The games keep coming thick and fast. This Wednesday, the Premier League offers a real treat: Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City. It’s a fixture that has come to guarantee entertainment, drama and goals in recent years.
Even at their peak under Pep Guardiola, the visitors have historically struggled with this test. Spurs have won four of the last six matchups between the two (not forgetting one of the performances of the season in November when they blitzed them 4-0 at the Etihad) and 17 of the last 29 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Fresh off a stinging defeat to Liverpool on Sunday, can City recover their form? We take a look at the markets and analyse the key betting angles.
Man City are favourites and that’s…confusing
Despite the poor record in North London, the fact they’ve lost four of their six games this month and the general malaise that’s crept over them this campaign, City are odds-on favourites to win.
That’s a surprise — especially when you add in the context of Tottenham’s recent uplift in form, which has seen them win their last three league games.
That run doesn’t tell the whole story; Spurs have been knocked out of both cups in that time, playing poorly at Anfield in the Carabao Cup and Villa Park in the FA Cup. But the market’s lack of faith in the hosts here should intrigue bettors as a home win is priced attractively.
A draw is priced similarly and could interest those who trust neither team to grab all three points. A word of warning on that, though: Tottenham haven’t drawn a game since Dec. 29.
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Son Heung-min, the scourge of Pep Guardiola
Very few players in history have caused Guardiola consistent headaches like Son Heung-min. The South Korean is probably the key reason why Man City’s record against Tottenham is so poor. His blend of speed, directness and finishing ability has proved a consistently unsolvable problem for the Catalan tactician.
In November’s 4-0 win over City, Son became just the second player to register 10-plus goals and assists against Pep’s team, with the other being Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah. That’s elite company to keep.
Son’s score or assist anytime odds in this fixture feel all the more enticing following his imperious performance against Ipswich Town on Saturday, where he teed up Brennan Johnson for two goals in a thumping 4-1 win. It’s almost as if the club captain was warming up for his favourite opponent.
Can Spurs crack the top half? Can City make top four?
It speaks to the mess Spurs have found themselves in this season that they’re priced at 7/4 to finish in the top half. Not the top four, not the top six, but the top half! Not since 2008 have they failed to meet that fairly basic mark.
The gap to Fulham in 10th place is currently six points, and there are just 12 games left in the season, meaning time is of the essence if they’re to make up that ground.
Achieving anything more meaningful than that is considered a long shot; they’re a whopping 25/1 to make the top six, while any chances of a top-four finish have been effectively dismissed (200/1).
Meanwhile, the bookmakers still consider Man City close to a lock to make the top six (1/10) and extremely like to finish in the top four (2/5). Again, that feels questionable; the Citizens may have a weight of history and boast incredible quality on paper, but the performances aren’t there.
Four teams — Newcastle United, AFC Bournemouth, Chelsea and Aston Villa — could all overtake them this midweek if they win and City lose, which would see Guardiola’s men drop to eighth in the table. That combination of results is unlikely, but it does tell you that the Citizens are just one bad week away from plummeting down the table, making the market’s confidence in them a little curious.
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