just three times with his left in 109 appearances for Nottingham Forest. It means that when he runs at an opponent, there tends to be only one direction he’ll go and, as a result, only one option for the defender to think about. That’s been part of what led to some of the frustration among Spurs fans.

Having just one trick isn’t necessarily a problem. Arjen Robben is everyone’s favourite example of a player against whom every defender knew what was coming (cutting inside on to his left foot and shooting) and was nonetheless powerless to stop him.

But in the early part of this season, Johnson was shifting the ball down the line too slowly when trying to work a shooting opportunity, and was struggling to get clear sights of goal as a result. There were also fewer of the quick bursts down the line and low balls across the face of goal for a striker to finish – the kind of goal that has become a staple of this Spurs team under Ange Postecoglou. No Spurs player got more Premier League assists last season for a single teammate than Johnson did for both Son Heung-min and Richarlison (three each), with most of those first-time finishes from a low cross.

But with no assists to his name this season (sorry, his ball to Dejan Kulusevski at Old Trafford on Sunday doesn’t count due to the massive deflection), he needed an improvement in front of goal. And after a slow start, he has delivered.

His four goals in 2024-25 have come from 3.0 xG, an overperformance in front of goal that is a million miles from last season. In 2023-24, he scored five goals for Spurs from 11.0 xG. In Premier League games only last season, his five goals came from 10.6 xG, an underperformance compared to his xG of -5.6, the second-worst such rate in the entire division behind Dominic Calvert-Lewin (-5.9).

His record suggested either a lack of quality when it came to putting the ball in the net or a lack of confidence. Postecoglou suggested it was the latter when addressing the online abuse Johnson was subjected to last month.

“You’re talking about a young guy who is probably lacking a bit of confidence at the moment,” the Tottenham manager said. “Things haven’t gone his way.

“But he comes here every day, he’s working his backside off, he’s asking for feedback, he’s doing everything right, he’s trying so hard to become the player he wants to be. It’s hurting him a lot.

“It’s not like he’s out on the town and he doesn’t care and he rolls up late. So what’s his crime? His crime is he isn’t performing at the level that people expect of him.”

We’re now only a short time on from those comments, and Johnson has proved Postecoglou right: there is no issue with his finishing ability. He is also showing with his smart movement to get in behind that there is more to his game than shifting the ball out of his feet and getting a shot off, although in the last few weeks he has shown just how good he is at doing that. He has also shown a useful knack for shooting smartly through his direct opponent’s legs and towards the far corner of the net, which he did for his goal against Qarabag and when he so nearly doubled Spurs’ lead at United, only to hit the post.

Johnson has also played an important role in helping his side implement their hugely effective press. Spurs have more high turnovers (winning the ball within 40m of the opposition’s goalline) than any other team in the Premier League this season (82 – at least 15 more than any other team), and also lead the way (alongside Bournemouth) for the number of those turnovers that have led to shots, with 15 each. Fairly disappointing, however, is the fact that only one of their 92 high turnovers has led to a goal.

That stat exemplifies Spurs’ biggest problem this season: finding the net and, in turn, putting games to bed. They should have got more from both the Leicester draw and the Newcastle defeat but were made to pay for failing to finish off their many chances. Johnson was as guilty as anyone in those early games.

But in the space of four matches, Spurs have scored 11 goals and have found their goalscoring touch. Even if the opposition hasn’t been the strongest, the circumstances have made this run hugely impressive.

First, there was the late show at Coventry; then they recovered from an early set-back to come from behind and beat a good Brentford side convincingly; they won a European tie despite playing most of the game with 10 men; and on Sunday, they won without their captain and talisman at Old Trafford, which is always a tough place to go (yes, really). Johnson has been integral to every win.

In the space of these four wins, he has hit a hot streak which hasn’t just silenced his doubters, it’s got them singing his name.

The Opta supercomputer considers Tottenham big favourites for their UEFA Europa League opener. Can they live up to expectations? Look ahead with our Tottenham vs Qarabag prediction and preview.

Tottenham vs Qarabag Stats: The Key Insights

Tottenham Hotspur opened their Europa League campaign with a win in 64.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.

Qarabag have lost all six of their previous competitive meetings with English clubs.

Spurs are the fourth favourites to win this competition, going all the way in 8.6% of the season sims.

Tottenham will be expected to get their 2024-25 UEFA Europa League campaign off to a strong start at home to Azerbaijani champions Qarabag on Thursday.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have endured somewhat underwhelming start to the season domestically, dropping points against Leicester City, Newcastle and Arsenal, losing to the latter two.

But Thursday’s game – mercifully at home rather than requiring a trip to Azerbaijan – offers them the opportunity to make it three wins in a row across all competitions, having beaten Coventry City in the EFL Cup before recording a 3-1 victory over Brentford in the Premier League on Saturday.

While the standard of the opposition in that run, with respect to Coventry and Qarabag, might not be the highest, Spurs haven’t strung three successive wins together since last December.

Building additional confidence would be a welcome consequence considering Spurs have a tricky run of fixtures on the horizon in three consecutive away games after Thursday, starting with a trip to Manchester United on Sunday. In the seven days after that, they are also at Ferencváros and Brighton before the October international break.

Spurs actually fell behind to Brentford last time out but rallied to win 3-1, seemingly responding well to the Bees’ early flurry. Record signing Dominic Solanke got off the mark in that game, while Brennan Johnson and James Maddison – both of whom have come in for criticism lately – were on the scoresheet too.

Whether those three will be involved from the start on Thursday is unclear, but Postecoglou is likely to make some alterations; after all, Spurs are massive favourites for this encounter and therefore should be able to rotate their squad without much jeopardy in theory.

In fact, Spurs are among the most-fancied teams in the re-formatted competition, with only three clubs going all the way more often in the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 season predictions than their 8.6%.

They’re given an 81% likelihood of progressing through the 36-team league phase and reaching the last 16, only behind FC Porto (87.6%) and Athletic Club (83%), while Spurs’ fixture schedule is also deemed to be among the most straightforward.

The average Opta Power Rating of their opponents is 83.6; only five clubs in the competition are deemed to have an easier set of games, with trips to Galatasaray, Rangers and Hoffenheim about as difficult as it gets on paper for Postecoglou’s men.

Tottenham would be advised against going into the competition too relaxed, however. Their record in Europe isn’t spectacular, failing to get beyond the last 16 in 11 of their last 13 participations in UEFA competitions.

In fact, in their most recent Europa League participation, they were knocked out by Dinamo Zagreb in the 2020-21 season despite winning their home leg 2-0, following that up with a 3-0 defeat in Croatia after extra-time thanks to a Mislav Orsic hat-trick.

Tottenham will be without Cristian Romero for this game after he was sent off in Tottenham’s last European game in March 2023, a 0-0 draw with AC Milan in the Champions League, while Richarlison and Wilson Odobert aren’t expected to be back in action for roughly another month.

Head-to-Head

This is the third meeting between Tottenham and Qarabag in major European competition, with Spurs winning both previous meetings in the 2015-16 group stage of the UEFA Europa League (3-1 and 1-0).

Qarabag have lost all six of their meetings with English sides in all competitions – twice against Spurs (2015-16), twice versus Chelsea (2017-18) and twice vs Arsenal (2018-19).

Tottenham vs Qarabag Prediction

Unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer makes Tottenham comfortable favourites for this one, winning 64.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Qarabag are given just a 16.6% likelihood of sneaking what would be a shock victory, while the draw is rated at 19.1%.

As mentioned before, Spurs are among the favourites to win the whole tournament; Qarabag, however, lift the trophy in just 0.2 % of the simulations, which is more often than just three teams.

Qarabag are given a 31.5% chance of getting to the last 16, though, which is better than clubs such as Ajax and Rangers.

Tottenham vs Qarabag Predicted Lineups

Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Destiny Udogie, Radu Dragusin, Micky van de Ven, James Maddison, Rodrigo Bentancur, Dejan Kulusevski, Son Heung-Min, Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson.

Head coach: Ange Postecoglou

Qarabag: Mateusz Kochalski, Elvin Cəfərquliyev, Kevin Medina, Bəhlul Mustafazadə, Matheus Silva, Marko Janković, Júlio Romão, Abdellah Zoubir, Yassine Benzia, Leandro Andrade, Juninho

Head coach: Gurban Gurbanov

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Tottenham are seeing more of the ball than any other Premier League team this season, but they’re not forging many clear sights of goal. We look at the numbers behind their struggles.

Among plenty of positives during Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham reign, there have been a few specific issues that have plagued his team.

Most of them have involved trying – or more accurately, failing – to keep the ball out of their own net.

A running theme has been their weakness at defensive set-pieces – something that was once again their downfall in Sunday’s north London derby defeat to Arsenal.

Then there is the height of their defensive line. “Suicidal” is a word that has been used to describe it by some watchers, given just how bold their high-line approach has been. Spurs have conceded a lot of chances as a result of opponents exploiting the space in behind their defenders, and plenty more potential opportunities have been prevented only by Micky van de Ven’s lightning-quick recovery runs. It was that high line and the space in behind that Newcastle exploited to score the winner in the recent meeting at St James’ Park.

Taking an optimistic view of their start to the season, though, you could argue it’s a positive that those are the only two times Spurs’ biggest issues have led to goals being conceded. In last season’s home match against Arsenal, for example, Spurs let in two goals from corners and one on the break. Defensively, it appears there has been some improvement, though clearly still not quite enough.

However, another issue has arisen – this time at the other end of the pitch. Spurs are struggling terribly to turn their possession and territory, both of which they are having a lot of, into goals and results.

Postecoglou’s men have averaged 67.8% possession in Premier League games this season, more than five percentage points higher than anyone else, with Manchester City second on 62.1%.

We can use a metric called field tilt to show that Spurs are playing their football higher up the pitch than everyone else, too. Field tilt measures territorial dominance between teams, looking at the share of possession each side has in their attacking third compared to their opponent. A field tilt of over 50% means your team makes more passes in the opposition’s final third than they make in your defensive third. Spurs’ field tilt of 78.4% is the highest in the Premier League this season, again ahead of Manchester City in second place.

In their four matches, Tottenham have produced four of the 14 highest field-tilt rates by any team in a Premier League game this season, as well as four of the 14 highest possession shares. They are dominating the ball all over the pitch.

They have scored six goals in four games, but four of them came against Everton, who put in a woeful display at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Matchday 2. Two goals in three games against Leicester City, Newcastle and Arsenal – games from which Tottenham took just one point – has left them 13th in the table, five points off the top four and already playing catch-up.

The problem hasn’t just been scoring goals. Anyone watching Spurs will tell you they have struggled to create good goalscoring opportunities despite seeing so much of the ball, the Everton game aside.

The numbers back up the eye test, too.

We can look at the number of times Spurs enter attacking parts of the pitch and the number of chances they create – as well as the quality of those chances – to show just how ineffective and inefficient they’ve been with the ball.

Tottenham are averaging 0.018 expected goals for every time they move the ball (either with a pass or a player carrying it) into the final third of the pitch in Premier League games this season. Only the three promoted sides and Everton – currently enduring their worst start to a league season since the 1950s – are producing lower numbers for every final-third entry.

But Tottenham are spending longer periods in the final third than those teams; rather than entering the attacking third of the pitch time and again (and racking up lots of final-third entries), we have seen them camped deep in opposition territory, moving the ball about within the final third for a long time.

It is more telling, therefore, to look at how often they have got the ball into the opposition’s penalty area; they have done so with a pass or carry more times this season than any other Premier League team, 198 times in their four games – an average of 49.5 times per game. In other words, they are getting into the penalty area more than once every two minutes, which – alone at least – is a hugely impressive rate.

But the final ball, the final movement to create a big chance is letting them down terribly.

Spurs are averaging 0.32 shots for every occasion that they enter the opposition’s penalty area – the lowest rate of all teams in the top flight this season. Meanwhile, only Ipswich (0.025), have generated a lower xG value for every penalty-area entry than Tottenham (0.028 xG). Put another way, Spurs are creating chances relative to the positions they are getting into less efficiently than every team bar Ipswich, who have only just come up from the Championship and have already faced both Liverpool and Manchester City.

Another way of looking at Spurs’ xG per penalty-area entry of 0.028 is that it means they need 35.4 penalty-area entries to generate 1.0 xG. In other words, they need to move the ball into the penalty area more than 35 times just to create enough chances for them to be expected to score one goal. For comparison, Manchester United need 16 penalty-area entries this season to generate 1.0 xG; Chelsea need 17.6; Aston Villa need 17.9 and Newcastle need 21.6. Those are the teams Spurs are likely to be chasing Champions League football with come May.

Given Spurs are scoring almost exactly in line with their expected goals, they are requiring a hell of a lot of territory and possession to produce each of their goals. And their numbers are skewed massively by the Everton result, too.

At the same time, they shouldn’t be criticised too much for how much they struggled against Arsenal. Mikel Arteta brought his weakened side across north London with the aim of frustrating their rivals and digging in for a clean sheet.

With defensive midfielders Jorginho and Thomas Partey parked in front of the defence, the visitors were content to let Tottenham have the ball, and they made themselves incredibly difficult to play through. They managed the game brilliantly and Spurs just could not find any rhythm.

But there did appear to be a lack of ambition in Tottenham’s attacking play; an unwillingness to take risks. On numerous occasions, their best players turned down a chance to take the ball on the half-turn into a gap or run at their direct opponent.

Arsenal have exceptional individual defenders – players who don’t get beaten in duels very often at all – so maybe Postecoglou told his attackers to be a bit more cautious on the ball, but every time one of them slowed down the attack, they allowed Arsenal to get back into their impenetrable shape.

Spurs attempted 21 dribbles to Arsenal’s 20, despite having 63.7% possession. Their five most attacking starters attempted just 13 dribbles, while Arsenal’s front four attempted 16. The game was better set up for Arsenal’s players to run and take opponents on, but given how much of the ball Spurs’ players saw, they surely should have taken more chances to try and beat their man.

Postecoglou has built a squad with lots of pace in the front three; runners who can get in down the flanks and put balls across the face of goal for a simple finish. Last season, we saw the archetypal Ange-ball goal scored time and again.

But this season, opponents have decided to make more effort to restrict the space in behind their defence for Spurs to attack and, so far, it doesn’t look like they have a solution to that puzzle.

James Maddison is one player with the talent to unlock a set defence, but he hasn’t been at his best since the ankle injury he picked up in that Chelsea game last November. Postecoglou could do with his midfielder rediscovering his best form.

But while that would naturally help matters, this issue can’t be solved by any individual. Tottenham’s manager needs to give his players the confidence to take more risks, to be willing to receive the ball on the half-turn in tight spaces and to try more things that might not come off. And he needs to work on making sure his team take advantage of any space the opposition afford them.

Much more possession without penetration, and patience might just start to wear thin.

Who will take the bragging rights in the north London derby? Follow along with the best facts, stats and live Opta data in our Tottenham vs Arsenal stats page.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Tottenham vs Arsenal stats from their Premier League meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own in-game and post-match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Tottenham vs Arsenal: Pre-Match Facts

Tottenham have lost five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W1 D1), more than they had in their previous 16 against their north London rivals (W6 D6 L4).

Arsenal have won their last two Premier League away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 such visits (D6 L9). They last won three consecutive away north London derbies between January 1987 and September 1988.

Arsenal against Tottenham is the fixture to have seen the most penalties awarded (26) and scored (24) in Premier League history. Indeed, of all Premier League fixtures to have seen at least 100 goals scored, the north London derby has seen the highest percentage netted from the spot (12.9% – 24/186).

Arsenal vs Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43), while it’s also the fixture to see the team score first fail to win more often than any other (29 – D19 L10).

Tottenham have conceded an own goal in each of their last three Premier League meetings with Arsenal (Hugo Lloris in January 2023, Cristian Romero in September 2023 and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in April 2024). No team has ever put through their own net in four consecutive meetings with an opponent in the competition before.

Just one of Tottenham’s last 49 Premier League home games has been drawn (2-2 v Man Utd in April 2023), and none of the last 22 (W15 L7). Of all grounds in Premier League history, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9% – 9/101), while it’s hosted more games without ever having a 0-0 than any other (101).

Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 Premier League away games (D1), keeping eight clean sheets in that run. They’ve won each of their last five on the road, last having a longer such winning run between March and September 2013 (8).

Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions; in the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more than the Korean.

Bukayo Saka scored home and away goals against Tottenham in the Premier League last season. The only Arsenal players to score in 3+ consecutive north London derby appearances in the competition are Emmanuel Adebayor (5 between 2006 and 2008) and Robert Pirès (4 between 2002 and 2004).

Raheem Sterling could make his Arsenal debut in this match – he would be the first player to make his Gunners bow in a north London derby since Isaiah Rankin in December 1997. Having scored against Spurs at White Hart Lane (with Liverpool) and Wembley Stadium (with Man City), he could become the third player to net a Premier League goal against them at all three of their home grounds, after Jamie Vardy and Aleksandar Mitrovic.

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Away wins in the north London derby are rare, but Arsenal have won their last two trips to Tottenham. This weekend, with their visitors missing key players, Spurs have a fantastic opportunity to dent their rival’s title hopes.

If Tottenham were being honest with themselves, they needed something to level the playing field.

Spurs have looked across north London enviously as Arsenal have gone from strength to strength under Mikel Arteta and forced their way into the title race in a way that their rivals haven’t truly managed in the modern era.

The gap between the two has gradually got bigger over the last couple of years, with Spurs enduring an entire season out of European competition last season while Arsenal went toe-to-toe with Manchester City for the title.

This season, Arsenal are still holding out hope of going one better and winning the Premier League for the first time since 2003-04; the best Tottenham can realistically hope for – in the league at least – is qualifying for the Champions League.

The two come into this weekend’s north London derby in very different places.

So one-sided have the last two meetings between the rivals been at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium that those in red would have been much more confident of a positive result in this game when the fixture list came out.

But now, Spurs have reason for hope.

For starters, football’s first £100 million bargain, Declan Rice, got the first red card of his senior football career against Brighton for two uncharacteristically silly yellow cards. He’ll miss Sunday’s game through suspension, which is a huge blow for Arteta. Rice started 37 of Arsenal’s 38 Premier League games last season and came off the bench in the other one.

But there was more bad news to come during the international break, as Martin Ødegaard limped out of Norway’s UEFA Nations League win over Austria on Monday with an ankle injury about which the national team’s doctor has since said: “Injuries like this take a minimum of three weeks. Anything else is a bonus.” He is a huge doubt for Sunday.

Ødegaard is arguably even more important to Arsenal, having started 101 of their last 105 Premier League games. He plays a crucial role out of possession by leading the press, and is also one of the team’s biggest attacking threats. Only six players have contributed more goals and assists in Premier League games since the start of 2022-23 than the Norwegian (40) and none of them play in central midfield; for Arsenal only Bukayo Saka (54) has.

For Arsenal to lose one of these key players for the north London derby leaves a big hole to be plugged. To potentially lose two is something far closer to a midfield crisis, particularly with a crunch game at Manchester City following a week later.

From Tottenham’s perspective, if Ødegaard were to miss out as well as Rice, they would be given a very significant glimmer of hope heading into Sunday’s game.

The chasm between the sides has been portrayed most starkly in Arsenal’s last two trips to N17. First, there was a comfortable 2-0 win in January 2023, in which Arsenal were 2-0 up by the time Spurs had even had three shots.

That was followed by April’s 3-2 victory, a game in which Arteta’ side raced into a three-goal lead by the 38th minute, and although they wobbled in the last half hour and conceded twice, those goals came from a disastrous error from David Raya and a penalty, and the visitors were very good value for the win. The scoreline flattered Ange Postecoglou’s side in his first home game against Arsenal.

Those games signalled a massive shift in power. Away wins in the north London derbies are usually extremely rare, and Arsenal had picked up two in a row without much difficulty at all.

Ahead of that first win, just 11.5% (seven out of 61) of north London derbies had been won by the away side – the lowest proportion of the 93 fixtures to be played at least 30 times in the Premier League era. Back then, there had been no away win in a league meeting between the sides since March 2014, when Arsenal won 1-0 at White Hart Lane thanks to a Tomás Rosicky winner.

Even after those two recent wins for Arsenal, just 14.1% of Premier League north London derbies have been won by the away side – the fourth-lowest proportion of fixtures to take place at least 30 times, and the second-lowest proportion of fixtures to take place at least 40 times.

A full-strength Arsenal would be huge favourites to make it three in a row weekend, but without two of their most important players, Spurs have the chance to end Arsenal’s winning streak. This is an opportunity they cannot afford to pass up.

Postecoglou’s side have made a very mixed start to the new campaign. There have been plenty of positives in their displays, with the team comfortably dominating possession and creating chances freely in all three games so far, but results have been all-too-typically inconsistent.

According to our expected points model, which uses expected goals data to simulate how each match should have ended based on the quality of chances the sides created, Spurs deserve to be three places higher in the table than they actually are. In other words, their results haven’t entirely reflected the quality of their performances and the chances they have created/conceded.

But creating chances is not even half the job. Spurs have been far too wasteful in front of goal; they should have put both the Leicester and Newcastle games to bed long before they conceded the final goal of the game too easily to draw and lose those matches. They are familiar issues – worryingly familiar, one might say.

They clearly do have enough to cause Arsenal problems, though. Arsenal had the stingiest defence in the Premier League last season, allowing their opponents just 28.4 xG, and conceding just 29 goals, but Tottenham were responsible for more of those expected goals than any other team (3.9 xG) and as many actual goals (4) as anyone else (level with Fulham – also 4).

This season, Arsenal have already given up 3.5 xG in their three games so far, which is more than five other teams (with the fairly major caveat that they played a sizeable chunk of the Brighton game with 10 men). Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins missed two huge chances against them.

In Son Heung-min, Spurs have a forward who loves playing in these games. He scored three goals in two games against Arsenal last season, and now has eight goals in north London derbies in the history of the fixture. Only three players have been more prolific than him in those games (Harry Kane – 14, Emmanuel Adebayor and Bobby Smith – both 10).

Arteta might well choose to approach this game like he does games against City and Liverpool, where his priority is stopping the opposition rather than attacking freely and looking to score goals. If Thomas Partey and Jorginho both start in a double pivot in front of the defence, Spurs might find it difficult to find a way through, and Arsenal will always pose a threat at the other end, even if their attacks are more limited to quick breaks up field and set-pieces. All three of their goals in last season’s 3-2 win at Tottenham came via these means.

But given the absentees from Arsenal’s first-choice midfield – not to mention new signing Mikel Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori and Gabriel Jesus all either being confirmed out or very doubtful – Spurs have a massive opportunity to reinstate the home advantage that has become a staple of the north London derby in the Premier League era.

One game won’t change anything about the gulf between the sides. They are on different planets right now, with wildly different hopes and expectations for the season.

But derbies aren’t just about long-term aims. Bragging rights mean a lot to the fans, and in a period when there has been precious little to gloat about for Tottenham supporters, this weekend is a big opportunity to give them something to cheer about.

Alexander Isak got the winner as Eddie Howe’s men held firm at St James’ Park. Re-live the game with the best facts, stats and Opta data with our Newcastle vs Tottenham stats page.

Alexander Isak got the decisive goal for Newcastle United in a hard-fought 2-1 win over Tottenham at St James’ Park on Sunday.

Ange Postecoglou’s side were the superior team for long stretches of the game and created some decent openings, but Newcastle sliced through them in the second half to seal victory through Isak.

It was his fifth Premier League goal against Tottenham, scoring more against no other side.

Harvey Barnes had given them a first-half lead, which was wiped out by a Dan Burn own goal. Isak, however, ensured Newcastle won their first two home league games of a top-flight season for the first time since 2000-01.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Newcastle vs Tottenham stats from their Premier League meeting at St James’ Park.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own post-match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Newcastle vs Tottenham: Post-Match Facts

Newcastle United have won both of their first two home matches of a league season for the first time since 2009-10 in the Championship, and first time in the Premier League since 2000-01.

Tottenham have lost four of their last six away Premier League games (W1 D1), more than their first 15 on the road under Ange Postecoglou beforehand (W6 D6 L3).

None of the last 80 league meetings between Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur have been goalless; it’s only the seventh fixture in English top-flight history to go 80+ games in a row without a 0-0.

This was Newcastle’s 26th Premier League win over Tottenham, their joint-most against a single opponent in the competition (also 26 v Aston Villa).

Since the start of last season, Alexander Isak has scored 15 Premier League goals at St. James’ Park, with only Erling Haaland (18 at Etihad Stadium) and Cole Palmer (16 at Stamford Bridge) scoring more at a single venue in this time.

Harvey Barnes has scored in back-to-back starts in the Premier League for the first time since November 2022 with Leicester City. He hadn’t scored in any of his first six league starts for Newcastle before this.

Newcastle’s Dan Burn scored his second Premier League own goal, and first since January 2021 against Wolves for Brighton.

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at St James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Two teams who have picked up four points from their opening two matches will be looking to land an early blow in the race for Europe.

Newcastle vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer has Newcastle United as very slight favourites to come away with the three points against Spurs on Sunday, with the Magpies winning 38.7% of pre-match simulations.

Newcastle were fouled more times than any other side in the opening two matchday of the Premier League this season (35), with Bruno Guimaraes (12) and Anthony Gordon (eight) the two most fouled players in the division.

Tottenham Hotspur had more touches in the opposition box than any other Premier League side across MD 1 and MD 2 (95), while only Ipswich (99) and Leicester (93) have allowed their opponents more touches in their own box than Newcastle (75).

Newcastle United host Tottenham Hotspur this Sunday as two teams with European aspirations clash at St James’ Park.

Each side has won one and drawn one of their opening two matches, with Newcastle narrowly beating promoted Southampton on the opening weekend before drawing at Bournemouth, while Tottenham drew away at Leicester City and then hammered Everton 4-0.

However, Tottenham’s superior goal difference means they head into Sunday’s game in fifth, with Newcastle just behind in sixth.

Sunday’s game should provide goals, with Newcastle against Tottenham the most played fixture in Premier League history to never finish 0-0.

In fact, only Liverpool against Tottenham (191) and Arsenal against Liverpool (190) have seen more goals than this in the competition (186), while there have been 34 goals in the last seven meetings alone (4.9 per game).

Newcastle are especially formidable in front of goal at home, scoring at least once in each of their last 20 Premier League home games. Only once have they had a longer scoring streak at St James’ Park in the competition, going 24 games between January 1995 and February 1996.

That could be worrying news for Spurs, who have now won just three of their last 14 on the road, drawing five and losing six. That follows the strong start to last season in which they went unbeaten in their first six Premier League away matches, winning four of them.

They’ll have to keep a watchful eye on Alexander Isak, who has scored twice in both of his two Premier League home games against Tottenham. Only two players have scored two or more goals in three consecutive home appearances against a club in the competition – Alan Shearer vs Everton (1992 to 1994) Chris Sutton vs Liverpool (1994 to 1996).

But Tottenham have attacking firepower of their own with the likes of Son Heung-min and James Maddison, the latter of whom has provided an assist in four of his last five Premier League games, including both matches so far this season. No Tottenham player has ever assisted a goal in each of their first three games in a single campaign before.

Tottenham have had seven shots on target in both of their Premier League matches so far this season, while also having nine against Sheffield United on the final day of last season. The last time they had seven or more shots on target in four consecutive league games was between December and January in the 2012-13 campaign (five).

In terms of team news, Eddie Howe has a headache at centre-back with Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles out injured, while Fabian Schär is still suspended after his red card against Southampton.

Tottenham, meanwhile, will be without Rodrigo Bentancur, Dominic Solanke and Richarlison, though Micky van de Ven is expected to be fit.

Newcastle vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Newcastle have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Tottenham, as many as in their previous 13 (two draws, eight defeat). Three of their last five league victories against Tottenham have been by at least a four-goal margin.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have lost their last two Premier League away games against Newcastle by an aggregate score of 10-1. They’d only lost two of their previous 11 such visits to St James’ Park (six wins, three draws).

The last meeting between the sides back in April ended in a humiliating defeat for Tottenham, who were thumped 4-0 at St James’ Park after a brace from Isak and goals from Anthony Gordon and Fabian Schar.

Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction

Home advantage could prove vital for Newcastle this weekend, and led by a vociferous crowd at St James’ Park, they win in 38.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Ange Postecoglou’s side, meanwhile, walk away from Sunday’s game with the three points themselves 37.7% of the time. A draw, which perhaps wouldn’t be a bad result for either team, occurs in 23.6% of simulations.

Both sides are expected to be gunning for the European spots this season, though it’s Newcastle who are given the higher chance of finishing in the top four, doing so in 22.6% of simulations to Tottenham’s 16.7%. However, Opta is predicting Newcastle to just miss out, with fifth their most likely finish, while Tottenham are anticipated to end the season in sixth.

Newcastle vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Lloyd Kelly, Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Tino Livramento, Joelinton, Bruno Guimarães, Sean Longstaff, Anthony Gordon, Jacob Murphy, Alexander Isak.

Tottenham Hotspur: Guglielmo Vicario, Destiny Udogie, Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero, Pedro Porro, James Maddison, Yves Bissouma, Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert, Brennan Johnson, Son Heung-Min.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League game at the King Power Stadium with our Leicester City vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Read on for all the key insights.

Leicester City vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

Tottenham are predicted to get off to a winning start to their campaign, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of victory at 49.9%.

Leicester City’s new boss Steve Cooper lost to Spurs in his final league game in charge of Nottingham Forest.

This is the seventh time Tottenham are starting their Premier League campaign against a promoted side; they have won five of the previous six such matches.

Ange Postecoglou enjoyed a strong first season in charge of Tottenham, and for many neutrals, Spurs were likely one of their favourite teams to watch in 2023-24.

However, they ultimately fell short of Champions League qualification, finishing fifth, and now the task for Postecoglou, who has been backed in the transfer market with big-money additions in Dominic Solanke, Archie Gray and now Wilson Odobert, is to build on those solid foundations and add a clinical edge to secure a spot in UEFA’s elite club competition.

Starting away at one of the newly promoted clubs could be tricky, though Spurs have begun their Premier League campaigns against promoted teams on six previous occasions, with their sole defeat coming against Sunderland in 2007.

However, Leicester, who won the Championship last season, are unbeaten on the last nine occasions they have started their league campaign with a home game (W6 D3). That being said, they have lost half of their Premier League games played on Mondays (21/42) – only in Friday games do the Foxes have a higher loss rate in the competition (61.5% – 8/13).

The hosts could do with a morale-boosting start, too. They have sold their best player from last term – Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall – and also seen manager Enzo Maresca depart, with both heading to Chelsea. They are facing the prospect of a potential points deduction for a breach of the Premier League’s financial regulations, so starting strong could be even more crucial.

Tottenham’s last four Premier League wins of 2023-24 came against each of the sides to finish in the bottom four (Forest, Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United). They won all six of their league games against promoted sides last term, accounting for 30% of their overall victories (6/20).

Solanke, who is expected to make his Spurs debut, will have the eyes on him after his club-record £65 million transfer from Bournemouth, though it is Son Heung-min who Leicester might have to be more concerned about.

Son has been involved in 13 goals in 14 Premier League appearances against Leicester (nine goals, four assists), only having a hand in more against Southampton (15). Indeed, the Korean has scored five and assisted once in his last three against the Foxes. Then, of course, there is former Leicester man James Maddison to throw into the mix on his return to the King Power Stadium. The playmaker contributed to 13 goals in the league last term (four goals, nine assists).

New Foxes boss Cooper will also be shorn of key attackers Jamie Vardy and Patson Daka, both of whom are injured.

Vardy – Leicester’s top scorer in the Championship last season with 18 goals – in particular could be a huge miss given his record against Spurs. The 37-year-old has scored eight Premier League goals against Tottenham, only netting more in his league career against Arsenal and Watford (11 each). Indeed, he has netted seven goals in eight MD1 appearances in the Premier League with only four players scoring more on the opening matchday in the competition’s history (Alan Shearer, Frank Lampard, Wayne Rooney and Mohamed Salah – eight each).

With no Vardy, it could indeed be a case of ‘no party’ for Leicester.

Leicester City vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Leicester beat Tottenham 4-1 in their last Premier League meeting in February 2023, last winning consecutive league games against Spurs in October 1999 (a run of three). However, Spurs beat Leicester in the previous four league encounters.

Expect goals in this one. Of all Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 30 times, Leicester against Tottenham has the highest goals-per-game average (3.8 – 128 goals in 34 games). There have been 28 goals scored in the last five meetings between the sides alone (5.6 per game).

Spurs have only failed to score in one of their 17 Premier League away games against Leicester, a 3-0 loss at Filbert Street in September 1997.

Leicester City vs Tottenham Prediction

Spurs are backed by Opta’s supercomputer for this one, with a 49.9% win likelihood.

Our model ranks Leicester’s chances at 26.5%, while the draw occurred in 23.6% of the 10,000 simulations.

Leicester City vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Leicester City: Mads Hermansen, James Justin, Wout Faes, Jannik Vestergaard, Ricardo Pereira, Kasey McAteer, Harry Winks, Wilfred Ndidi, Bobby De Cordova-Reid, Stephy Mavididi, Abdul Fatawu.

Tottenham Hotspur: Guglielmo Vicario, Destiny Udogie, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Pedro Porro, Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Sarr, Son Heung-min, James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Dominic Solanke.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.